The Pizza Man in better spot in Stars and Stripes

How, one might wonder, can The Pizza Man win the Grade 3, $100,000 Stars and Stripes Stakes on Saturday at Arlington when he could not even crack the top three June 17 in the Black Tie Affair Handicap for Illinois-breds?

The answer is that races are not run in a vacuum, and while The Pizza Man did not show his best in the Black Tie Affair, there were salient reasons.

The race was his first as a 7-year-old, and The Pizza Man had every right to be ring-rusty after a layoff of nearly seven months. As easily the most accomplished horse in the race, The Pizza Man toted 128 pounds, six to 13 pounds more than his rivals. A storm hit Arlington during the card, turning the turf very soft. A horse got loose on the lead, The Pizza Man had too much to do, and at 1 1/16 miles, the Black Tie Affair fell well short of his ideal distance.

Excuses abound, and even though he is stepping up in class, The Pizza Man could be in a better spot Saturday while facing as many as eight rivals in the Stars and Stripes. The race’s 1 1/2-mile trip is right up his alley, The Pizza Man carries 117 pounds, and the Arlington turf should be firm as The Pizza Man is reunited with former regular rider Florent Geroux.

The Pizza Man has become so intimately tied to the Stars and Stripes that perhaps someday the race will bear his name. The Pizza Man, bred and owned by Midwest Thoroughbreds, finished third in the 2013 Stars and Stripes, won it in 2014, won it again in 2015 on his way to an Arlington Million victory, and finished fourth, beaten a head, a year ago.

Two entrants, One Go All Go and Applicator, are cross-entered in other races Saturday, and since both are pace players, their presence or absence will alter the race shape. In any case, The Pizza Man’s main competition figures to come, not surprisingly, from two Mike Maker-trained entrants.

Maker’s stable is as well stocked with long-distance grass horses as any in the country, and in Keystoneforvictory and Flashy Chelsey, he has two candidates to give him his third Stars and Stripes win in the last five years.

Keystoneforvictory has won three of his last five starts, and though he was facing lesser competition, he showed last out at Gulfstream that he can stay 1 1/2 miles. But Flashy Chelsey could be the greater danger. Maker and owner Michael Hui claimed him for $62,500 out of his most recent start on June 4, and Maker surely had his eye on the horse after Flashy Chelsey flew home to just miss catching Keystoneforvictory in the Claiming Crown Emerald last December.

DRF Formulator shows that when running horses first off the claim in turf races between 1 1/8 and two miles over the past five years, Maker has a record of 29-6-1-7 and a $3.58 ROI.

Dig deeper in Derby

At first glance, the Grade 3, $100,000 American Derby looks like a two-horse race: Sonic Boom is the 7-5 favorite and Gorgeous Kitten the 9-5 second choice.

But it might pay to look at least one horse deeper and give Hembree a shot.

Hembree made his first four starts on turf and his last two on dirt, and while his dirt races earned higher speed figures, he probably returns to the proper surface Saturday.

“I think he’s a grass horse,” trainer Joe Sharp said.

Hembree won his career debut in a Saratoga turf sprint last summer, rallied for second in the Sunday Silence at Louisiana Downs, then suffered through significant trouble while finishing a respectable sixth in the Grade 3 Bourbon at Keeneland, coming out of the race with a shin injury, Sharp said.

Hembree, according to Sharp, was a couple of works away from true fitness in his Fair Grounds comeback start, then switched to dirt, and the sum of his form makes him look like a live third choice under leading rider Jose Valdivia.

Sonic Boom is the field’s only stakes winner, having captured the $75,000 Columbia over the Tampa turf. Sonic Boom probably didn’t love a wet course when seventh in the Grade 3 Transylvania at Keeneland and bounded to an open-lengths allowance score last out at Churchill.

“Coming off the Keeneland race, I just wanted to give him some confidence,” trainer Ian Wilkes said. “I’m going to see how he handles the longer distance here.”

He might not handle it well. Sonic Boom has yet to go beyond 1 1/16 miles, his best races have been at six furlongs and a mile, and both his dam and second dam were pure sprinters.

Gorgeous Kitten will appreciate going from the 1 1/16-mile Arlington Classic, in which he was a respectable second over a very wet course, out another furlong Saturday. But he is a grinding type with a limited ceiling, and perhaps Hembree can get the jump on him.