Grade 1, $1 million Arkansas Derby, 1 1/8 miles, Oaklawn, April 10, 2021 (100 Derby qualifying points for first, 40 for second, 20 for third, 10 for fourth) Winner: Super Stock, by Dialed In Trainer: Steve Asmussen Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr. Owner: Erv Woolsey and Keith Asmussen Beyer Speed Figure: 92 Whether it’s the first race on a sleepy Thursday at Aqueduct or the Arkansas Derby, pace makes the race. It was paramount here, as a sharp pace set the race up for late runner SUPER STOCK, who got an ideal trip and moved forward in his second start of the year. Super Stock had finished fourth last month in the Rebel (https://www.drf.com/news/road-2021-kentucky-derby-rebel-stakes-analysis), which was won by Concert Tour. The Rebel is at 1 1/16 miles, this race is 1 1/8 miles, but the fractions for the Rebel (23.42, 47.53), over a comparable track to this, were significantly slower than the Arkansas Derby (22.62, 46.51). The faster pace of the Arkansas Derby was advantageous to Super Stock, and injurious to CADDO RIVER and CONCERT TOUR. The Rebel was the first start of the year for Super Stock, who got plenty of foundation last year, racing six times as a 2-year-old, though he looked like he was a cut below the division’s best. He did get a career-best fig in the Rebel, and topped that here, so he’s heading in the right direction. But the fig of this race, and the race shape, casts some doubt on the field going forward – Super Stock because he got a dream setup, Caddo River and Concert Tour because if they get a contested heat they don’t seem, at this stage of their careers, of handling it well. This is a Kentucky Derby, though, that has had significant absences develop in recent weeks (Life Is Good and Greatest Honour, to name two, with more always a possibility), so Super Stock isn’t as far from the top as he was a month ago. :: KENTUCKY DERBY 2021: Point standings, prep schedule, news, and more In this race, Super Stock was bumped leaving the gate by Caddo River, then followed Caddo River while saving ground around the first turn. He stayed in that spot down the backside and to the far turn, remained inside to the stretch, was slightly late to change leads while being angled outside the dueling leaders in upper stretch, then pushed past the two worn-out leaders in the final sixteenth. It took 39.67 seconds for the final three furlongs to be run, underscoring how this race fell apart. Remember, too, that the final furlong at Oaklawn is slightly downhill, yet that took 13.28 seconds. Caddo River, who finished second, veered in at the start to bump Super Stock, was hustled to make the lead, and was pretty keen while setting a sharp pace while shadowed by Concert Tour. He was pushed along approaching the quarter pole to try and stave off Concert Tour, lost the lead at midstretch, but battled back to edge Concert Tour for second while no match for the winner late. Extra distance does not look like it will suit at the moment. Concert Tour, who was third, broke well and went into the first turn just behind and outside of Caddo River. He was under a firm hold, but they were rolling, so to make the top he would have had to go even faster, which doesn’t seem wise. He sat in what looked like a good stalking spot, seemed to be going the better of Caddo River heading into and around the far turn, took awhile to finally push past Caddo River in upper stretch, but was rubber-legged when Super Stock ranged outside him, and he lost the place late to a horse he had passed. Very disappointing run for a horse who, had he romped here, might very well have been the Derby favorite. Now, he’s one of the race’s major questions. He apparently needs to be let roll early, but if there’s other speed, what’s the price he pays? His 87 Beyer in this race is his worst number in four starts. GET HER NUMBER, who was fourth, added front-leg wraps for this race. He was three paths wide at the back of a compact field heading into the first turn, then was squeezed out of there, took up, and trailed. He launched a rally while three to four paths wide on the far turn, and raced evenly late. The early trouble looks worse than it was. He ended up with a favorable pace scenario and couldn’t make up the necessary ground late despite the glacial closing fractions. He’s a useful horse, just not this good, with a career-best Beyer, earned here, of 87. LAST SAMURAI, who was fifth, broke awkwardly to his outside leaving the gate, then was outside a four-horse spread at the rear of a compact field heading into the first turn. He went into the far turn in the three path, outside Super Stock and HOZIER, but had nothing when called upon three furlongs out and retreated. Hozier, who was last of six, raced between rivals at the rear of a compact field in the two path around the first turn, continued between rivals while following stablemate Concert Tour down the backstretch, but gave way between rivals early on the far turn. He dropped down to the rail, but remained well back in a poor effort for a colt who looked, off his second-place finish in the Rebel, as if he was making progress.