Kentucky Derby picks and analysis from Daily Racing Form handicappers across the North America. 2024 Kentucky Derby (Race 12) Distance: 1 1/4 miles Track: Churchill Downs Post time: 6:57 p.m. Eastern TV: NBC Kentucky Derby field Post Horse ML Odds 1 Dornoch 20-1 2 Sierra Leone 3-1 3 Mystik Dan 20-1 4 Catching Freedom 8-1 5 Catalytic 30-1 6 Just Steel 20-1 7 Honor Marie  20-1 8 Just a Touch 10-1 9 T O Password 30-1 10 Forever Young 10-1 11 Track Phantom 201 12 West Saratoga 50-1 13 Endlessly 30-1 14 Domestic Product 30-1 15 Grand Mo the First 50-1 16 Fierceness  5-2 17 Stronghold 20-1 18 Resilience 20-1 19 Society Man 50-1 20 Epic Ride 50-1 :: DRF Kentucky Derby Package: Save on PPs, Clocker Reports, Betting Strategies, and more. Mike Beer 1. Resilience 2. Fierceness 3. Sierra Leone 4. Just a Touch RESILIENCE did not develop as rapidly as some of the more highly regarded colts in this crop and posted his first career win in start No. 4 on New Year’s Day, though he had flashed some early potential while landing in some very tough races early on. He caught a wet track in the Risen Star, one of the stronger preps in February at Fair Grounds, and more than held his own in that spot while finishing just behind a couple of major Kentucky Derby contenders. He then took another step in the right direction when scoring convincingly in the Wood Memorial four weeks ago. He has gotten more tactical with experience and is improving at the right time for a Hall of Fame trainer. FIERCENESS and SIERRA LEONE, the two favorites, have diverse running styles and have seemingly been on a collision course since the prep season started. Fierceness got the outside draw his connections wanted and will be looming outside the other speed horses while waiting to make his move, which has been devastating when things otherwise go his way. A clean break is imperative, but he has looked unbeatable in his three victories while earning Beyer Speed Figures that tower over his competition. Sierra Leone is one close photo away from entering the Kentucky Derby undefeated, and he might have run the best race in that Grade 2 Remsen last November, despite coming up just short. He needs to avoid traffic from the back, but he is a powerful finisher and has emerged victorious in two of the stronger prep races while making his way here. He might be more reliable than Fierceness, though a clean trip is just as important to him as it is to his main rival. JUST A TOUCH clearly has talent but also has a distinct lack of foundation with only three starts behind him as he enters the Kentucky Derby, a race that is notoriously hard on inexperience (fairly acknowledging here that Mage won last year’s Derby in the fourth start of his career with only a maiden win to his credit). Also, like Mage, Just a Touch ran an excellent race in his final prep while coming up short of one of the top colts in his crop, arguably with the tougher trip of the two. The Derby distance might be pushing his limits, but he appears to be handy enough to avoid being done in by the pace, and there is a chance that he will wind up being as accomplished as any of his rivals when all is said and done. Brad Free 1. Fierceness 2. Just Steel 3. Sierra Leone 4. Catching Freedom The main knock regarding FIERCENESS is price, but he is the Kentucky Derby favorite for the right reasons. Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and fastest of his crop last year, he remains fastest this year. If he reproduces his recent 110-Beyer Speed Figure romp in the Florida Derby, he will likely become the third Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner to win the Derby following Nyquist in 2016 and Street Sense in 2007. That assumes Fierceness copes with a faster pace, gets a clean trip, and handles 1 1/4 miles. Fierceness does not require the lead. He drew perfectly in post 17, outside his pace rivals, and should get a pressing trip in the clear. Fierceness galloped out super in his final work at Churchill Downs; there is no apparent reason he will not handle the Derby distance. If the fastest horse shows up and runs his race, the main question is: Who will complete the exacta? JUST STEEL looms the upsetter. He delivered the race of his career last out, runner-up with a wide trip in the Arkansas Derby won by Derby-ineligible Muth. Was it a one-off by Just Steel? Perhaps not. D. Wayne Lukas trainees typically hold form, like 1999 Derby winner Charismatic and 2022 Kentucky Oaks winner Secret Oath. Just Steel has tactical speed to tuck in behind the pacesetters, in front of the closers. He should be in position to pounce at the head of the lane. Just Steel is a legitimate upset candidate. SIERRA LEONE, likely second betting choice, figures to relish the Derby distance. A powerful finisher, he has three 1 1/8-mile starts under his belt, including two graded wins this year. The longer, the better. Sierra Leone must somehow find a clean trip rallying from far back from post 2. If he gets a trip, favorites could run one-two. The last time that happened in the Derby was 2016 – Nyquist and Exaggerator. CATCHING FREEDOM has developed this season from immature colt to consummate pro. He circled the field to score an impressive Grade 2 victory last out in the Louisiana Derby, albeit flattered by the closers-friendly race flow. But he has improved each start, and if the Derby fractions come up excessively fast, Catching Freedom could partner with Sierra Leone for an off-the-pace exacta. Honor Marie will kick late at a price in his third start of his form cycle. Stronghold has fired in all six starts and might be better than the modest figure he earned in the Santa Anita Derby when he was waiting on the runner-up. Track Phantom is blinkers-on speed. Dornoch is speed from the rail. The pace could be quick. Mystik Dan had a bad trip last out, but his bias-aided 101-Beyer win two back ranks behind only the 110 by Fierceness. :: Get the Inside Track with the FREE DRF Morning Line Email Newsletter. Subscribe now.  Marcus Hersh 1. Sierra Leone 2. Honor Marie 3. Resilience 4. Just a Touch I don’t think SIERRA LEONE will be as high a price as 9-2, but I do strongly believe he’ll win the Kentucky Derby. Only a Remsen Day speed bias and a lack of late focus there – since corrected through the addition of blinkers – stands between Sierra Leone and an undefeated record. Yes, the left front leg creates a stride less than ideal when seen head-on. Don’t care. It’s not getting in his way. Yes, the colt lugs in once he makes the lead. Don’t care. Tyler Gaffalione was ready for him last time and will be ready again. Yes, Sierra Leone delayed the start of the Blue Grass by refusing to be loaded into the gate. Don’t care. This was an act of defiance from an extremely strong-willed and confident horse, not a sign of trepidation or unwillingness. Can’t remember feeling more strongly that a horse coming to the Derby was not only going to handle the 1 1/4 miles but excel at it. The pace will be fast enough. Sierra Leone showed he can go inside and between. Game over. Count me in the camp forecasting a strong pace – 46ish to the half-mile. That’s what HONOR MARIE needs, and this colt, whose top race came over the Churchill surface, albeit in the fall, is cycling up to a career peak. He has worked with aplomb and seems likely to run his best – whatever that is. RESILIENCE is being underrated because typically the prep he won, the Wood Memorial, hasn’t been very good. It wasn’t this year, either, but Resilience is good. Blossoming like the iris and dogwoods in Louisville; floats over the Churchill surface. JUST A TOUCH is a real talent, but I am concerned that he is being asked to pack a lot of development into a short span of time. Dan Illman 1. Sierra Leone 2. Fierceness 3. Track Phantom 4. Forever Young SIERRA LEONE is a nose away from being undefeated, and that loss came when attempting to rally wide over a speed-friendly track at Aqueduct. Adding blinkers helped with his focus, and he showed stretch-running power when kicking them down in both the Risen Star and Blue Grass. After acting up behind the gate prior to the Blue Grass, he worked out a nice closer’s trip from off a fast pace before putting things to rest. He showed the agility to weave his way through horses, and that trait might help him greatly in this bulky field. The barn went five for the last 14 (36 percent, $3.98 return on investment) with last-out winners returning on dirt and making their third start following layoffs between two and four months. He should get plenty of pace to attack, so the key is to navigate a clean trip. FIERCENESS likes to race close to the pace, and last year’s 2-year-old champ has tremendous natural ability to go with his speed. He underperformed in his seasonal debut, but didn’t get away to the best start and then chased wide over a speed-friendly track. The Florida Derby was more like it, as he popped a huge Beyer Speed Figure. He got to the lead against a weaker field in that race, however, and will face some other potent speed types in the Derby. The Todd Pletcher barn has been rolling along lately (7 for 23, 30 percent, $2.16 ROI) from April 18-27. He figures right there when they turn for home. TRACK PHANTOM ran better than it looked when fourth in the Louisiana Derby as the only part of the pace still there at the finish (top-three finishers were 11th, ninth, and sixth after the opening quarter). There are concerns about the distance as well as the possibility of another fast pace, but he’s run fast races when getting a mid-race breather and might take a step forward in new blinkers. FOREVER YOUNG appears the most talented of any Japanese-based runner to compete in the Derby. Unbeaten, he’s traveled successfully to Saudi Arabia and Dubai and displayed determination as well as the ability to carry his tactical speed a distance. He didn’t beat a strong field in the U.A.E. Derby, but he looked good winning and still has upside for a barn that sent out two Breeders’ Cup winners at Del Mar in 2021. Sometimes a hair slow from the gate, he wears a hood as it appears he dislikes kickback. Mike Welsch 1. Fierceness 2. Domestic Product 3. Encino 4. Sierra Leone Obviously it’s been feast or famine to this point with FIERCENESS, although the score is 3-2 in that regard, and those feasts have certainly been fit for a king, no more so than that dominant performance last time in the Florida Derby. He has trained in monstrous fashion coming out of that race, his last two works something to behold, giving every indication he’s sitting on another one of those feast-like performances in the Derby. Certainly his chances could be compromised if things go amiss at the break or in the run to the first turn, but one can make that statement about every horse in this field. From all indications, he’s clearly the best of this bunch and if able to just repeat his last or that similarly dominant performance on Breeders’ Cup Day, it will take a Herculean effort from one of the 19 others in this lineup to beat him. Picking the favorite almost compels one to look for some value underneath, and there are surely a handful of options in this field to fit that bill, including DOMESTIC PRODUCT and ENCINO, both of whom appear to be sitting on big efforts of their own. Domestic Product finished in front of Fierceness in the Holy Bull and really outperformed that relatively soft Beyer Speed Figure when rallying to victory off a pedestrian pace in the Tampa Derby. He enters the Derby after two months without a race, but such a layoff should prove no issue coming out of this barn. He has looked very sharp in the morning of late, both in final works at Payson Park and when more than holding his own in company with Sierra Leone in his final Derby prep here last weekend. Encino not only qualified for a spot in the field with a solid effort in the Lexington, he earned a pretty good figure in the process. Though he returns on relatively short rest, he shows no signs of regressing coming out of the race. In fact, he seems to be flourishing, especially if his final Derby work in company with his more highly regarded stablemate Catching Freedom is any indication. SIERRA LEONE is certainly worthy of his status as second choice in the wagering, not only off his entire body of work up to this point, but that huge and very visually appealing against the bias victory in the Blue Grass. Main caveat here, aside from the relatively short price, is the fact he’s going to have to work out a trip from near the rear of this bulky field, a task that perhaps became even a bit more difficult when drawing a potentially dangerous post position down near the rail. :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.