The sun shone bright on Mi Bago all winter in Florida. A stakes winner sprinting on the Woodbine turf as a juvenile, he took three straight stakes in his campaign at Gulfstream Park ranging from 7 1/2 furlongs to a mile and 70 yards. But then, the rains came. Campaigning in Kentucky, New York, and Pennsylvania this spring and summer, Mi Bago continually kept catching wet courses – and continually, the front-runner was unable to sustain his drive through the stretch. His highest placing in his five most recent starts came when he was second in the off-the-turf Pennine Ridge at Saratoga. Most recently, he was fifth in the Grade 2 National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame going a mile on a Saratoga turf course officially rated firm, but which had some cut in it after earlier rain. So, trainer Mark Casse is going back to the playbook he has used successfully in the past with runners like Grade 1-winning turf mare Got Stormy, reasoning that a horse may be able to handle softer going, but that it limits how far they can run. And if that move works once again, Mi Bago looms as a potential overlay in Saturday’s Grade 1, $2 million Franklin-Simpson Stakes for 3-year-olds sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs on the esoteric Kentucky Downs course. :: Kentucky Downs Package Available Now - Get All Access PPs and more for just $20! This is the second Grade 1 in the history of Kentucky Downs, as this race was upgraded last year. A full field of 12, plus four also-eligibles on the program, includes three graded stakes winners in the main body of the field – Dream On, also trained by Casse, Governor Sam, and Spiced Up. The cutback for Mi Bago could prove prescient with the potential conditions. After one of the driest Augusts on record in Kentucky, rain returned this week. The early forecast for Franklin calls for evening thunderstorms Friday and showers Saturday morning. “He needs it rock-hard to go a mile or mile and a sixteenth,” Casse said of Mi Bago, who is owned by Gary Barber. “He gets over soft turf just fine – he just can’t run as far.” Conversely, Dream On, owned by D. J. Stable, won’t mind some give in the ground at all. This year, he won the Woodhaven at a mile on turf rated good and then the Grade 3 Penn Mile on yielding turf – a race in which Mi Bago led early before finishing fourth. Most recently, Dream On was fifth in the Grade 2 Secretariat going a mile on turf rated firm at Colonial Downs. After the race, regular rider Javier Castellano opined that the colt might not have handled very hard ground. “I kind of look forward to the cutback for him,” Casse said. “I think he’ll like it.” The 6 1/2 furlongs of the Franklin-Simpson typically plays more like seven furlongs, due to the undulations of the course, which has the field running on a gradual incline in the stretch. That pull to the wire can take the starch out of some late closers – but shouldn’t hamper the Casse pair, as Mi Bago will be after his usual position on the lead, and Dream On has employed stalking tactics in his better races this year. Moreover, Mi Bago should be rolling early as the field will break on a slight right angle before sweeping downhill into the left-handed turn. But ultimately, Casse said you “just don’t know” how a horse will handle the unique Kentucky Downs course until they tackle it. Governor Sam, a four-time stakes winner for George Weaver, is likely to be Mi Bago’s biggest pace competition. He is coming off a strong summer at Saratoga, in which he won the Grade 3 Quick Call and then led in the stretch before being run down by Spiced Up in the Grade 3 Mahony. The main field also includes stakes winners Bridle a Butterfly, Chasing Liberty, Out On Bail, Troubleshooting, and Warheart. Multiple stakes winner Kale’s Angel, the first also-eligible, would be another pace threat if he draws in. Gun Runner Stakes The sophomore set has another rich opportunity on this card in the $2 million Gun Runner Stakes going a mile. Giocoso is coming off a win in the aforementioned Secretariat at Colonial Downs, the big, good-looking colt finally scoring a breakthrough performance for trainer Keith Desormeaux. New Century finished ahead of Giocoso when rallying to third in the Grade 1 American Turf – a creditable effort, given that he had only been in the barn of Brendan Walsh for a few weeks. The colt was fifth in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby when asked to lay closer to the pace than normal early, a failed experiment Walsh drew a line through. However, he was then a puzzling sixth in the Grade 1 Saratoga Derby. A Grade 1 winner last year as a juvenile at Woodbine, he drops in class, in theory, here. Clever Again was roughed badly in the stretch of the Preakness, then faded to sixth after setting the pace in the Grade 3 Ohio Derby. Switched to turf, which seems to suit his breeding, he crossed the line an improved third – elevated to second on a disqualification – in the Hall of Fame. “It was a good race and we’re hoping he moves forward,” trainer Steve Asmussen said. “I like how he’s done since, and it appears that there is a little more there.” – additional reporting by Marcus Hersh :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.