David Aragona TAJ MAHAL is not the kind of horse I would typically endorse since he’s unproven at the class level and might need to negotiate a different trip from those that have worked recently. Yet I just can’t shake the feeling that this horse is the real deal. It’s not as if he’ll need to progress much from his recent Federico Tesio romp to win a Preakness that is sorely lacking in star power. Taj Mahal overcame a difficult outside post position in his final local prep, having to be aggressively ridden into the clubhouse turn before running away to a clear lead. Expending that much energy should have caught up with him late in the race, but he settled down on the backstretch and then kicked on again when asked. He doesn’t have the biggest stride for a son of Nyquist, but he’s able to sustain the length of those strides deep into his races, an indicator of stamina. While trainer Brittany Russell has expressed frustration at drawing the rail, that’s generally not a bad place to be in dirt routes at Laurel. This horse showed the ability to rate and finish on debut, and jockey Sheldon Russell has a knack for getting horses to settle. It’s generally wise to give preference to Kentucky Derby starters in the Preakness, but the options in that category are fairly limited this year. From that group, INCREDIBOLT seems most likely to make an impact in Maryland. His Derby performance was hardly stellar, but it was still a respectable showing against a field that was vastly superior to this one. He proved that distance was no issue, and he trounced Derby rival Ocelli when they met in the Virginia Derby. NAPOLEON SOLO is a tough call. I believe he’s the most naturally talented horse in the field, but I really don’t think he wants to go this far. He ran well considering the circumstances in the Wood Memorial, having to deal with a fast pace and foot issues that interrupted his training. Now, he’s working like the horse that won the Champagne last year, but of course that was a one-turn mile. The other major player exiting the Derby, OCELLI, ran better than Incredibolt on the day. Yet he did benefit more from that race’s torrid pace, rating some five to six lengths behind that rival early. He has obviously improved since they took the blinkers off. Yet it’s easy to see why he remains a maiden when you watch his replays. He resents kickback, lugs in through the stretch, and hangs late in his races. I’ll use him underneath. Mike Beer With only three Derby longshots brave enough to attempt running back two weeks later in the Preakness, this could be the year for a talented 3-year-old, however light on experience, to take his shot at winning a classic race. THE HELL WE DID has the looks and pedigree to continue to improve with the simple addition of time and distance. He did show flashes of talent in his two starts last year, doing so despite a noticeable lack of focus. After a winter break, he returned to face a weak field in a six-furlong race restricted to horses who had never won two races, and he looked all grown up galloping away from that field in fast time. The Grade 3 Lexington was not only his first real class test, but it also was his first start beyond six furlongs, and first around two turns. He handled it well, finishing second to a perfect-trip winner after pressing the pace. In the Preakness, he can be ridden more patiently, and if a better trip leads to a forward move, this is a field that he can be competitive with at a price. NAPOLEON SOLO’s fast win in the Grade 1 Champagne last October suggested he was one of the more talented colts in this year’s crop. That was over seven months ago, and considering how things have shaken out since, he still might be highly rated on that list. Things haven’t gone according to plan for this horse, and he still has to prove he can handle longer distances, but his early speed remains intact and he can take this field a long way on the lead. IRON HONOR earned one of the top Beyer Speed Figures in this field for his maiden win, then stretched out to a mile to win the Grade 3 Gotham in his next start. In the Wood Memorial, he was done in by a tough outside post and a fast pace (he also had trouble on the first turn), after which his connections wisely elected to skip the Derby. He is all upside, and this plan has worked well for Brown’s prior Preakness winners, both of whom bypassed the Derby despite being eligible to run. INCREDIBOLT was a late addition to the Preakness, likely only entering when it was apparent the field was going to be of lesser quality than what he met when finishing sixth in the Derby. This wasn’t the plan, and he might wind up being the favorite, but he is clearly a strong contender if he fires his best shot. Brad Free IRON HONOR, if he can relax behind the speed while removing blinkers, can win the Preakness notwithstanding a seventh-place finish in the Wood Memorial. After two high-figure wins around one turn, including the Grade 3 Gotham, Iron Honor ran better than it looks in the Wood. He broke from an outside post, got slammed by a rival into the first turn which caused him to get amped up, chased the pace, hung tough into the lane, and then tired. It wasn’t as bad as it looks on paper. Trainer Chad Brown is 2 for 4 with Preakness runners exiting the Wood. Both winners (Cloud Computing, 2017; Early Voting, 2022) were making their fourth start, the same as Iron Honor. Bred to route but unproven in a route, Iron Honor can win with a forwardly placed trip if he reproduces the figures that he earned in his first two starts around one turn. Iron Honor is not a particularly creative selection, nor is this year’s Preakness a particularly compelling race. OCELLI, a late-running maiden, comes off a third-place finish in the Kentucky Derby, a race in which he took advantage of a pace meltdown and missed by only a length. He will get pace to flatter his rally; 17 of the last 25 spring Preakness winners were horses exiting the Kentucky Derby. INCREDIBOLT also exits the Derby, finishing a creditable sixth after dominating the Virginia Derby two starts back. Each start by Incredibolt is better than the start before. CHIP HONCHO is an upset candidate, making his first start in two months following a fifth in the Louisiana Derby. A stakes winner and graded stakes-placed, Chief Honcho skipped the Derby to aim for the Preakness, the same pattern as Iron Honor. Taj Mahal is 3 for 3, all at Laurel, including a romp in the Federico Tesio Stakes last out. However, Tesio winners are historically up against it in the Preakness (0 for 15, one third since 2000). Also, Taj Mahal probably will not get the same easy-pace trip he benefited from in the Tesio. From the rail post in the Preakness, he is likely to be under pressure. Front-runner Napoleon Solo ran as well as Iron Honor in the Wood. Napoleon Solo set the pace and only faded late in a race dominated by closers. Not sure if he is as good as last year, when he won the one-turn Grade 1 Champagne, but he will be involved in the pace. Steadily improving Corona de Oro, third in the Lexington Stakes after dueling inside, could get a more comfortable trip from post 11. Bombs away at 30-1? Marcus Hersh Forget OCELLI’s Derby odds of 70-1. His third-place finish didn’t come from nowhere and was even better than one might first realize. Ocelli dropped hints of real quality months ago, especially in his two Fair Grounds races and particularly the second. But the horse has proven his own worst enemy – with an assist from the humans on his back – victimized by a series of bad trips. I don’t know if Ocelli can race inside horses, but no rider this year has tried, so he’s always wide. And after blinkers went on in January, Ocelli didn’t want to relax during the early and middle stages of races. I’m sure that played a role in his series of classically tough trips. A sure way to lose with a plausibly worthy winner: Make a premature move, say, at the half-mile pole, and either ask or permit the horse to pass rivals and push forward while racing around the far turn four or five paths off the rail without cover. We have just described all of Ocelli’s stakes starts – including the Derby. There’s more. Ocelli likes to cock his head right after turning into the homestretch. In related news, he’s slow to change leads and lugs in. This bad habit came to a head in the Virginia Derby, where Ocelli loomed a winner in upper stretch. We saw some progress with blinkers removed for the Wood. Ocelli pulled and lugged in less, but he still made homestretch mistakes. He did so in the Derby, too, laying in on Commandment as Ocelli forged forward at the three-sixteenths pole. From there, Ocelli kept, by his standards, a straight course. The Derby fell to Golden Tempo’s last widest move. Ocelli made the first wide move, flying around the far turn. It was easily his best sustained run, but, frankly, one that began at least a furlong too soon. Get the timing right, and Ocelli gets home this time. We can all see there’s a ton of speed in the race. I still just want CHIP HONCHO to go forward and let the, um, chips fall where they may. He’s a different horse racing on the lead. He’s also fresh and has a higher ceiling than most here. INCREDIBOLT will suit the Preakness better than the Derby. He ran decently enough at Churchill, but I’d guess it’s not a coincidence that his big win this year came in a one-turn race. Longshot THE HELL WE DID made his two-turn debut in the Lexington and ran like a horse who would improve in his second route race. :: Get Preakness Betting Strategies for exclusive wagering insights, contender analysis, and more Mike Welsch NAPOLEON SOLO tipped his hand with an eye-catching work punctuated by a monstrous gallop-out prior to his breakout performance in the 2025 Champagne, and from all reports he has touted himself again with a brilliant 1:10 six-furlong clocking over the Belmont training track on May 2, after which he galloped out a mile in an astounding 1:36, per track clockers. He is obviously a question mark at the distance and one of an abundance of speed types in this lineup, but that should assure the price will be right on the only Grade 1 winner in the field. He might just run ’em all off their feet. INCREDIBOLT trained about as well as anyone in the weeks leading up to the Kentucky Derby, and he certainly turned in a very creditable effort against a field that was decidedly stronger than the one he’ll encounter in the second leg of this year’s Triple Crown. He has the right running style to perhaps become the major beneficiary of what should prove another very lively pace. Looking for a real bomb? Why not try BULL BY THE HORNS, one of the relatively few true late-runners in this lineup who, granted, must improve leaps and bounds from a Beyer Speed Figure standpoint. He appears capable of handling the distance and looked very good in his final morning prep for the race last weekend at Gulfstream Park. In dangerous hands, he might be along for at least a share at big balloons. For a brief moment, the well-traveled OCELLI appeared to be on his way to a stunning upset in midstretch of the Derby as the leaders started collapsing up front. On paper, he figures to find a similar scenario unfolding in this event as well. Perhaps it is just a question of whether he, like Incredibolt, can repeat that kind of performance returning on relatively short rest. He should grab at least a piece of the pie once again if he does. Chip Honcho was training very forwardly when taken out of consideration for the Derby in lieu of this much softer spot. His effort behind Paladin in the Risen Star certainly makes him a major player with this group. The chief concern is his running style and desire to be in the early mix, considering he shares that same preference with so many others in this lineup. :: Get ready for Preakness with DRF past performances, picks, and betting strategies!