When you think of Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey, you first think of New York racing. McGaughey also winters in Florida, but one mainly associates his name with Gulfstream Park. Quietly, however, McGaughey has made hay at Tampa Bay. Over the last three years, McGaughey-trained turf horses at Tampa Bay have gone 36-13-2-10, a robust 36 percent strike rate that has produced a $2.60 return on investment. Saturday, he has the probable favorite, Never Explain, for the Grade 3, $175,000 Tampa Bay Stakes, a 1 1/16-mile grass race McGaughey has won three times since 2016. Never Explain is one of 10 entrants and drew post 1 with Vincent Cheminaud named to ride. Never Explain fits the spot, but he is only one of several plausible winners. The race includes several pace factors, which would benefit late-running Never Explain. Churchtown, drawn in post 2, is a consistent front-running presence, but is no faster to the front than Winfromwithin and Candidate. Running Bee drew post 10 and also figures to play a part in the pace, though he exits a dull eighth in the Fort Lauderdale on Dec. 30 at Gulfstream. Among those seeking forward placements, Churchtown holds the most appeal, and the 5-year-old Roger Attfield-trained gelding can rate a touch in a pinch. His close second behind Grade 1 winner Annapolis last May points him out as a win candidate, and after a bad trip at Woodbine in the Connaught Cup, Churchtown didn’t run a step over the quirky Kentucky Downs course, which he clearly loathed. :: Bet the races with a $200 First Deposit Match + FREE All Access PPs! Join DRF Bets. Never Explain also ran below form at Kentucky Downs, where he was a well-beaten ninth in the rich Turf Cup on Sept. 9, his most recent start. Never Explain went 2 for 2 beating lesser allowance rivals last winter at Tampa Bay, but the long layoff is of some concern, as is the Tampa Bay’s 1 1/16-mile distance, since Never Explain’s top performances last year came between 1 1/8 and 1 3/8 miles. Never Explain, a 6-year-old who only truly came to hand in 2023, has more of a steady, grinding move than a quick turn of foot. While he has raced effectively at a mile and 1 1/16 miles, Siege of Boston, who is fast enough to win, shares some of the same characteristics with Never Explain. With a last start on Nov. 11, his layoff is shorter than Never Explain’s, but Siege of Boston similarly needs the right circumstances to make a sustained run from mid-pack or farther back. Four-year-old Irish Aces is the Tampa Bay entrant with all the upside. He ran a winning race finishing second by a neck in the Tropical Park Derby on Dec. 23, closing from 10th in upper stretch with a furious nine-wide rally. Irish Aces’s early position that day was compromised by a wide draw and a stumbling start, and his breeze with two Brendan Walsh-trained stablemates on Jan. 19 at Palm Meadows looked exceptional. “This is a big step up for him, but he’s been training very forward, and if he’s going to be the horse we think he is, he’s going to have to take on horses like this,” Walsh said. Endeavour Stakes The trainer Brittany Russell has run only one horse at Tampa Bay Downs but appears to have the right horse for the Grade 3, $175,000 Endeavour Stakes. Full Count Felicia was scratched last weekend from the Pegasus World Cup Filly and Mare Turf in favor of this softer spot, and if she holds her form, she’ll probably win the Endeavour, a 1 1/16-mile grass race for older fillies and mares that drew only seven entrants. The short field is devoid of serious pace players, and Full Count Felicia, breaking from post 7 under jockey Emisael Jaramillo, could wind up the controlling speed. Full Count Felicia comes off a good win Dec. 30 at Gulfstream in the Suwannee River Stakes, her fifth victory from seven starts for Russell. The mare raced too keenly finishing fourth Nov. 5 in the Grade 2 Goldikova at Santa Anita, but in her previous outing scored a front-running 8 1/2-length win in the All Along at Laurel Park. The All Along demonstrated that Full Count Felicia goes comfortably on the lead, which might not be the case with Be My Sunshine, who drew the rail and has a touch of early speed. “She can sit forward, but I think she likes to follow a horse,” said trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. :: Get Daily Racing Form Past Performances – the exclusive home of Beyer Speed Figures Four-year-old Be My Sunshine has improved considerably in her last two starts, beating 3-year-olds Dec. 23 in the Tropical Park Oaks, albeit with a perfect trip. “She seems to be going forward a bit, and we think there’s more to come,” Joseph said. Trainer Chad Brown has won the Endeavour twice in the last three years and entered two horses, Consumer Spending and Implicated. Implicated was sixth in the Tropical Park Oaks with no apparent excuse, but Consumer Spending will contend if she can overcome a challenging race flow. Best as a one-run closer, 6-year-old Consumer Spending got hot last summer, winning a pair of Grade 3s at Monmouth Park. She was sixth in the Grade 2 Ballston Spa at Saratoga, a race she might well have won with a clean run through the final furlong. Graham Motion also has two entrants, but neither Sparkle Blue nor Willakia has a clear path to victory. :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.