Matt Bernier's 2019 Preakness analysis

Despite being stuck inside for a second consecutive leg of the Triple Crown, WAR OF WILL should be viewed as one of the major threats, if not the most likely winner, of this year’s Preakness Stakes. War of Will made his first start since a disastrous trip in the Louisiana Derby in the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago, breaking from the dreaded inside post. Once urged from the gate, he became difficult to rate, sitting the pocket trip before becoming involved in the Derby controversy, ultimately leading to a seventh-place finish via disqualification.

In my opinion, the Louisiana Derby should essentially be thrown out given the issue War of Will had during the running. I’m viewing the Preakness as War of Will’s second start since the Feb. 16 Risen Star at Fair Grounds, a race he won impressively. He may not have any real edge on paper entering the Preakness, but I’m expecting a career-best effort, regardless of the inside post position.

:: Preakness one-stop shop: Get PPs, picks, handicapping guides, and more

BOURBON WAR was compromised in the Florida Derby on March 30 by a slow pace and a main track at Gulfstream Park that was intensely speed friendly. A son of Tapit, this Mark Hennig trainee will sport blinkers for the first time Saturday, hopefully resulting in a more focused effort. On paper, the pace appears to be honest, and that should accentuate the strong finish Bourbon War possesses. He should be doing his best running down the lane.

IMPROBABLE hasn’t quite lived up to expectations in 2019, entering the Preakness winless in three starts this year. Trained by Bob Baffert, Improbable has been rated off the pace for most of his career. Depending on the pace situation Saturday, it wouldn’t be a shocker to see new rider Mike Smith position this son of City Zip closer to the front throughout. Improbable is a logical contender.

WIN WIN WIN was passively handled at the rear of the field in Louisville two weeks ago, waiting to commence his bid beginning at the quarter pole. One of the local hopes in this year’s Preakness, Win Win Win had the fifth-fastest final quarter-mile in the Kentucky Derby; a swift early pace would benefit this Michael Trombetta trainee. He still may be best going one turn, but he’s one to consider underneath at a big price.