King: Not ready to jump aboard El Areeb's bandwagon yet

El Areeb established himself as a Kentucky Derby prospect when he romped by 11 1/4 lengths in the Jerome Stakes last Monday at Aqueduct. Pressing the pace, he took the fight out of front-running favorite Takaful, pulled away on the turn to win with ease, and recorded a 91 Beyer Speed Figure, one of the better route dirt figures by a 2-year-old of 2016.

As much as I respect those achievements, I can’t vault him into the top five Derby prospects, as some other handicappers have done. The Jerome has been a hot potato for the New York Racing Association, getting moved from its traditional fall date to an April running at Aqueduct in 2011-12 and then getting moved up to January in 2013.

It’s no wonder that with all those changes and its placement in the middle of winter, the race was downgraded from a Grade 2 to a Grade 3 in 2015.

That is not to say that there haven’t been good horses in the Jerome. Vyjack, the 2013 winner, has become a millionaire, largely excelling as a turf miler in recent years, and El Kabeir, the 2015 winner, banked more than $912,000 – though I must admit that he was so unmemorable that I had to look up his lifetime past performances to recall how this was accomplished. He was at his best as a juvenile and early-season 3-year-old.

As for the other winners and minor-award finishers, it is largely fair to say that they had largely undistinguished careers for graded stakes horses.

I say this not to criticize Aqueduct, only to state the facts. It stands to reason that most of the better East Coast- or Kentucky-based Derby prospects go south for the winter instead of remaining in the cold.

Naturally, there are exceptions due to where trainers like to set up shop for the winter. A few, like Rudy Rodriguez, David Jacobson, and Linda Rice, prefer to run in New York year-round. And Cal Lynch, the trainer of El Areeb, races his stable mostly at his base at Laurel Park, with occasional nearby trips out of town.

Only time will determine if El Areeb is superior to the Jerome winners of recent years. And that time likely won’t come soon. He’ll likely run back in the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct on Feb. 4, when few snowbirds have returned from Florida.

So, unless El Areeb can win the Wood Memorial in April with authority, I still will be looking south and to the West in search of the Kentucky Derby winner.

Go with Gormley in Sham

Speaking of looking west, Saturday’s Grade 3 Sham at Santa Anita looms an interesting race that seems likely to produce some players on the Derby trail. Among its primary entrants are American Anthem, who won his debut over a talented maiden field for trainer Bob Baffert, and the stakes winners Term of Art, Colonel Samsen, and Grade 1 Frontrunner winner Gormley.

The race also has a more favorable history than the Jerome, having been won by the likes of Goldencents and Calculator, just to name a few, and some good horses have lost the race, too. The millionaires Secret Circle and Handsome Mike were second and fourth in the 2012 Sham.

My pick Saturday is Gormley due to the seasoning edge he possesses over American Anthem, having made three starts to American Anthem’s one.

Sonic Mule the pick in Mucho Macho Man

The ungraded Mucho Macho Man at Gulfstream on Saturday drew a deep field, though it seemingly does not represent the cream of the Florida 3-year-old crop. Most of the better 3-year-olds in Florida are awaiting the Holy Bull or Fountain of Youth, with their trainers preferring to kick off their horses’ 3-year-old campaigns going two turns rather than racing in early January going a one-turn mile in the Mucho Macho Man.

Regardless, it is a quality betting race with a competitive group, though they may not prove to be 1 1/4-mile Derby horses.

As in the Sham, I prefer to back a horse with experience – in this case, Sonic Mule. A three-time winner from six starts, he possesses tactical speed and seems capable of stretching out to a mile after winning two straight six-furlong races, one of which was a stakes.

His two losses in one-mile races came with excuses. Both were around two turns, and one came on grass.