Grade 1, $300,345 Los Alamitos CashCall Futurity, 1 1/16 miles, Los Alamitos Race Course, Dec. 8, 2018 (10 Derby qualifying points for a win, 4 for second, 2 for third, 1 for fourth) Winner: Improbable, by City Zip Trainer: Bob Baffert Jockey: Drayden Van Dyke Owner: WinStar Farm LLC, China Horse Club International Ltd., and Starlight Racing Beyer Speed Figure: 96 IMPROBABLE finished off his impressive 2-year-old campaign with a dominating victory in this race to remain unbeaten after three starts and stamp himself as one of the top Kentucky Derby prospects heading into the winter. He draws comparisons to a couple of Baffert-trained runners of recent years. Improbable has been on the same schedule thus far as Dortmund, who went into the 2015 Derby unbeaten but happened to be born the wrong year: his career plateaued when he had to face American Pharoah. Improbable and Dortmund won a maiden race at Santa Anita, then a one-turn mile at Churchill Downs, before stretching out to win this race. Improbable also invites comparisons to Justify, the 2018 Triple Crown winner, as both are good-sized colts for their age and have similar ownership. Improbable was heavily favored to win, so the result was not surprising, but the way in which he did it continued his forward progress. His Beyer numbers have increased in every start, and his fig in this race compares favorably with what likely divisional champion, and stablemate, Game Winner has done so far. In this race, Improbable saved ground into the first turn and then was able to advance into a three-wide stalking position around the first turn right after SAVAGERY veered out, causing DUELING – who had been right alongside Improbable – to veer out sharply to avoid potential disaster. Not that Improbable needed any help, but that incident gave him an early opportunity to flee the rail and set up shop right behind and outside of stablemate MUCHO GUSTO and Savagery. He was quite keen turning into the backstretch, but then came to hand during the long run down the backside. He ranged up three wide around the far turn and into the lane, was asked for his best, and drew away late. I particularly liked that he flew through the fourth quarter-mile of the race in less than 24 seconds after attending a fairly sharp pace. Also, based on his win at Churchill Downs – in which he overcame plenty of trouble – I’m wondering if he’s even better when he gets some cover, like a grass horse. He is bred for turf, but any chance of trying that surface is obviously going to wait until after the spring classics. Mucho Gusto, who finished second, used his sharp speed to get over from his outside post and led into the first turn. He led narrowly over Savagery down the backstretch, was challenged in earnest by Savagery going around the far turn, got the best of Savagery but was immediately tackled by Improbable. He couldn’t go with Improbable in the final furlong, though he was well clear of everyone else. EXTRA HOPE, who was third, had to shift out to avoid Savagery – in turn severely bothering Dueling – and ended up in the four path, just outside Improbable, turning into the backstretch. He was outrun initially on the far turn while dropping back to last and racing between rivals, followed Improbable into the lane, and kept to his task while no match for the top two. He acts like the kind of horse who won’t be impacted by distance whatsoever. Savagery, who crossed the wire fourth, broke sharpest and then was right behind Mucho Gusto heading into the first turn when he shifted out, causing all the mayhem. He took up a stalking position just behind and outside of Mucho Gusto, was almost on even terms with Mucho Gusto heading into the stretch, but steadily tired through the lane. He was disqualified from fourth to fifth and placed behind Dueling. Dueling, who originally was fifth, was racing right outside Improbable heading into the first turn but had to angle out sharply to avoid Extra Hope, who had veered into his path when Savagery came out. Dueling took the worst of it, being fanned to about the eight path. He raced wide while last into the backstretch, made an extended run around the far turn while four paths wide to get to the hip of Improbable, but failed to go on with it while obviously having been compromised by his trip. He was moved to fourth on the DQ of Savagery. At this point, though, he looks like he’s a cut below the best. KING OF SPEED, who finished last of six, bobbled leaving the gate and then was forced to check, putting him last soon after the start. He saved ground around the first turn, continued to save ground down the backstretch and around the far turn, was asked to advance midway on the far turn but couldn’t keep up and then faded badly down the lane. He’s a stakes winner on grass and it seems that surface is his best option going forward.