Grade 3, $750,000 Southwest Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Oaklawn Park, Feb. 27, 2021 (10 Derby qualifying points for first, 4 for second, 2 for third, 1 for fourth) Winner: Essential Quality, by Tapit Trainer: Brad Cox Jockey: Luis Saez Owner: Godolphin LLC Beyer Speed Figure: 96 The wait was worth it. ESSENTIAL QUALITY had his 2021 debut delayed by 12 days owing to the postponement of the Southwest when Oaklawn was waylaid by freezing temperatures earlier this month, but he looked like he picked up right where he left off at 2. The winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (https://www.drf.com/news/road-2021-kentucky-derby-breeders-cup-juvenile-analysis) was sharp in his first start in 3 1/2 months, earning a career-best Beyer Speed Figure while acting as though there’s more there. He never had raced nor even worked at Oaklawn, and never had competed on an off track, but he passed both those hurdles like he has everything else so far. He’s perfect in four starts, and will have one prep prior to the May 1 Kentucky Derby. Considering that he won two races last fall at Keeneland, the Blue Grass looks like an obvious spot, four weeks out from Derby Day and an easy ship from Churchill Downs. :: KENTUCKY DERBY 2021: Point standings, prep schedule, news, and more In this race, Essential Quality broke from the rail in the field of seven but was deftly angled to the three path, midpack, heading into the first turn to avoid getting trapped. From that perch, he was able to advance on leaders JACKIE’S WARRIOR and WOODHOUSE in the clear heading toward the far turn, raced alongside those two from the three to four path around the turn, kicked away in upper stretch, turned back a bid from SPIELBERG in midstretch, and drew away, with Saez never asking him for his best. As noted in the Breeders’ Cup analysis, he paddles with his left front, but that hasn’t slowed him down whatsoever. He’s the goods. Spielberg, who finished second, turned in by far his best race to date. He was tossing his head when the gate opened and came out several lengths behind the field, preventing him from having a realistic chance of trying to trap Essential Quality. He was caught four paths wide around the first turn, outside and just behind Essential Quality. He was at the rear of a compact field down the backstretch, remained three to four paths wide while following Essential Quality around the far turn, continued his extended run to midstretch, and though no match for the winner late was well clear of everyone else despite a trip in which he had every right to chuck it. Maybe he relished the sloppy conditions, but this was a significant step forward. Jackie’s Warrior, who was third, showed his customary early speed and led into the first turn, with Woodhouse tracking him. He led by at least a length through the first five furlongs while setting what looked like a comfortable pace, staved off Woodhouse going around the far turn but had no answer for Essential Quality, drifted out a bit coming off the bend, and steadily tired behind the top two. Maybe racing toward the inside wasn’t the place to be, but this was a disappointing performance considering the pace in this race and how well he had run in an adverse pace scenario in the Breeders’ Cup. He’s been sensational around one turn, and that seems what he’s best at, at least for now. Woodhouse, who was fourth, broke well and settled into second, just behind and outside of Jackie’s Warrior while in at least the three path around the first turn. He stayed in that spot to the far turn, engaged Jackie’s Warrior less than three furlongs from home, raced between Jackie’s Warrior and Essential Quality on the far turn, then began to weaken while under heavy encouragement approaching the top of the lane. He was angled out to the middle of the track, swapped over to his wrong lead for a few strides and then back to his correct lead – an indication he was worn out – and continued to tire and drift out. This was only his third start, and he faced some tough customers. If his connections don’t get overeager, he could be very useful, especially with a slight cutback in distance. LAST SAMURAI, who was fifth, was just inside Essential Quality while midpack around the first turn, started to lose ground between rivals heading to the far turn, was in the two to three path on the far turn, was angled to about the five path heading off the bend, but never had any punch. SANTA CRUISER, who was sixth, trailed on the first turn while in the two path, moved a bit closer while inside down the backstretch, continued to save ground on the far turn, and was outrun throughout. He’s been overmatched in stakes in three straight since beating maidens in a one-turn mile at Churchill Downs. He has first-level allowance conditions, something Calumet seems to avoid, but might be prudent. SAFFA’S DAY, who finished last of seven, saved ground around the first turn while following Jackie’s Warrior, stayed in that spot down the backstretch and around the far turn, had trouble keeping up while going around the far turn, was gradually angled wider and wider off the turn and through the lane but continued to retreat. He had been training at Oaklawn and had no official works showing in three weeks, no doubt owing to the closure of the surface there during the freeze, so he was up against it. That said, I thought last December in the Springboard Mile (https://www.drf.com/news/road-2021-kentucky-derby-springboard-mile-analysis) that his style and pedigree might work well on turf, and I’d love to see him give that a go.