King: Kid Cruz solid single in Belmont's pick five
Large multirace exotic wagering begins early at Belmont Park on Saturday, along with the stakes action, with a pick five being offered starting with the day’s first race, the Easy Goer Stakes. So, here is a look at the five-race sequence and my strategy for hitting it.
Race 1, Easy Goer: Rebel Stakes winner Cupid (2) is the class of the race and the most likely winner. But at 3-5 on the morning line and coming off corrective breathing surgery after a 10th in the Arkansas Derby, I can’t feel comfortable singling him. So, I will also use Rally Cry (3), a fast first-level allowance winner last out over the Belmont strip.
Rally Cry’s top-to-bottom form doesn’t match Cupid’s, but he does own the top last-race Beyer Speed Figure, a 95, matching the career-best Beyer that Cupid ran in winning the Rebel.
I would advise using both horses as “A” runners in DRF’s TicketMaker program. No “B” horses in this leg.
Race 2, allowance: Juan and Bina (9) is 1 for 16, but a closer evaluation of his form indicates that he has been at least partially unlucky to catch some talented horses in some entry-level allowances this year. Consider a few of the talented horses he has chased: Ami’s Flatter, Unbridled Juan, and Its All Relevant.
Juan and Bina is my lone “A” play in TicketMaker.
I still feel the need to spread with four secondary horses: Lemon Drop Title (1), Eagle Scout (2), Wake Up in Malibu (3), and Connect (6). Of those, Lemon Drop Title and Connect have the best recent form, while Eagle Scout has pedigree power and Wake Up in Malibu flashy speed figures, even if they were earned last year.
Race 3, Acorn: The first Grade 1 of the day is up next, and it is difficult to foresee an outcome in which Cathryn Sophia or Carina Mia isn’t the winner. They are classy, skilled one-turn performers.
Both come into this race with slightly more than five weeks of rest, with both winning on Oaks Day at Churchill Downs. Cathryn Sophia won the big race of the day, the Kentucky Oaks, while Carina Mia took the Eight Belles in dominant fashion, even after a terrible start.
Cathryn Sophia rates as an “A,” and Carina Mia is a “B.”
Race 4, Brooklyn: Time to take a stand and single the horse I view as the best bet Saturday: Kid Cruz (7). In top form, having won two straight stakes, he holds a significant Beyer advantage, having run figures of 102 or higher in three of his last five starts.
He also likes Belmont Park, having recorded two victories and a second in three starts there – with the defeat coming on a wet track.
Like many others in the field, he is untested at the Brooklyn’s 1 1/2-mile distance, but his strong-finishing style and success at 1 1/4 miles suggest he should handle it.
Race 5, Ogden Phipps: For a race with only seven horses, it is difficult to narrow the group of contenders, so I’m not.
I will have three “A” horses on my tickets: Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner Stopchargingmaria (2), La Troienne winner Curalina (5), and Apple Blossom winner Forever Unbridled (6).
Even with this talented trio, it would not shock to see Cavorting (4) or Sheer Drama (7) register a mild upset. They rate as “B” horses due to Cavorting being accustomed to competing in shorter races and Sheer Drama coming off a lackluster third in the La Troienne.
Pick-five tickets: Inserting the above-mentioned horses into TicketMaker, for $65, an all-A ticket can be played for $1.50, combinations of four As and a B for $1;,and combos of three As and two Bs for 50 cents.