Jerardi: Runhappy's figure edge comes with asterisk

The promised review of last week’s four Beyer Speed Figure predictions reveals that two were pretty much spot on and two were a bit off, with extenuating circumstances that prove that how races are run so often determines outcomes and Beyer figures.

The Futurity at Los Alamitos went right to form, with Mor Spirit winning and getting an 88 Beyer, three points above the prediction. Toews On Ice ran second and right to the 85 prediction.

The Tropical Park Derby at Gulfstream Park looked like it had five contenders. The top three were separated by a head and a neck at the finish. The predicted Beyer was a 95 and the actual winning Beyer by Solemn Tribute a 97.

I was beginning to think Stallwalkin’ Dude, making his 18th start of 2015 and his 31st over the last two years, was never going to go off form. Wrong. He went way off with just a 68 in the Mr. Prospector, a race that I predicted would get a 100 Beyer. On his best day, X Y Jet looked like a contender, but I did not see a blowout win and a 107 Beyer for a horse who had never hit triple digits. That is what went down, demonstrating again the power of lone speed.

The Queens County was yet another demonstration of that power. I wrote that it was a tough prediction as the lack of pace made it hard to get a mental picture of how the race would be run. I was thinking a 98 Beyer, with Kid Cruz the most likely winner. Instead, Financial Meeting got loose in moderate fractions, was never threatened, and got a 104, a career best by 12 points, something I could only have foreseen with that exact scenario.

On to the Malibu Stakes and opening day at Santa Anita, where Runhappy, the soon-to-be-announced 2015 sprint champion, jumps off the page with his 113-104-108 series, culminating with that win in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint.

What of the trainer change from Maria Borell, who did such a nice job, back to Laura Wohlers? Without getting into the right and wrong of whatever that was all about, it does give you pause when you know the horse is going to be odds-on and something major has changed since his last race.

Obviously, Runhappy is the best horse by a wide margin in a race where none of the other horses has ever hit triple digits. A big win is certainly the most likely result but, given the circumstances, not the only possible result, with at least three other talented horses in the mix.

Marking has been brilliant in his two wins, getting a 91 Beyer and then a 98 on Nov. 4. This is a rather large jump in class, but this is a horse with serious ability.

Watershed was considered good enough to run in the King’s Bishop in just his second start and was bet down to 7-2 after a 97 in his debut. The King’s Bishop was the race that introduced Runhappy to the world. Watershed did not run badly with a 98 but has not been seen since Oct. 15, when he got an 89 at Keeneland.

Lord Nelson fascinates me. The horse has not run since Kentucky Derby Day, but his form last winter is a strong suggestion. Lord Nelson won the San Vicente with a 92 and ran well against Dortmund in the San Felipe, with a 95. If he has improved a few lengths since May, a triple-digit Beyer is possible, and then this could get very interesting.

Hot City Girl is on an ascending Beyer run as she goes into the La Brea at Santa Anita, with figures of 88, 92, and 95 in her three-race winning streak. She got on a roll after getting blinkers and certainly looks like lone speed. She might have to get a career-best mark to win, but that is possible.

Cavorting simply got too far behind from post 14 in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint but was still able to salvage fourth. With a smaller field and a clear run, I would expect her to run much closer to the 100-93-100 series she got before the 87 at Keeneland.

Ben’s Duchess is working on a 100-89-100 series and, like Cavorting, will be closing and trying to run down a lone speed horse on a hot streak.