Last-out winner Big Trouble could be a risky play in Menard Memorial

On Nov. 29 in the Pan Zareta Stakes, Big Trouble finally avoided trouble in a Fair Grounds turf sprint, and that spelled big trouble for the opposition. Trouble is, after winning by the better part of three lengths at odds of 4-1, Big Trouble goes to post a considerably shorter price Saturday in the $100,000 Nelson Menard Memorial.

Big Trouble drew the rail, one of nine fillies and mares entered in the Menard, carded for 5 1/2 furlongs on grass but uncertain to stay there given a wet late-week forecast. Big Trouble did return from a half-year break in September and easily won an allowance rained from turf onto dirt.

Even on turf, the 5-year-old mare could be viewed as a proposition too risky for the price. The Pan Zareta was her career-best race by a fairly wide margin, and rare is the older horse capable of putting together consecutive “best” races.

Moreover, Big Trouble lacks gate speed and positional pace, relying on a sustained rally to be effective. That cost her last February, when Big Trouble, trying to come through on the inside, had to wait too long for running room before finishing a fast-closing third in the Robert Kelly Memorial. Five weeks later, closing down the center of the course, Big Trouble twice got bumped and forced out, losing precious eighth-pole momentum in the second incident.

As Big Trouble cruised home six weeks ago, no straw in her Pan Zareta path, Serving Time found trouble, partly owing to circumstance, partly of her own doing. Attempting to split rivals past the three-sixteenths pole under Jareth Loveberry, she took a bump and had to be checked off heels to avoid a far more serious situation when the gap closed. By the time Serving Time got rolling again, eventually finishing third in her stakes debut, Big Trouble had dashed clear.

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“She’s not easy to ride, and Jareth didn’t know her,” trainer Cherie DeVaux said.

Serving Time cleared the maiden ranks and won a first-level allowance sprinting on turf last meet at Fair Grounds, but back in Kentucky for the spring, DeVaux couldn’t find a suitable spot for the filly. Eventually, she needed time off. The Pan Zareta marked her first race in 11 months. DeVaux foresees improvement.

“She can be tough to train, and I just wanted to get a race into her,” said DeVaux, who gives the mount back to Jose Ortiz, aboard for both the filly’s victories.

Gavea, who defeated Big Trouble last March in the Mardi Gras Stakes, finished fourth in the Pan Zareta, a race she, too, might have needed after a layoff. But it’s Lotsandlotsofcandy who presents the real unknown in the Menard.

A three-time winner from five starts, Lotsandlotsofcandy has evinced immense talent that layoffs have prevented from fully developing. Her trainer, Paul McGee, said Lotsandlotsofcandy came out of her dismal debut in April 2024 a very sick horse. She proceeded to win maiden and first-level allowance races by a combined 12 lengths, earning stakes-class Beyer Speed Figures of 90 and 94. But Lotsandlotsofcandy missed the next six months, and when she returned the following May she lugged out badly throughout a Churchill second-level allowance.

“She got out so bad she must have been 20 wide. I have no idea how she ran second,” McGee said. “She came out of that race with nothing glaring, but we gave her the requisite 90-day layoff.”

Lotsandlotsofcandy didn’t start again until November, when she cleared her second allowance condition at Churchill before coming to Fair Grounds, where she’s posted three workouts, the most recent a half-mile scorcher in 46 seconds.

“Any time I breeze her my instructions are, ‘go as slow as you can’. She’s just naturally fast,” McGee said.

By the ace grass-sprint sire Twirling Candy, Lotsandlotsofcandy will start Saturday be it grass or dirt, McGee said. She’s well drawn on the outside to use her speed – and that could spell trouble for the favorite.

Bob Wright Memorial

Secret Faith and Blue Fire on Saturday renew what so far this meet has proven a one-sided rivalry in the $100,000 Bob Wright Memorial.

Blue Fire managed to defeat Secret Faith by a head in the 2024 Louisiana Champions Day Lassie, but Secret Faith has captured their other three meetings. Returning from an extended absence, Blue Fire ran far below her form when beaten 18 lengths by Secret Faith in the Delmar Caldwell Memorial on Nov. 22. The gap narrowed to a half-length in the Champions Day Ladies Sprint, but only that tough loss to Blue Fire has kept Secret Faith from a 10-for-10 record in Louisiana-bred competition.

◗ In the $100,000 Gary Palmisano Sr. Memorial, Geaux Sugar starts as the favorite after winning the Champions Day Sprint. A year ago the same circumstances applied, Geaux Sugar regressed, and he lost the Palmisano as an odds-on favorite. Benoit, cutting back from route races, offers a plausible alternative.

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