An explanation is in order for the Beyer Speed Figure that California Chrome earned in the San Pasqual Stakes last Saturday at Santa Anita. The time of the race was the same as that of the preceding race, a 1 1/16-mile race for first-level allowance horses. Obviously, California Chrome is much faster than Crev, the horse who won the allowance race. The times were 1:43.39. The Beyer for Crev was a 95; the Beyer for California Chrome was a 103. “When figures come up that make no sense, we will consider projecting a figure,” said Andrew Beyer, who does the Southern California figures. “We have noticed in recent years that it happens in a race when the pace is so slow horses can’t accelerate.” The surface was reasonably fast all day, with sprinters shading 45 seconds for a half-mile several times. Crev’s race had moderate fractions, but the result seemed in line with the rest of the day, minus-21 points in Beyer terminology. The California Chrome race had extremely slow fractions (24.82, 49.12, 1:12.90), especially for that caliber of race. Crev had earned a 98 in his previous start and got a 95 last Saturday. He won by almost two lengths, beating a horse who had gotten an 84 in his previous start. If we put a 95 next to California Chrome, we knew that would not really explain his performance. The horses just behind California Chrome also ran much slower than normal. So, we “projected” the Beyer up eight points to a 103, which we think comes much closer to explaining what happened. The slow fractions made it just about impossible for California Chrome to run anything close to his true ability. We don’t like to project, but we do it in an unusual circumstance like this one. “I see no benefit in publishing a number that makes no sense,” Beyer said. On to the Lecomte Stakes at the Fair Grounds, a slightly better-looking Kentucky Derby prep than last week’s Sham Stakes, which was a weak race won by a grass horse with an uninspiring 80 Beyer. Lecomte entrant Mo Tom is my kind of horse. His Beyers have gone from 48 to 65 to 80 to 85 when third in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs. That figure was confirmed when Mor Spirit, second that day, a head in front of Mo Tom, came back to win the Los Alamitos Futurity with an 85. I’m not a huge fan of deep closers like Mo Tom has been in his last three starts, but the numbers are the numbers, and they point to Mo Tom. The best Beyer in the field belongs to Pinnacle Peak, who edged out Tom’s Ready, with Dolphus four lengths back in third, in a Fair Grounds optional claimer a month ago. The huge Beyer jump for all three horses makes me wonder if those performances were one-offs. Pinnacle Peak’s only two wins and best figures were in the only two races where he got a clear lead. So, that could be the answer for his big jump. I am less clear on why the other two moved so far forward, but it does happen as young horses develop. Fish Trappe Road had a nice summer and fall with the New York-breds. Most recently, he was second Oct. 24 in the Sleepy Hollow, getting an 81 Beyer. The third-place horse that day, Governor Malibu, came back to win his maiden and get a 79. The fourth horse, Sudden Surprise, came back to win two New York-bred stakes with figures of 78 and 79. All of that confirms Fish Trappe Road’s figure, but it doesn’t tell us if the 3-year-old is ready to make the required Beyer jump after nearly three months off to develop. The Sunshine Millions Classic at Gulfstream Park appears to be quite straightforward. Mexikoma put together a 97, 96, 93 series, and only one horse in the race, Mr. Jordan, has been close to any of those Beyers in the last three. The good news is that Mexikoma, just 3 for 10 lifetime, with no stakes wins, does not have the kind of form that is going to attract the action you would normally see on a horse with this kind of Beyer edge. On his best day, Mr. Jordan is capable. He always runs his best when he clears the field, and other than Sr. Quisqueyano, this race is pretty much paceless. Sr. Quisqueyano got a 109 when nearly winning the Skip Away last March and a 101 when he won the Sunshine Millions Classic off the claim last year, but he has not been close to that level in three races since then. That the only two speed horses appear most dangerous might actually clear the way for Mexikoma.