King: Ransom the Moon can win Bing Crosby Stakes with patient ride

In a refreshing change from most dirt stakes in California, Saturday’s Grade 1 Bing Crosby drew a deep field, making it one of the most appealing wagering stakes of the weekend, particularly for those who view Drefong, the comebacking favorite, as potentially vulnerable, as I do.

Although he has trained swiftly leading up to his first race since winning the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Sprint for Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, I don’t want any part of betting long-layoff horses who are likely to go favored. There is too much risk of them needing a race for too small a mutuel.

My alternative play is Ransom the Moon, who figures to go off as the third favorite behind Drefong and the sharp Roy H. Ransom the Moon has turned in three stellar performances in dirt sprints since joining the barn of trainer Phil D’Amato and moving off synthetic tracks. Two of those races resulted in victories, including a Grade 2 score in the Kona Gold, and the other was a runner-up finish to the heavily favored Danzing Candy in the Grade 2 San Carlos on July 1.

The San Carlos was his best race, as he came within a neck of the talented winner after having to move a little earlier than usual. It also resulted in a career-best 107 Beyer Speed Figure, the second-highest mark in a sprint this year behind the 111 that Roy H posted in winning the Grade 2 True North at Belmont last out.

The Bing Crosby, having drawn more speed than the San Carlos, should provide jockey Flavien Prat with the opportunity to ride Ransom the Moon patiently, knowing that the quick speed horses St. Joe Bay and Roy H figure to keep the front-running Drefong honest.

St. Joe Bay should be running with Drefong early, and Roy H should be dialing up the pressure on the turn when he launches his move.

This could leave Ransom the Moon in a favorable stalking position, and having lost his last race, he seems likely to be a more attractive price than Drefong or Roy H. Barring notable scratches, he should stick to his 7-2 morning line.

Toga Challenger in Amsterdam

A similarly quick pace could unfold in the Grade 2 Amsterdam at Saratoga on Saturday, setting the stage for another off-the-pace type: Toga Challenger. A former claimer, he is still one of the fastest horses in the race on speed figures and could prove dangerous at his morning-line odds of 7-2.

Claimed out of a maiden $40,000 claimer that he won at first asking over the winter at Aqueduct, he has since recorded two seconds and two victories in four starts for trainer Rudy Rodriguez. And his latest, a first-level allowance win June 29 at Belmont, resulted in a 92 Beyer, a figure only exceeded by the 97 that likely favorite Coal Front posted in his latest win.

But there is a possibility that the inexperienced Coal Front could regress in the Amsterdam. After landing posts toward the outside in his two races, he is now in post 2 with speed to his inside and outside. And from this position, I would expect jockey John Velazquez to send him rather than just easing him into the race as he might have with an outside post.

With all the rival jockeys naturally viewing Coal Front as the one to beat, I envision a lively tempo, providing an opportunity for Toga Challenger, the only true closer in the field of five.

Sadler’s Joy in Bowling Green

A return to a three-turn race is the appeal of my third stakes play on Saturday – Sadler’s Joy in the Grade 2 Bowling Green over 1 3/8 miles. He has long relished these types of races, winning three-turn races at Saratoga, Aqueduct, and Gulfstream.

Racing in two-turn, Grade 1 races at massive Belmont in his last two races, he didn’t catch these conditions, though he still ran well, finishing third in the 1 1/2-mile Man o’ War over a boggy turf course May 13 and then a closer third in the Grade 1 Manhattan on June 10 when going 1 1/4 miles, a distance shorter than he prefers.

Though a slow work horse – typical of most Tom Albertrani-trained horses – he is proven fresh, having won the Grade 2 Pan American off more than a two-month layoff April 1.