The list of horses who won the Louisville Stakes after the race’s days as a handicap ended in 2019: Tiz a Slam, Admission Office, Arklow, Cellist, Foreign Relations, Sugoi, and Utah Beach. Arklow stands out – a two-time winner of the Kentucky Turf Cup at Kentucky Downs, hero of the Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Cup in 2019, career earnings over $3 million. The others were solid, far from spectacular. In this Saturday’s Grade 3 Louisville at Churchill Downs, there is a horse who might prove even better than Arklow. Spectacular – that aptly describes the performance Burnham Square put forth April 18 in the Elkhorn at Keeneland, a Grade 2 contested, like the Louisville, over 1 1/2 miles on turf. Nowhere near the lead midway around the last of three turns, Burnham Square hit the finish and eased up with nobody near him. He won by 9 3/4 lengths, and only one turf-route horse so far this year – Rhetorical, in a Grade 1 Turf Classic romp – has equaled the 107 Beyer Speed Figure that Burnham Square’s raw time of 2:32.55 produced. You have to go back to 2020 to find a winning Breeders’ Cup Turf figure higher than 107. And consider this: Burnham Square, a mere 4-year-old, has made but three starts on grass, a good second over 1 5/16 miles in the Nasvhille Derby late last summer, a second in a 1 1/16-mile Gulfstream Park prep for the Elkhorn, and the Elkhorn itself. “He’s not a finished product at this mile and a half,” said Ian Wilkes, who trains Burnham Square for the gelding’s breeder, Whitham Thoroughbreds. “He’s only had that one race. I think he needs a few more races to get that good foundation into him. I feel he just needs more racing.” :: Access the most trusted data and information in horse racing! DRF Past Performances and Picks are available now. Wilkes since early this year has outlined, at least in his mind, a year-long campaign geared at getting Burnham Square to the BC Turf at Keeneland, with major targets before then, to be sure. The Grade 3, $250,000 Louisville, which drew just five other entrants, is much more a stepping-stone than final destination. The morning line lists Burnham Square at a reasonable 2-5, with Brian Hernandez Jr. named to ride. The hope for Burnham Square’s rivals? That he regresses after such a fast race. There’s scant hope. “He’s just full of himself. I could have run this horse back in a week – that’s how well he came out of [the Elkhorn]. He just doesn’t get tired. It’s amazing the confidence he gives you watching him train and race,” Wilkes said. The Louisville drew zero actual pace players. Echo Lane could wind up leading, though Vote No is the one who could at least add a drop of juice to the exacta – unless you are a bold soul willing to take on the overwhelming favorite. Vote No won the Cape Henlopen over this distance at Delaware Park last summer, then finished a creditable fourth in the United Nations going 1 3/8 miles at Monmouth Park. In the one-mile Henry Clark on April 18 at Laurel Park, Vote No checked in a rallying sixth following seriously compromising trouble. Vote No and four others will find themselves in deep trouble if Burnham Square runs to his trainer’s expectations. :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.