Point Proven has run better than his record shows

Nobody was beating I’m Very Busy in the Muniz Memorial on March 23 at Fair Grounds. I’m Very Busy, a Churchill Downs flop in May aside, is one of the best turf horses in North America, and he was primed for the Muniz, which he won by nearly four lengths.

Point Proven, however, ought to have done considerably better than his seventh-place Muniz showing, though his finishing position in the race makes him an even better bet in the featured seventh race Thursday at Churchill Downs.

Point Proven is part of an overflow field entered in a third-level allowance race with a $100,000 claiming option carded for 1 1/16 miles on turf. With rain coming Wednesday into Wednesday night, the Thursday feature could wind up on the main track, but that doesn’t disqualify Point Proven, a 15-1 chance on the track’s morning line.

Four-year-old Point Proven had both a strong and unlucky Fair Grounds winter while coming strongly to hand for trainer Alice Cohn.

In a November allowance race, he was impeded while rallying between horses in the homestretch.

He almost won the Woodchopper in December despite nearly being dropped at the seven-sixteenths pole, and was beaten only by Gigante, who finished second in the Muniz.

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In a January allowance race, Point Proven got stuck too far behind a sluggish pace, and Chasing the Crown got the jump on him, holding clear Point Proven, who whistled a final quarter-mile in 22.18 seconds, much faster than Chasing the Crown, a good second to Ottoman Fleet last weekend in the Grade 3 Arlington.

A February allowance race got rained off turf but Point Proven sling-shotted through the final three furlongs to win going away with an 89 Beyer.

Then, there was the Muniz, where Point Proven went off a 59-1 shot. Point Proven hardly is a speedball, but did he really need to be sitting last of 13th after six furlongs had been run? All was lost at that point and Point Proven did well to come within 2 3/4 lengths of second. His fourth quarter-mile, 23.97, was second fastest only to I’m Very Busy, and his final furlong, 11.79, was faster than everyone except I’m Very Busy and third-place Webslinger, who returned to finish third in the Grade 1 Turf Classic.

Quietly, Point Proven has the best recent turf form in this field, though he won’t be bet like that sort of horse.

Cash Equity, second in the Barbados Gold Cup last out, probably is the main competition on turf. Two horses entered main track only, Warrior Johny and Classic Catch, should contend on dirt, and trainer Brad Cox likely wouldn’t mind a rain-off for Salute the Stars.

Salute the Stars won the Pegasus on dirt last summer at Monmouth Park before finishing an overmatched fourth in the Grade 1 Haskell. His 3-year-old campaign ended with an eighth on turf in the Virginia Derby, and Salute the Stars looks more like a dirt horse.

Cox on Thursday is set to run his first 2-year-old of 2024, and Summer Vibes stands a great chance of winning race 1. By Good Magic, Summer Vibes is out of Summer Sweet, whose 3-year-old filly She Feels Pretty is a Grade 1 winner.

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Workout video of gate breezes on May 10 and May 25 offers encouragement, though Summer Vibes didn’t break especially well in either breeze. She did show good speed after finding her stride, finishing strongly and galloping out best while coming outside two workmates May 25, one of them an unraced daughter of the brilliantly fast Lady Aurelia.

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