King: Looking for live longshots in Breeders' Cup futures

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Fifteen years after the Breeders’ Cup last offered future-book parimutuel wagering, Breeders’ Cup futures are finally back, beginning Friday at noon Eastern and continuing through Sunday. On tap this week for futures are the Classic and the Distaff, with others to come in the weeks ahead.

With the last experience a distant memory, bettors cannot rely on recent history for clues in analyzing the wager. Instead, traditional handicapping and long-term forecasting seem to be the soundest strategies.

I’ll get to my thoughts on those strategies shortly. Before we dive into the handicapping, however, a heads up is required on when betting closes. The Classic closes first at 6 p.m. and the Distaff at 6:30.

Since this wager is parimutuel – not with fixed odds, as offered at a casino racebook – betting near the close of wagering is advised. Doing so provides bettors with the truest gauge of their odds and gives more time for updates on their horses.

A number of horses in the future pools are in action on Saturday, and their performances will go a long way toward illustrating whether they are Breeders’ Cup contenders. Of particular importance is the Travers, where Classic betting interests Bravazo, Catholic Boy, Good Magic, Gronkowski, Mendelssohn, Tenfold, and Vino Rosso are participating. There, two or three might run themselves into the Classic picture while just as many run themselves out of it.

Beyond watching the race itself, bettors are advised to wait for the next-day reports on the competitors, with DRF.com obviously being a valuable resource. The horses’ physical condition and plans announced by their connections can guide bettors as to which horses are worth a wager and which are worth avoiding. No one wants to be stuck holding a Breeders’ Cup Classic futures bet on a horse being pointed for the Dirt Mile.

Waiting to bet until the close of wagering also allows for the latest workout information. Top-class stakes horses such as those pointing for the Breeders’ Cup usually work on the weekends, sticking to a regular training schedule, provided they haven’t run within the past couple of weeks.

As we were reminded last week, when Unique Bella was injured following a workout at Del Mar and quickly retired, every time a horse steps onto the track, it is at some degree of risk.

So, with that noted, here are some thoughts on Classic and Distaff future pools, which just like the Derby Future Wager is set up with 23 individual betting interests and a field wager of all the other runners.

The Classic

Accelerate is a deserving favorite after trouncing the competition in the Pacific Classic last week. With that win so fresh in our minds, it is difficult to envision a scenario in which he sticks to his 4-1 morning line. Excellent horse, poor price – that is my expectation.

As for two other Classic favorites – Diversify and West Coast – they also have faults, though in differing areas. Diversify was fourth as the favorite over the Churchill Downs strip in the Clark Handicap last fall, making me wonder about his affinity for the track that is hosting the Breeders’ Cup this year, and West Coast is playing catchup to make the race, not having run since a second in the Dubai World Cup in late March.

The most interesting option to me, purely as a value play, is Pavel (#17, 30-1), who after a distant second in the Pacific Classic last week will probably be a bit chilly in the betting. I am not sure he is quite good enough to win the Classic, but he is already a Win and You’re In qualifier, having won the Stephen Foster Handicap at Churchill Downs in June. Landing in the gate is half the battle with future wagers.

I will also look at the all-others option (#24, 50-1) if an upset occurs in the Travers by a horse not among the individual betting interests.

The Distaff

The Distaff already has a scratch, with Unbridled Mo retired and taken out of the betting.

The field (#24, 50-1) again holds interest to me in the Distaff, due largely to the oversight of Wow Cat not being an individual betting interest. A standout in Chile who ran a close second in the Shuvee in her U.S. debut, she is the probable third favorite behind Abel Tasman and Elate in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign on the Travers undercard.

If she can beat them or even run competitively, it will show she belongs among the elite in this country. Further encouraging is that she is fully Breeders’ Cup eligible – which is not often the case with South American imports.

I may also try She’s a Julie (#18, 50-1) as a bomb. A two-time winner at Churchill, she was brave to hold second in the Alabama after chasing a fast pace and may have room for continued development.