King: Taking aim at Churchill's mandatory-payout Single 6

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Closing day of the spring meet at Churchill Downs is a time to look to the future, with 2-year-olds showcased in the Debutante and Bashford Manor, and an opportunity for horseplayers to earn summer spending money, with a mandatory payoff sweetening the Single 6 wager.

The Single 6 has the potential to offer a sizable carryover into Saturday provided there is not a sole winner Thursday and Friday, which would result in the winning gambler sweeping the pot. The carryover going into Thursday evening’s card was more than $294,000, suggesting that if unhit for a couple of days, it could swell to $325,000 or $350,000 or so by closing day.

With that backdrop, here is my analysis of the sequence, covering the final six races Saturday.

Race 7: Battle of Memphis (8), a last-out second against similar first-level allowance foes, is the most likely winner of this one-mile turf race, though his margin for error is small. So, I am inclined to spread a bit in this opening leg, using three other horses: St. Denman (2), Ry’s the Guy (4), and Salvator Mundi (10). Each brings a little something different into the race – St. Denham, established turf form; Ry’s the Guy, potential after blowing away maidens on dirt; and Salvator Mundi, 2-year-old class.

Race 8: Uncontested (1) and Warrior’s Club (8) drop from the Grade 1 Churchill Downs into the ungraded Kelly’s Landing, an overnight stakes race at seven furlongs, and that should result in improved finishes from the graded-winning duo. Uncontested, ninth in the Churchill Downs, could have a bit more upside. He makes his first start for trainer Tom Amoss, who has favorable statistics with such types. Warrior’s Club, meanwhile, who ran sixth in the Churchill Downs, offers appeal as the leading money earner with a bankroll of $796,504.

Race 9: This stakes-quality allowance at 5 1/2 furlongs on the grass may have some singling millionaire Om (12) after his third in the Grade 1 Jaipur at Belmont. I cannot do that, however. Though I view him as a contender and a must-use in the Single 6, I do not fully trust him, having seen inconsistent efforts from him over the past couple of years.

I am going five deep, hoping to catch a price. Others who warrant play include Angaston (1), Undrafted (2), Totally Boss (8), and Jazzy Times (10). At least a couple of these have the potential to be double-digit odds, including value-based top choice Angaston, a 12-1 shot on the morning line.

Race 10: Magic Dance (7) was one of the flashiest juvenile winners of the spring meet and rates as a single in the Debutante. Coming from just off the pace June 7, she rolled by 4 3/4 lengths and earned an 84 Beyer Speed Figure, a number more than 20 points higher than the career-best figures of her eight counterparts. Furthermore, she starts for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, who excels with stakes 2-year-olds at this time of year. He has won the Debutante four times, and the Bashford Manor on five occasions.

Race 11: The Bashford Manor calls for a two-deep Single 6 strategy, playing 5-1 shot Rookie Salsa (4), a battle-tested youngster who is already a stakes winner, having taken the Kentucky Juvenile during Derby week, and Rowdy Yates (10), a debut winner for Asmussen. Of this pair, Rookie Salsa is preferred, being proven from off the pace in a race that drew a number of horses who graduated from the maiden ranks on the lead.

Race 12: Last up are maidens going a mile on the grass, a race that seems among the trickiest of the Single 6 sequence, having drawn some first-timers and inexperienced turf competitors.

Zip Your Lip (4), Alfons Walde (5), and Fireball Jon (6) at least have shown promise on the grass. Zip Your Lip was second in his one attempt on turf, which came in a sprint. Alfons Walde, an import from Ireland, was second May 25 after running sixth in his first start in the U.S. And Fireball Jon has hit the board in two consecutive races, the first on grass at Fair Grounds before he finished second in an off-the-turf race in the slop at Churchill on May 3.

In addition to these three, I will try My America (2) and fast-working first-time starter Icon (9).

The ticket: A 20-cent Single 6 of 2, 4, 8, 10 with 1, 8 with 1, 2, 8, 10, 12 with 7 with 4, 10 with 2, 4, 5, 6, 9 costs $80.