Road to the 2020 Kentucky Derby: Peter Pan Stakes analysis

Grade 3, $100,000 Peter Pan Stakes, 1 1/8 miles, Saratoga, July 16, 2020
(50 Derby qualifying points for a win, 20 for second, 10 for third, 5 for fourth)

Winner: Country Grammer, by Tonalist
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Owner: Paul Pompa Jr.
Beyer Speed Figure: 95

COUNTRY GRAMMER was significantly impacted by the postponement of racing in New York earlier this year. As noted following his performance in the Fountain of Youth, he was scheduled to go to New York and tune up for the Derby in the Wood Memorial. Instead, he wound up not racing again until June 4, two months after the Wood would have been run, and ended up in a race where the winner freaked. It looks like he’s now able to get into a routine of racing and training. That, and the forward move he made here, bodes well for him in coming months.

His next stop is likely to be the Travers Stakes, against divisional leader Tiz the Law, so that will be a formidable test. But he has the look of a late-developing colt who is going to be better the older he gets. Whether he improves enough by early August to win the Travers, or early September to be effective in the Derby, might be asking a lot. But he does not appear to have reached his ceiling, and until he does, it would be unwise to overlook this colt.

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In this race, Country Grammer saved ground while midpack around the first turn, then moved closer when the pace slowed noticeably during the second quarter-mile, which was run in 24.89 seconds. He saved ground on the far turn while following pacesetter MO HAWK, got through inside the tiring Mo Hawk heading into the lane, was headed by CARACARO in midstretch, but fought back gamely to prevail.

Caracaro, who finished second, ran a remarkable race for a horse who hadn’t competed since January, was making only his third start, his stakes debut, his first start against winners, his first start in a stakes, and his first start around two turns. He broke well and went around the first turn in a perfect spot, behind the two leaders. He moved closer during that slow second quarter, was even with Country Grammer a half-mile out, was sent along from the three path around the far turn, poked his head in front of Country Grammer a furlong out, but couldn’t quite stay with the winner in the closing yards. This was a giant effort coming off a lengthy layoff. He obviously has talent. My concern would be a “bounce” if brought back too quick.

MYSTIC GUIDE, who was third, was exiting the same allowance race as Country Grammer. He was allowed to dawdle toward the rear of the pack around the first turn, a position that did him no favors when the pace slowly noticeably in the second quarter. He split horses heading to the far turn, saved some ground before being tipped about five paths wide entering the lane, then finished with enthusiasm before being allowed to coast home in the final yards when it was obvious he was neither going to improve his position nor was he in jeopardy of having someone catch him. This was a better-than-looked effort, considering the race flow for a horse who was making his stakes debut and was racing for only the fourth time. There’s upside here.

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CELTIC STRIKER, who was fourth, bobbled leaving the gate but recovered quickly to enter the first turn just behind and outside the leader, Mo Hawk. He moved to challenge for the lead heading around the far turn, couldn’t stay with the top two entering the lane, and gradually faded.

MODERNIST, who was fifth, did not break alertly, then didn’t immediately respond to his rider’s urging leaving the gate and went into the first turn toward the rear of the pack while following Country Grammer. He saved ground on the far turn while following Country Grammer, was tipped to the three path coming off the bend, but had no appreciable response while just going through the motions. His last two races were both poor. He might need a freshening.

CHESTERTOWN, who was sixth, was midpack while three to four paths wide entering the first turn, entered the far turn in the two path alongside Modernist, got fanned about four paths wide entering the lane, and had nothing to offer.

CANDY TYCOON, who was seventh, stumbled leaving the gate, leaving him last. He was taken to the rail around the first turn, was caught in traffic behind Modernist when the pace slowed down the backstretch, lost contact with the field around the far turn, and only passed two exhausted rivals late. The stumble at the start took him completely out of his game, but he didn’t show much after that either. He showed some promise on the turf last year, and that might be an avenue to pursue in coming months.

Mo Hawk, who was eighth, broke alertly from the rail and led into the first turn, got away with a dawdling second quarter-mile, led narrowly into the far turn, tired and came off the rail nearing the quarter pole while offering no resistance, and surrendered.

KATZARELLI, who finished last of nine, couldn’t get over from his wide draw and went into the first turn in the four path while midpack, made about a 100-yard rally in the four path early on the far turn, but was done after that, stopped badly, and was not persevered with through the lane.