2010 DMR trainersTop 25 capsules(4,500 words) By Brad Free DEL MAR, Calif. – The racehorse population has contracted, but most top trainers in California will be action this summer at Del Mar. And while the seven-week meet has been described by some horsemen as a working vacation, don’t be fooled. Del Mar is big business, with high purses and accompanying social benefits. Everyone wants to win at Del Mar. In season after summer season, the same names keep popping up. Mike Mitchell is nearing the top of the all-time Del Mar trainer list, while Bob Baffert is pulling away as all-time Del Mar stakes winner. Yet beyond the leader-board spotlight, summer horseplayers also are concerned with finding good horses at the right prices. Hopefully, these trainer capsules can provide clues. Handicappers that pay attention to the peculiarities of horsemen don’t need reminding that Mitchell is super first-off-the-claim, or that Baffert is always strong with 2-year-olds. But how many are aware that aside from a high rate with post-time favorites, Ron Ellis often cools off at Del Mar? Or that Kentucky-based John Glenney specializes with longshot special-weight maidens? Walther Solis had a big spring-summer meet at Hollywood; will he tail off again at Del Mar? Will Old English Rancho private trainer Don Warren have another banner summer? Will the longshot tendencies of Barry Abrams continue for another season? Three years of Polytrack at Del Mar are in the history books, and trainer habits are as important now as ever. The summaries below are based primarily on the past three seasons at Del Mar. So what are you waiting for? Summer is here. Time to jump in, TRAINER CAPSULES Barry AbramsEven before artificial surfaces, Abrams was among the top longshot trainers at Del Mar. Polytrack only solidified his reputation, thanks to the durability and high-odds inclination of horses sired by Unusual Heat. Abrams is closely linked to the 20-year-old California stallion, whose first crop began racing at Del Mar in 2001. Abrams starters are mostly home-breds; the parade of longshot winners by Unusual Heat continued last summer when Abrams connected with Bling Star Dreams ($40.40) in a maiden-25, Unusual Suspect ($51) in a marathon stake, Ballistic Heat ($20.80) in a low-level sprint claimer and Powerofvoodoo ($46.80) in a turf allowance. It requires nothing more than a leap of faith to make money on Abrams at Del Mar – simply back every main-track longshot he starts. He produced a flat profit all three years on Polytrack; the combined total during that period was 13-for-101 with a $2.66 ROI (return on investment per $2 win bet). Occasional upsets notwithstanding, Abrams runners on turf are generally over-bet. The past three years, they won at an 8-percent clip (7-for-84) for a $1.39 ROI. A.C. AvilaStreaky tendencies and fuzzy characteristics of high-odds winners make Avila a puzzle. Or does it? The truth is that Avila’s longshot reputation is partly myth. While Avila posts occasional surprises, they are infrequent. The past three Del Mar summers at 10-1 or higher, Avila won just three races from 45 starters. Nevertheless, his Del Mar runners produced a profit in 2009 when he was 5-for-30 with a $3.82 ROI, and 2007 when he was 4-for-26 with a $3.17 ROI. Those years sandwiched a forgettable 2008 summer in which he went 0-for-21. Avila is always dangerous off the claim; the past three years on all circuits, he is 8-for-42 first off the claim, with a $4.71 ROI. Two upset wins last summer at Del Mar were first off the claim – Made for Magic ($43.40) and Coatcheck Girl ($10.40). Horses that raced in the last 30 days are most effective – 16 percent winners and a $2.45 ROI, compared to 7 percent and $0.86 ROI with horses off 31 days or more. Bob BaffertThe key component for Baffert is the 2-year-old division – 17 of his 35 Del Mar winners the past three summers were juveniles. That includes 2009 star Lookin at Lucky, who gave Baffert his 10th victory in the Del Mar Futurity. Baffert 2-year-olds are the cream of the crop, and always well meant. The past three summers, the best wagering value was first-time starters – 6-for-32 for a flat-bet profit ($2.32 ROI). Baffert won two races last summer with first-time starters – Always a Princess ($15.80) and Tiny Woods ($5.20). Second-start juvenile maidens were a respectable 5-for-20 over three summers, but undervalued ($1.05 ROI). While the focus is youth, Baffert is effective with older. Richard’s Kid ($50.80) won the 2009 Pacific Classic and is back in the Baffert stable; Internallyflawless ($15.80) upset the Del Mar Oaks; Zensational won two Grade 1 sprints. Looking for a Baffert bet-against category? The past three summers on the Del Mar turf, Baffert is 4-for-33 and just 2-for-17 at odds of 5-1 or less. Nonetheless, Baffert enters summer loaded as usual and will be a force from start to finish. Baffert said he is particularly deep this season with 2-year-old fillies. Simon CallaghanCallaghan, 26, relocated from England to California in winter, and will race at Del Mar for the first time in 2010. The son of former English trainer Neville Callaghan, Simon Callaghan also worked for Richard Hannon in England and Todd Pletcher in the U.S. Callaghan started slowly in the U.S. His initial starter was Jan. 9 at Santa Anita; only one of his first 12 runners hit the board. But from the middle of February to the end of June, Callaghan forced handicappers to take notice with an 8-for-29 streak led by the filly Turning Top. She won two allowances, a minor stake, and a Grade 3 in late June. Callaghan entered summer with a small stable of eight European imports. Aside from Turning Top, Callaghan’s wins were maiden races and first-level allowances. Julio CananiWhen it comes to training grass horses at Del Mar, few are as effective as Canani, whose 5-for-17 record in 2009 tied for the season lead. Four of the past six summers, Canani has ranked among the top three in Del Mar turf wins. He always enters the meet with fresh stock, and rarely wastes a start. While comebackers can be ready, Canani is more effective second following a layoff. All five turf winners last summer were making their second start following a layoff. Beyond a conspicuous turf record, Canani is effective on the main track at all class levels. Following a huge winter at Santa Anita in which he won at a 30-percent clip (22-for-73), Canani cooled off at Hollywood. Perhaps he is gearing up for another assault on Del Mar, where horse-for-turf-course Blue Chagall can drop in company. Graded stakes winner Loup Breton would be qualified in just about any spot. Jack CaravaThe 2009 meet was not good for La Canada Stables private trainer Carava. The outfit’s first winner (Self Insured, July 31) was disqualified at 15-1, the stable was hit by a rash of injuries on the Del Mar main track, and by the end of summer it had won just five races from 48 starters. The downtrend was opposite the first two summers on Del Mar synthetic, when the stable won at a 17-percent clip on Polytrack and produced a flat-bet profit both seasons. La Canada operates primarily a claiming-caliber stable, and after slowing its rate of acquisitions in winter, claiming activity recently picked up. Carava generally wins about 17 percent first off the claim, and almost always runs them where they belong. The stable’s first-call rider was Martin Pedroza, but Carava is spreading it around and using Rafael Bejarano and Joel Rosario with increasing regularity. Vladimir CerinThree straight Del Mar summers of a flat-bet profit suggests Cerin is due for a down season. Or is he? Cerin powered through the first six months of 2010 at a 25-percent win rate, and he is always a force on the main track at Del Mar. The past three summers on Polytrack, Cerin won 17 races from 88 starters, and produced a wild $3.14 ROI. Del Mar layoff horses usually are ready to fire; last summer Cerin won a division of the Oceanside with a comebacker, and a maiden-25 with a comebacker off more than a year. Cerin can frustrate handicappers with “streaky” tendencies. Last summer he won just two races from his first 20 starters, then finished the meet strong with a 4-for-7 streak. Recent acquisitions will be well meant, horses changing distance and surface must be given a second look if the price is right. Usually, it is. Ron EllisRecent summers have been frustrating for Ellis, whose high win rate at Los Angeles-area tracks was sliced in half the past three meets at Del Mar. Ellis wins with 20 percent of his starters at Santa Anita and Hollywood, but on Del Mar Polytrack, he has won just seven of 63 (11 percent). Blame the surface? Not that simple. Hollywood-based Ellis focuses on that track’s spring-summer meet. By the time Del Mar arrives, his stock often needs freshening. For 2010, Ellis will remain at Hollywood, train horses at that track, and ship to Del Mar only to race. That includes Rail Trip, who entered July as the top older male in California. Ellis was hot the first six months of 2010, winning at a 26 percent clip and producing a flat-bet profit. While his streak might continue, contrarians will anticipate a summer lull. However, bet against Ellis-trained favorites at your own risk. He has won with 10 of his last 23 Del Mar favorites (both surfaces), at a $2.33 ROI. Carla GainesAlthough horseplayers consider her one of the most productive Del Mar trainers, Gaines enters summer 2010 with declining wager value. Her win percentage this year holds at 14 percent, but through June, Gaines runners produced a meager ROI of $0.81. The low return will not be blamed on underachieving favorites. The first half of 2010, Gaines won with 41 percent of her favorites. However, she rarely springs upsets. At 5-1 or higher, Gaines was 0-for-43 through June. Of course, that means she was 13-for-44 (29 percent) at less than 5-1. What you see is what you get. Maiden races, once her strong suit, have slipped. Gaines is 5-for-41 in Del Mar maiden races the past three years ($1.37 ROI). Non-maidens trained by Gaines offer appeal, and the past three summers she is 16-for-53 in Del Mar races for winners. Gaines horses generally hold form going up the ladder; five of seven wins last summer were sharp horses moving up in class. The past three summers, turf chalk is almost automatic, winning six of eight. John GlenneyDel Mar bettors have cashed only a handful of tickets on Kentucky-based Glenney, whose annual trek to California produced just 13 winners from 135 Del Mar starters the past 10 years. So why bother? It is because Glenney maidens are a virtual gold mine. The past five years in special-weight maiden races at Del Mar, Glenney is 5-for-36 and produced a generous $4.60 ROI. Although Glenney went 0-for-15 at Del Mar in 2009, his outsider Cedros proved Glenney outsiders still pack punch. Cedros missed by a head at 25-1 in a special-weight turf race Aug. 9. Glenney will operate under the radar again this summer, and recently averages only one winner per Del Mar season. But with upsets such as Gloria Goodbody ($34.80 in 2008), Secret Stranger ($19.80 in 2007) and Transduction Gold ($70.80) in 2006, it only takes one home run to make up for a lot of strikeouts. Bruce HeadleyHeadley is one of a dwindling number of hands-on horsemen; recent stakes winners Kona Gold, Got Koko and Street Boss received early training at Headley’s ranch in Arcadia. Unfortunately for Del Mar bettors, wagering value is nonexistent. In three summers on Polytrack, Headley has won at 13 percent, but his 12-for-88 record generated a $1.13 ROI. Upsets never occur. At 10-1 or higher, Headley is 0-for-25 the past three years at Del Mar; his five-year overall turf record is 3-for-73. Yet while value is hard to find, Headley commands respect in the right places. Polytrack favorites are a consistent 8-for-25, and include a 6-for-14 record with colts and geldings that are favored. Headley is 4-for-8 with horses coming off a win; sharp horses moving up in class hold form. First-time starters generally need a race, while stakes winners Free Flying Soul and M One Rifle are the current Headley stars. Bob Hess, Jr.His stable has downsized since the early 1990s when he led the Del Mar standings two consecutive seasons (1991-92), but Hess remains a summer factor. He is one of a handful of trainers whose Del Mar runners produced a flat-bet profit all three years on Polytrack (20-for-129 overall; $2.25 ROI). Most Del Mar winners are claimers; productivity is highest around two turns. The past three years in main-track routes, Hess is 8-for-28 (29 percent, huge flat-bet profit). But in main-track sprints, he is only 12-for-101 (12 percent, $1.12 ROI). Halfway through 2010, Hess was struggling in an uncharacteristic funk (8 percent winners through late June, which is half his overall career rate of 15 percent). At Del Mar, Hess is a bet-against with first-time starters (1-for-17 past three years) and turf runners. He has not won a grass race at Del Mar since Aug. 28, 2005, a 34-race streak. Looking to cash a bet on a Hess runner? Find a two-turn race on Polytrack. Jerry HollendorferIf anyone needed confirmation about Hollendorfer at Del Mar, 2009 was proof. He won opening day with his first starter, closing day with his last starter, and finished fifth in the standings (13-for-63) while producing a $2.33 ROI thanks to a 22-1 upset by Del Mar Derby winner Rendezvous. Hollendorfer expanded his West Coast operation four years ago to include Southern California, and has built one of the circuit’s strongest stables. While Hollendorfer trainees are undervalued at many tracks, that has not been the case at Del Mar. Polytrack favorites have won 12 of 25 (48 percent) and produced a flat-bet profit, recent acquisitions such as 2009 Debutante winner Blind Luck typically improve. Hollendorfer runs at all class levels and all distances; he enters summer 2010 with a strong 2-year-old group. Through June, Hollendorfer already had won five races for juveniles. Hollendorfer rarely “gives” horses races; it is almost always a “go.” Expectations are Hollendorfer will be among the handful of trainers to win at least 10 races this summer at Del Mar. Marty JonesDel Mar is always a bump in the road for Jones, who is on pace for a career-best year based on win percent and purse earnings. Through June, Jones had won with 21 percent of his starters. Earnings were nearly $1 million, within range of his career-high 2005 total that topped $1.6 million. But make no mistake – summer is tough. The past three years at Del Mar, Jones is 9-for-101 overall ($1.19 ROI) and just 1-for-11 with favorites. But the current Jones roster is strong, and despite below-par recent summers, expectations are he will surpass previous Del Mar meets. Jones’s top female turf sprinter Unzip Me can drop in class to face her own gender; front-running Compari is a threat any surface. Jones rarely wins first out, but is deadly with second-start maidens. The past three years on all tracks, Jones is 9-for-49 with second-start maidens ($2.51 ROI); none of the winners were favored. Eric KruljacFormer Arizona-based Kruljac now trains year-round in Southern California, where his consistent 20 percent win rate is combined with appealing prices. The first six months of 2010, Kruljac trainees were 10-for-47 in Southern California and produced a break-even $2 ROI. Kruljac should have another good summer. After winning just one Del Mar race per year in 2005, 2006 and 2007, Kruljac upgraded the quality of his stable with positive results. The past two summers, he won 10 races from 48 Del Mar starters, and produced a flat-bet profit. Kruljac rarely wins first out (0-for-19 at Del Mar since 2005), but second-time starters are deadly. In three summers on Polytrack, Kruljac is 5-for-14 with second-start maidens including Justincredible ($27.40) last summer, and 2008 second-start winners Sagebrush Angel ($24), The Bat Signal ($6.60) and Miguel’s Mascot ($8.40). Kruljac-trained claimers usually hold form – 28 percent winners with claimers that won their last start. What to look for? Look for second-start maidens and in-form claimers. Richard MandellaWith 251 career victories at Del Mar (12th all time) including 47 stakes (sixth all time), Mandella ranks among the top trainers of summer. Mandella returned to form in 2009 with a 9-for-41 overall record and a 4-for-20 on synthetic. By comparison, his combined 2007-08 win totals at Del Mar were a disappointing 8-for-68 overall and 4-for-39 on the main. Mandella operates a stable comprised mainly of expensive, well-bred prospects. It an enviable position, but handicappers recognize its limits. Due to high-ticket purchase price and outstanding pedigrees, Mandella cannot drop into claiming races merely for a confidence-building win. When a Mandella runner drops, it is due to limited ability. Occasional wins by special-weight-to-maiden-claiming droppers (4-for-9 the past year) usually are at low odds. Mandella has produced high marks the past three years at Del Mar in turf routes (9-for-45) and maidens (9-for-50). Surprisingly, none of his five turf winners last summer was favored. Peter MillerIt used to be easy money at Del Mar – wager on Miller’s first 10 starters of the meet, then bet against everything afterward. Based nearby at San Luis Rey Downs, Miller is “home” at Del Mar, and often fires early. He started the 2007 meet going 5-for-10; in 2008 he was nearly as hot, starting 4-for-10. But in 2009, Miller won only one race from his first 13 starters before the stable turned around. By the end of summer, Miller was 10-for-58 with a flat-bet profit for the second time in three years on Polytrack. Miller’s program is reliant on 2-year-olds, a category in which he is 13-for-51 (nine maidens, four winners) the past three summers. One-third of his Del Mar starters were 2-year-olds, they accounted for nearly half his Del Mar wins the past three years. Miller rarely wins first out (1-for-19), but is 5-for-17 with second-start maidens. The spring-summer meet at Hollywood was slow for Miller, but he recently beefed up his stable via the claim box, and if recent trends hold, Miller will be a Del Mar force to reckon with. Mike MitchellFew trainers move horses up as well as Mitchell, whose 413 Del Mar victories ranks second only to Ron McAnally (433). While the quality of Mitchell’s stable has upgraded, most starters are in for a tag. Mitchell is deadly first off the claim, 8-for-30 the past three summers at Del Mar ($2.51 ROI). His summer statistics match his overall five-year numbers – 29 percent winners (99-for-346) and a flat-bet profit first off the claim or transfer. Though he wins with droppers, from a value perspective Mitchell is best with improving horses moving up. Sharp runners tend to stay sharp. That fact produces a simple, profitable angle – any Mitchell starter at Del Mar that won last out. The past three years, Mitchell “won-last-out” starters are 12-for-45 (27 percent, flat-bet profit). Mitchell comebackers (45 days or more) are less reliable than recent runners – 13 percent comeback wins, compared to 23 percent. Mitchell was blazing in spring at Hollywood Park, going 13-for-22 during one stretch from mid-May to mid-June. The momentum is likely to carry to Del Mar, where Mitchell has a chance by the end of the meet to become the all-time leading trainer. Color him “live” from opening day to closing day. William E. MoreyCynical horseplayers rarely get burned betting against young Bill Morey at Del Mar. Among the leading trainers in Northern California, Morey has slipped at Del Mar, where he is 3-for-41 the past five years, mostly with low-odds shippers. The past two Del Mar summers, Morey lost 17 of 18 at odds of 4-1 or less. Call it a surprise if the trend reoccurs. Morey mastered low-level claiming races in Southern California this spring. He went 7-for-15 from April 1 to June 19 with multiple wins at Santa Anita and Hollywood Park in the $8k to $10k claiming level. Always among the top-five trainers in the North, his long-term win rate is 25 percent. Morey, 36, has been training 10 years, and learned from one of the best. His father is veteran trainer William J. Morey, Jr. Everything the younger Morey starts at Del Mar will be live, most will be claimers. If he is going to have a break-out summer, look for it to happen early in the meet. Jeff MullinsIn 10 years since relocating from Arizona to California, Mullins has been a lightning rod for controversy. He has been sanctioned and vilified for offenses that ranged from a high TCO2 level to security-barn violation. Through it all, Mullins and assistant Ral Ayers maintain a 20-percent-plus win rate everywhere they run. That includes Del Mar, where Mullins ranked among the top three for six consecutive summers through 2008. Last summer, Mullins ranked fifth with a 13-for-57 mark. Most Mullins trainees are claimers; he is deadly first off the claim – 30 percent long-term. Except for first-time starters (8 percent long term) Mullins runners are always well-meant, even at overlay prices. He posted one upset each of the last three Del Mar summers – comebacker Empressive Lady ($35) in 2009, first-off-the-claim Tanzanite ($55.80) in 2008, shipper Redhotandrolling ($32.80) in 2007. From a handicapping perspective, Mullins has few weak spots. His horses look good physically, and will be realistically placed all summer. How reliable is Mullins? Even while the win rate of Polytrack favorites continues to slide, Mullins main-track favorites the past three years at Del Mar have won at a 41-percent clip. Doug O’NeillHigh-volume O’Neill starts more horses at Del Mar than anyone. He averages more than three runners per day, led the standings in 2004, 2006 and 2007, and ranks near the top at all Southern California meets. This summer, O’Neill will be among the leaders in starts, wins and earnings. O’Neill runners are most reliable in main-track sprints. However, they generally offer minimal value in two-turn races, underperform on turf, and favorites are always vulnerable. Polytrack sprints are fine for O’Neill (14 percent winners); sprinters with 31 to 60 days between starts won at 21 percent and produced a $3.08 ROI. But in Polytrack routes, O’Neill won at only 12 percent with a ROI of $1.23. On grass, O’Neill is 7-for-71 over the past three years, and 5-for-58 around two turns. Turf outsiders rarely win. Since 2004, O’Neill is 0-for-43 on turf at 10-1 odds or higher. O’Neill’s three-year combined win rate for favorites is 29 percent, but produced a mere $1.38 ROI. O’Neill will start contenders on a daily basis again this summer, but unless it is a fresh sprinter on the main track, value will be tough to find. O’Neill recently started a 15-day suspension for a medication violation. If nothing else, it means his stable will be fresh for Del Mar. Leonard PowellWith a grand total of four career wins at Del Mar, three by the same horse (Headache), Powell remains somewhat anonymous. It probably will not stay that way. A 33-year-old from France with a background as an amateur jockey and racing journalist, Powell’s first starter was in 2003, but his stable did not begin to take hold until 2008. With less than 300 career starts and a 10 percent win rate, Powell’s tendencies are still developing. But this much is clear – long layoffs are no problem. Through June, Powell is 6-for-24 with layoffs of 180 days or more, generating a $5.97 ROI. Powell has worked for Richard Mandella, Neil Drysdale and John Shirreffs; his lower-class stable remains a work in progress. From a betting perspective, Powell flies under the radar. His custom of using low-profile jockeys means he enters summer as a potentially lucrative longshot trainer. John SadlerThe runaway leading trainer at Del Mar the past two summers, Sadler is halfway to the best season of his career. Through June, stable earnings were more than $4 million (his previous high was $7.3 million in 2008). The past two summers, Sadler has 62 wins from 247 Del Mar starters (25 percent); he led the standings 31-16 last summer and 31-19 in 2008. Sadler operates the deepest stable in California, and was leading trainer this winter at Santa Anita, last fall at Hollywood, and eight local meets overall. The downside is fewer runners slip through the wagering cracks. It is always a “go.” Debut winners are a staple; Sadler is 13-for-48 with first-time starters of any age the past year, a trend that continues at Del Mar, where the past two summers he is 5-for-19 with 2-year-old first-timers, none were favored. Due to the cross-section of his stable, Sadler cannot be categorized. He starts maiden-claimers, Grade 1 winners and everything in between. Sadler is always effective changing surface or distance, his horses usually are in the right spots, and they deliver when expected. His win rate with Del Mar favorites the past three years is an outstanding 41 percent. From a pure handicapping perspective, Sadler is among the best in the game and a force all season long. Walther SolisStables that are hot in spring at Hollywood Park often cool down in summer at Del Mar. It is a familiar theme for Solis, who enters Del Mar following a career-best meet at Hollywood. Through the end of June, Solis ranked eighth in the Hollywood standings; his 9-for-47 mark is thanks to seven maiden wins by 2-year-olds. You would think Solis might stay hot. But he has been here before, with luckless results. One year ago, Solis was 9-for-51 in spring at Hollywood, and then stopped to a walk at Del Mar. After winning with his first Del Mar starter, Solis lost 26 straight and ended the meet 1-for-27. The Solis operation focuses on early-season juveniles. By the time Del Mar arrives, many are raced out, while those that do run at Del Mar are moving up in class. The past three summers at Del Mar, Solis 2-year-old winners are only 0-for-17, while his 2-year-old maidens are respectable 3-for-21. Don WarrenPrivate trainer for California breeding farm Old English Rancho, Warren’s on-track fortunes are linked to the quality of the horses he receives. The past year has been good for Warren, whose 7-for-24 record last summer at Del Mar generated a $5.57 ROI thanks to four winners that returned more than $20. The lowest payoff was $5 by allowance winner Acclamation, who Warren developed into one of the top turf horses in California. Warren consistently wins at a 12 percent clip, his stock races into shape and maintains form, and he does best with sharp horses moving up. Every horse that Old English Rancho breeds is considered for sale; the stable does best when it runs rather than sells. With declining demand this year, Old English runners will earn their keep in competition. First-time starters rarely win, but improving horses at all class levels will be dangerous. --30—