Kentucky Derby picks and analysis from Daily Racing Form handicappers across the United States. 2026 Kentucky Derby (Race 12) Distance: 1 1/4 miles Track: Belmont Park Post time: 6:57 p.m. Eastern TV: NBC David Aragona 1. Commandment 2. Renegade 3. So Happy 4. Wonder Dean I have been impressed by COMMANDMENT right from the start. He displayed attributes in his first couple of maiden races that portended the success to come. That first victory at Churchill Downs in November exposed the determination and boldness that have become his hallmarks. Going for a split at the quarter pole, rivals on either side of him tried to squeeze him out of the spot, but Commandment forced his body into the space, pushing his way to victory. He has obviously gotten faster since that initial win, and his competitive nature remains intact even in deeper waters. Coming through the Gulfstream path of preps, he has fought and defeated the strongest competition of any horse in this year’s race. He also has achieved success by navigating varying trips and pace scenarios, mitigating concerns about him requiring a specific setup. This horse possesses all the characteristics we look for in a Derby winner, and he might not even go favored. The rail draw for morning-line favorite RENEGADE is not nearly as much of a deterrent for me as it seems to be for others. The new starting gate first used in 2020 has generally alleviated the hazards of the inside post. Having faced some softer fields through his preps this year, he isn’t quite as battle-tested as Commandment. Yet he still embodies many similar qualities to my top pick and arguably possesses an even more potent turn of foot. I anticipate that the pace of this Derby will be strong, as it nearly always is. However, if there's one horse that can hang around after making the first move, I expect it to be SO HAPPY. While many will focus on his sprint champion sire, the horse displayed no indicators of distance limitations in the Santa Anita Derby. His speed figures for that final prep are among the highest in this field, and he's won all three starts when using stalk-and-pounce tactics. One longshot that I want to work into my wagers, primarily underneath in exotics, is WONDER DEAN. His Japanese counterpart Danon Bourbon is likely to attract more support, but this horse has more relevant experience navigating traffic in large fields over in Japan, and that should serve him well at Churchill Downs. He is one of the most convincing candidates to relish the 10-furlong distance based both on pedigree and prior performances, and he picks up a jockey, Ryusei Sakai, who nearly won this race on Forever Young. Mike Beer 1. Potente 2. Commandment 3. Danon Bourbon 4. Further Ado Despite being a $2.4 million yearling for six-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Bob Baffert, POTENTE is 20-1 on the morning line. Preliminary odds are based on performance, and Potente will have to improve to win the Derby, though there is reason to believe he can take the necessary step sooner rather than later. His six-furlong debut at the end of January was just a starting point, though he did everything right that day. While he disappointed when forced to contest the pace in his final Derby prep, Potente showed that he is comfortable rating behind horses when winning the San Felipe in his two-turn debut, and he should have the chance to land that kind of trip Saturday. What COMMANDMENT lacks in flash, he more than makes up for with professionalism and reliability. He also happens to be one of the fastest colts on the way into this year's Kentucky Derby. While his recent wins over major Derby contenders Chief Wallabee and The Puma were hardly decisive, it could be argued that Commandment won both races despite not having the best trip either time. Much is being made of the fact that he will have another new rider Saturday, but he runs for anyone. DANON BOURBON invades from Japan, and he is a true wild card in this race. He has been impressive winning all three starts back home while handling distance, though he was so much better than his competition over there that he never faced any adversity. While it is unclear how he will react in a 20-horse field with traffic, he could easily be this good and is likely to be a fair price at post time. FURTHER ADO's maiden win might have been the most impressive effort by any member of this crop last year. Similarly, his recent blowout in the Grade 1 Blue Grass might have been the most impressive effort by any 3-year-old so far in 2026. Both of those races were at Keeneland, but Further Ado is one of only three colts in this field with a prior win over the Churchill surface. Breaking from an outside post works for his preferred running style. :: DRF Kentucky Derby Package: Save on Past Performances, Clocker Reports, Betting Strategies, and more. Brad Free 1. Further Ado 2. Renegade 3. So Happy 4. Potente The scratch of initial top choice Silent Tactic (20-1 morning line) removes a live longshot from the Kentucky Derby field and paves the way for two favorites. FURTHER ADO is the fastest entrant based on his 106 Beyer Speed Figure crushing the Grade 1 Blue Grass by 11 lengths. Though his best races were at Keeneland, Further Ado also won a Grade 2 at Churchill Downs in fall and reportedly thrived over the surface this spring. Further Ado has speed to be forwardly placed just off the leaders. If he reproduces his Keeneland form, Further Ado will be tough to beat from slightly off the pace. RENEGADE is the program favorite based on the Arkansas Derby in which he crushed runner-up Silent Tactic by four lengths. Each recent start by Renegade was faster than the start before, including a decisive victory two back over The Puma, who subsequently missed by a nose in the Grade 1 Florida Derby.  A deep closer, Renegade runs as if 1 1/4 miles will be up his alley. The inside post is a challenge, but not a major concern for a late-runner. SO HAPPY enters off a perfect-trip win in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby at 1 1/8 miles. So Happy rationed his speed more efficiently than his previous route and bounced out in top shape. He has worked well. His tactical speed allows him to create his own trip forwardly placed. The question facing So Happy applies to the entire field – can he stay 1 1/4 miles? POTENTE did not get his preferred off-the-pace trip in the Santa Anita Derby. Instead, he made the lead after expected pacesetter Cherokee Nation broke slowly. Potente ran okay, battling to deep stretch before losing his punch. The best race of Potente’s three-race career was the Grade 2 San Felipe two back when he tucked just off, won by a head, and galloped out super past the wire. The truth is, little separates Santa Anita Derby one-two finishers So Happy and Potente. Both horses run best from a pressing position, and both figure to get that trip in a Kentucky Derby field that has plenty of speed. Potente, after arriving at Churchill Downs, worked five furlongs in a blazing 57.80 seconds. The lightly raced colt is primed for the best race of his career. Wonder Dean and Danon Bourbon are Japan-based colts entering off decisive stakes wins in Dubai and Japan. In addition to forwardly placed runners So Happy and Potente, the Derby front-runners/pace-pressers include Litmus Test, Pavlovian, Six Speed, and possibly Intrepido after he blazed a half-mile workout last weekend in 45 seconds flat. :: Get DRF Kentucky Oaks & Derby Clocker Reports by Mike Welsch and the DRF Clocker Team Marcus Hersh 1. Chief Wallabee 2. Emerging Market 3. Further Ado 4. Golden Tempo Ten Derby entrants merit “can win” status for me. Ordered by post position: Renegade, Commandment, Danon Bourbon, The Puma, Incredibolt, Chief Wallabee, Emerging Market, Further Ado, Golden Tempo, and Fulleffort. Top tier: Commandment, Chief Wallabee, Emerging Market, and Further Ado. Second tier: Renegade and The Puma. Third tier: Danon Bourbon, Incredibolt, Golden Tempo, and Fulleffort. My least conventional opinions are not including any Californians, leaving Renegade out of the top tier, and according Incredibolt and Golden Tempo a chance. Danon Bourbon probably proves not quite good enough, though there’s plenty to like about the look of his races. Incredibolt got moved up after watching training this week – especially an in-person viewing of his Saturday breeze. Fulleffort’s ceiling probably is reproducing his synthetic-surface form. GOLDEN TEMPO might have stuck closer in the Louisiana Derby if he hadn’t gotten knocked around at the start. He’ll outrun his odds. Renegade made the last, best move in a meh Arkansas Derby that flowed to outside stalkers and closers. Physically, he doesn’t stack up with the most imposing beasts in this field, nor does The Puma, though he’s wel balanced and athletic. The Puma has had a busy year; doubt he can improve Saturday. Commandment also might already have hit his ceiling, and I trust him less than others to get in and out of spots. Gut feeling is FURTHER ADO, the likely favorite, isn’t merely a Keeneland specialist. Everyone can see he’s trained fantastically. EMERGING MARKET has physically matured so much in the six weeks since his Louisiana Derby. He has a great mind, does everything right, massive upside – just wonder if next time, his fourth career start, is the time. This marks CHIEF WALLABEE’s fourth career start. I don’t love him like I did Sovereignty a year ago, but I do like him. Chief Wallabee looks like a mini-Sovereignty out there training – same beautiful, effortless, charismatic way of going, same confident air. The Chief beat The Puma in their common debut, nearly took down the much more seasoned Commandment in his second start. Going into the Florida Derby, I asked why Chief Wallabee always had to go through the stretch with his head turned to the right. Coming out of it, I said that he’d lost focus the final furlong. The addition of blinkers already has kept his head in the right place while breezing. And it will get him over the hump in the Derby. :: Get DRF Kentucky Oaks & Derby Betting Strategies by Marcus Hersh and David Aragona. Full analysis and wager recommendations! Mike Welsch 1. The Puma 2. Chief Wallabee 3. Further Ado 4. Commandment It’s easy to make a case for a good many in this promising-looking crop of 3-year-olds, so why not look for some value and hope lightning can strike again in the Gustavo Delgado barn with THE PUMA? After looking over all the preps, it certainly appears the Florida path to this year’s Derby, both at Gulfstream Park and Tampa Bay Downs, was the strongest, and The Puma surely was at the top of the list at both venues. He won the Tampa Bay Derby and then returned on just three weeks’ rest to miss upsetting the Florida Derby by the slimmest of margins. He then bounced out of that well-graded effort with arguably one of the more impressive of all the pre-Derby works over his home base  at Gulfstream Park, which he completed by galloping out a mile in 1:37 and change with his regular rider Javier Castellano aboard. He does his best when racing outside horses and should be able to work out that type of trip after drawing in the middle of the field. And, as was the case in his last start, the price figures to be reasonably generous once again. Obviously, there’s little separating CHIEF WALLABEE and The Puma off their first two meetings, with Chief Wallabee seemingly eligible to find a few extra lengths in the rubber match if his recent workouts with the addition of blinkers are any indication of what to expect on Derby Day. The lone caveat with both horses is the fact that neither raced as a 2-year-old. FURTHER ADO is the fastest member of this field on a numbers basis if he can replicate his two huge winning efforts at Keeneland while returning to a Churchill Downs strip over which he was a Grade 2 winner at 2 and has trained brilliantly over the past several weeks. He has the tactical speed to secure a good early stalking position even from his outside post. COMMANDMENT was the best, albeit by narrow margins, in the two most important South Florida preps, despite racing on a dead rail in the Fountain of Youth and having to overcome a less-than-perfect trip to nail The Puma in the final strides of the Florida Derby. He also gave every indication the extra distance wouldn’t be an issue with an eye-catching gallop-out after his one-sided win in the one-mile Mucho Macho Man to launch his 3-year-old campaign. If Fulleffort’s last two works are any indication, switching from synthetic to dirt will not be an issue. He seems to be peaking at just the right time, will offer plenty of value, but obviously must overcome a dreadful post.