Northern Invader would benefit from an early speed jam

Post time for race 4 on Friday at Churchill Downs is set for 2:27 p.m. Eastern. A frontal boundary bringing a meaningful amount of rain is forecast to reach Louisville at about 4, so the Friday feature at Churchill ought to remain on grass.

It’s quite a feature, too, a mini-version of Saturday’s River City Stakes that drew six stakes-class turf milers and a horse named Kupuna. Flying P Stables and trainer Norm Casse claimed Kupuna for a whopping $100,000 on Sept. 28 and Casse said Kupuna, who performed adequately in his lone grass start, will run if the race stays on turf. If it doesn’t, he’ll wind up the favorite.

Two of the others, Epic Ride and Quatrocento, both of whom last raced in the Grade 1 Coolmore Turf Mile at Keeneland, were cross-entered in the River City. Fausto Gutierrez, who trains Quatrocento, at press time hadn’t answered a voicemail or replied to a text message, but John Ennis, who trains Epic Ride, said connections lean toward the Friday race for two reasons.

First, it’s contested over one mile, a better distance for Epic Ride than the River City’s 1 1/8 miles, and second, Ennis wants to avoid a sodden grass course with a horse who’d prefer staying on top of the ground.

Ennis and owner Welch Racing had designs on the Breeders’ Cup Mile after Epic Ride, making just his second turf start around two turns, blitzed a dozen Kentucky Downs rivals in the $2.5 million Mint Millions on Sept. 6. In that start, Epic Ride shot to the lead, set a strong pace, and never truly faced a challenge, but returning a month later in the Turf Mile at Keeneland, the horse chased the pace while stuck inside and came up empty, finishing eighth.

:: Access morning workout reports straight from the tracks and get an edge with DRF Clocker Reports

“It was just one of those things where he was stuck down on the inside and never got to run, never reached top gear. It was frustrating for me to watch,” Ennis said. “I’d rather see him go 44 and change. He’s a horse that needs to be able to stretch out.”

Epic Ride has a new jockey, Tyler Gaffalione, and from the sound of things the plan will be to try and lead. That would put Epic Ride on a collision course with Quatrocento, who, while Epic Ride was capturing the Mint Millions, managed to squeeze in two allowance victories during the brief Kentucky Downs meeting.

At Keeneland in the Turf Mile, Quatrocento’s the one who made the lead, setting a strong pace and holding admirably to the furlong pole before tiring to a solid enough sixth. The front-running tactics are something relatively new for Quatrocento, who seemed comfortable as a pressing/stalking type as recently as August.

Rail-drawn Strong Quality also prefers going about his business on the engine but lacks the raw speed of Quatrocento and Epic Ride. Bottom line, though, is if all three show up, Friday’s race shape should favor someone coming from behind.

Trainer Mike Maker runs two, Emmanuel and Paros, the one-two finishers last out in the Carey Memorial at Hawthorne, where Paros turned in the stronger performance despite losing. Neither looks as likely Friday as Northern Invader, listed on the morning line at a relatively generous 7-2.

In his last seven starts, Northern Invader has contested and raced competitively in five graded stakes and one listed stakes; the other race in the sequence was a third-level allowance carded for one mile on Churchill turf, and Northern Invader won it. He handles an autumn course with some give and should get a grand stalking trip under Jose Ortiz.

:: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.