NEW ORLEANS – Two come from California, three from Florida, but the horses front and center in the Louisiana Derby have been in New Orleans all winter. Chip Honcho won the Gun Runner in December, endured an impossible trip when fourth in the Lecomte in January, and was second in the Risen Star last month behind Paladin, one of the top contenders for the Kentucky Derby. Golden Tempo went last to first in a debut sprint score the same day as the Gun Runner, won the Lecomte in January and, racing against the grain of the track, and closed for third in the Risen Star. Those are the two favorites on the track’s morning line, Chip Honcho at 3-1 and Golden Tempo at 7-2 – even if that morning line looks more than a little out of line. Emerging Market is one of three horses pegged at 6-1 but could wind up challenging for favoritism. His connections, trainer Chad Brown and jockey Flavien Prat, draw betting action like a magnet, and Emerging Market in his lone start won a Tampa Bay Downs maiden route with the highest Beyer Speed Figure among Louisiana Derby entrants, a 97. :: DRF Road to the Derby Package Available Now! Save 37% on key handicapping essentials through Kentucky Derby day. The Grade 2, $1 million Louisiana Derby did not draw any horse currently among the very top tier of Kentucky Derby hopes, but of all the domestic Derby preps, this is the one that most closely simulates the big race itself. At 1 3/16 miles it’s the longest American race in Churchill Downs’s Road to the Kentucky Derby, the series of races that determines the horses who make the Derby field, and the Fair Grounds homestretch at 1,346 feet is longer even than the notoriously lengthy Churchill stretch. The race’s top two finishers will earn enough qualifying points, 100 and 50, to make the Kentucky Derby. Chip Honcho already has 39 points, Golden Tempo 35, and since the second- through fifth-place finishers Saturday secure 25, 15, and 10 points, a top-five finish from either colt should get them into the Derby. Starting in the Derby and contending in the Derby are vastly different things. And everyone in Saturday’s race, the 12th on a 14-race program with a noon Central first post, has something to prove. That’s the case to the greatest extent with Spirit of Royal, likely the longest shot in the race, and Autobahn, an improbably low 8-1 on the morning line. Trainer Brad Cox’s other entrant, Easterly, notched a second-out Gulfstream Park maiden win over 1 1/16 miles and seems much more competitive than Autobahn. Easterly’s debut second in a one-turn mile came behind Class President, who won the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, and he looked athletic and handy in his Feb. 7 victory. Edgard Zayas, aboard for both starts, comes in to ride. Trainer Bob Baffert hasn’t started a horse at Fair Grounds since 2014 but ships Blacksmith from California. Blacksmith’s case rests mainly upon his second-place finish while still a maiden behind stablemate Litmus Test in the Los Alamitos Futurity on Dec. 16. The 92 Beyer he earned is an outlier among his five starts, and Litmus Test hardly flattered the Los Al form when beaten more than five lengths as the favorite in the March 1 Rebel. Blacksmith finally cleared the maiden ranks in his fifth start Feb. 20 under Florent Geroux, who has the mount Saturday, but appeared to be seriously outworked by 3-year-old Desert Gate in his final Louisiana Derby drill on March 14. Speaking of outlier Beyers, Pavlovian’s 87 from his nose win last month in the $500,000 Sunland Derby was 16 points higher than his previous top. Trained in California by Doug O’Neill, Pavlovian drew the rail for the 10th start of a busy career. :: KENTUCKY DERBY 2026: Top contenders, point standings, prep schedule, news, and more Universe has lost five in a row since a debut win at Saratoga last summer, and in two starts this year has failed to move forward from his second behind Incredibolt in the Street Sense and second behind Further Ado in the Kentucky Jockey Club last fall at Churchill. Universe finished 1 3/4 lengths behind third-place Golden Tempo in the Risen Star, and that gap figures to widen Saturday – especially if the addition of blinkers helps Golden Tempo in the way that trainer Cherie DeVaux hopes. DeVaux considered putting blinkers on Golden Tempo even before the Risen Star, where he fell far behind the leaders in the first quarter-mile, where even a solid, sustained closing kick left him six lengths behind the winner. DeVaux had jockey Jose Ortiz breeze Golden Tempo when she first worked him in blinkers Jan. 30, and Ortiz reported a clear and immediate change in Golden Tempo’s focus, DeVaux said. “He got into his work much more quickly,” DeVaux said. “I don’t want to change his style, I just don’t want him to lose touch with them again.” The Candy Ride colt Emerging Market logged his first official workout way back in May but didn’t debut until Feb. 7, when Brown sent him to Tampa Bay Downs for a two-turn maiden race. “He always trained good, didn’t show a lot of speed, and I didn’t want to sprint him at Gulfstream – that wasn’t going to work out well,” Brown said. In his debut, Emerging Market followed favored Powershift for much of his trip before pouncing on him with a quick move at the three-sixteenths pole. He ran well enough and ran fast enough to earn a chance at a Derby prep, and with Paladin heading to the Blue Grass, Brown chose Fair Grounds. “It’s a big ask, but he’s so talented, he might be able to do it,” said Brown, who doesn’t like Emerging Market’s draw on the far outside in post 9. “Hopefully he can work out some sort of stalking trip where he can drop in and not lose too much ground.” :: Big Action in the Big Easy at Fair Grounds! DRF Past Performances and Picks are available now. They all figure to be chasing Chip Honcho, who made Paladin work in the Risen Star, leading past the furlong grounds. Trainer Steve Asmussen has won the Louisiana Derby five times, and the confidence he had in Chip Honcho going into the Risen Star has only grown. A robust colt, Chip Honcho worked just nine days after the Risen Star and had two serious five-furlong drills here in March before finishing off his preparation with a more modest Monday breeze. “He worked well, just an easy half. He’s ready,” Asmussen said. Luis Saez, rarely seen on Asmussen-trained horses, picked up the Chip Honcho mount in the Risen Star and rode a perfect race. Asmussen named him on five horses Saturday in races before the Risen Star – he clearly wants Saez to be ready, too. Paladin, the undefeated early Derby favorite, ran down Chip Honcho last month. Maybe no one will catch him Saturday. :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.