Nine starts, five wins, three seconds, and one third-place finish into her career, the multiple Group 1-winning filly Porta Fortuna finally should go favored when she faces six rivals Friday at Newmarket in the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes. Porta Fortuna never has been the public choice but has proven a choice 2- and 3-year-old filly, quietly emerging as one of the better female milers in Europe. Winner of the Group 1 Cheveley Park last fall, Porta Fortuna somehow lost the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, her second-place Santa Anita finish behind Hard to Justify difficult to figure at this juncture. Hard to Justify in her lone post-Breeders’ Cup start raced uncompetitively in the Group 2 Edgewood Stakes, while Porta Fortuna finished a strong second in the 1000 Guineas in May before posting a one-length victory over favored Opera Singer in the Group 1 Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot. The one-mile Falmouth, run down a straightaway on Newmarket’s July course, traditionally marks the first major race in which 3-year-old fillies test older rivals, and Porta Fortuna gets nine pounds from 4-year-old Running Lion, a solid second choice in antepost wagering Wednesday. Jockey Tom Marquand, aboard for the last two starts, has a contractual obligation to ride at York on Saturday, but trainer Donnacha O’Brien has found a suitable replacement for Porta Fortuna in the great Ryan Moore. Far from flashy, Porta Fortuna never has run below expectations and possesses the tactical pace to avoid seriously compromising trouble, and the going shouldn’t get her beat. Summer has been wet and rainy in England so far this year. The Newmarket course Wednesday was rated soft with more rain possible into Thursday, and high temperatures the rest of the week not much over 60 degrees, allowing little chance for drying. Porta Fortuna could prefer a course rated good or firmer but did win her debut over heavy going and has run to form at the five racecourses she’s visited. :: Bet the races with a $200 First Deposit Match + FREE All Access PPs! Join DRF Bets. Running Lion, trained by John and Thady Gosden, flopped in her two previous Group 1 tries, finishing last of 15 in the 2023 French Oaks and eighth this past autumn in the British Champions Fillies and Mares. The filly appears quirky, as inconsistent as Porta Fortuna has been steady. She did lack room to operate two races ago in the Princess Elizabeth at Epsom, her jockey easing her across the finish, last of eight after never getting to stride out in the final furlong. On the other hand, Running Lion didn’t travel through that race like a filly ready to hit a gap in full flight. She probably shows her best ridden like she was winning the Group 2 Duke of Cambridge last month at Royal Ascot, where jockey Oisin Murphy put her on the lead and let Running Lion gallop along without taking pressure. She found plenty in the late stages of that one-mile contest, but the nine pounds she gives the 3-year-olds Friday feels formidable. Betting support reasonably has flowed as well to 3-year-old A Lilac Rocca, who’s done nothing wrong in a four-start career other than finish a solid second behind a fine performance from Fallen Angel in the Irish 1000 Guineas. A Lilac Rocca, trained by Paddy Twomey, pulled a favorable trip last out at The Curragh, finishing gamely between horses after Fallen Angel got the jump on her. She beat Opera Singer last fall and more than anyone else in the Falmouth has latitude for considerable improvement. :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.