Louisiana Stakes: The top two look vulnerable, but who can take advantage?

If everyone showed their best, the Louisiana Stakes would come down to Saudi Crown and Smile Happy. But races are not run in a vacuum, and there’s no reason to believe the two best horses will produce their best race Saturday at Fair Grounds.

Saudi Crown is prepping in this Grade 3 worth $175,000 for the $20 million Saudi Cup. There’s no chance trainer Brad Cox wants the 4-year-old, making his first start since a 10th-place finish Nov. 4 in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, to have an especially taxing experience. And Saudi Crown, a dedicated front-runner, is drawn inside another very fast route horse, Five Star General.

Smile Happy makes his first start since July 1, when the forces of chaos rattling around his brain overtook his senses. His trainer, Kenny McPeek, said early in 2023 that the horse on occasion simply refused to move forward during morning training. That happened before the Stephen Foster last July at Ellis Park, where Smile Happy had to be pushed backward at least an eighth of a mile to get him to the starting gate.

“He’s a tricky horse,” McPeek said earlier this week. “You cross your fingers.”

The question is whether anyone else in the 1 1/16-mile Louisiana can capitalize on favorable circumstances.

Kupun will be scratched, trainer Bret Calhoun said, taking out a pace player, which aids Five Star General, an 8-year-old in peak form exiting a fast-paced front-running win in the Dec. 23 Tenacious Stakes.

:: Bet the races with a $200 First Deposit Match + FREE All Access PPs! Join DRF Bets.

“Obviously the main thing was drawing outside Saudi Crown,” said trainer Grant Forster. “If this is just a prep and we can sit right off him, we might give him a run.”

If nothing else, Five Star General should make Saudi Crown work, which could set the table for a closer. Red Route One needs 1 1/8 miles for his best and did not progress significantly through his 3-year-old campaign while managing to earn nearly $1 million. Confidence Game never has run back to his sloppy-track win last winter in the Rebel Stakes.

That leaves Happy American, winner of the 2023 Louisiana. If Happy American gets back to that form and runs like he did finishing a closing third in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster, he’ll have a chance. He has not looked like the same horse in three races since, but trainer Neil Pessin believes otherwise.

In the Sept. 30 Lukas Classic, his first start since the Foster, Happy American fell impossibly far behind the leaders. He ran worse a month later in the Fayette at Keeneland, but there moved early and wide to the half-mile pole, and Happy American is strictly a one-run closer.

Pessin said Happy American twice got sick last fall, causing him to miss the Clark Stakes, and the gelding was back from a two-month layoff in the Tenacious with only two workouts. Happy American, last early, ran a half-mile from the three-quarters to the quarter pole in 46.56, easily the fastest in a race run over a potentially speed-biased strip. Looming at the three-sixteenths, he flattened late and was third.

“He’s 110 percent going into this,” Pessin said.

Saudi Crown is a miler at heart but has so much talent that he lost the 1 1/8-mile Jim Dandy by a nose to champion 2-year-old Forte, then won the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby over the same distance. He dueled on a wicked pace, stayed in contention for a mile, then ran out of gas in the Classic.

“He didn’t really want the mile and a quarter, and he never really had a break all year,” Cox said. “Physically, he looks great. I think he’s carrying more weight than into the Breeders’ Cup.”

:: Get Daily Racing Form Past Performances – the exclusive home of Beyer Speed Figures

Five-year-old Smile Happy’s 110 Beyer winning the Alysheba last May was the highest dirt-route figure of 2023, equaling White Abarrio’s number winning the Classic. His vast talent has been evident from the start, but since his 2-year-old campaign it has only truly shone in the Alysheba.

Following the Foster, McPeek sent Smile Happy to his Florida farm to exorcise demons and get the horse back on track.

“The last month or so, he’s really started training well,” McPeek said.

That does not mean Smile Happy is winning the Louisiana, a race ripe for an upset.

:: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.