When the 20 horses enter the starting gate for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby, only one of them will have a Beyer Speed Figure of 100 or more - Florida Derby winner Maximum Security who actually has two. But half of the rest of the field will have earned figures of between 95 and 99 this year, making this an especially difficult Beyer Speed Figure puzzle. Before we get into how the 2019 contenders are likely to run based on Beyer Figures, a brief history lesson is in order. There was a time when you could eliminate horses that had not hit triple digits on the Beyer scale by Derby Day. That time is over. Over the last five years, the winning Derby figures have been 97, 105, 103, 102 and 103. Contrast that with the late 1990s winning numbers - Silver Charm (115), Real Quiet (107) and Charismatic (108). Fifteen years ago, Smarty Jones won it with a 107. Andrew Beyer’s theory of slower Derby winners is that the modern 3-year-old has so little preparation. Secretariat ran nine times as a 2-year-old, Real Quiet eight. That would be heresy today. Back in 1993, seven 2-year-olds earned Beyers of 100 or more. In 1998 that number was 12. In 2003, it was 10. In 2008, the number was still nine. From 2013 to 2018, however, just 10 2-year-olds hit 100 or more, none in 2015 or last year. So 2-year-olds are running less often and not as fast. It would then stand to reason that 3-year-olds are not going to run as fast heading to the Derby. It’s not that the 3-year-olds are not fast; they are. It just comes later in the season when they have run more often. I went back over the top 3-year-olds numbers for the last quarter century and almost all of them were earned in the summer or fall, well after the classics were done. American Pharoah got his 120 in the Breeders’ Cup Classic Arrogate’s 122 came in the Travers. The great Holy Bull had six figures between 115 and 122 in 1994, but just one of them came in the spring. That is the past. The future will be on display Saturday. Maximum Security is probably not being taken as seriously as he should be. Yes, he could have been claimed for $16,000. Yes, he got an easy lead in the Florida Derby. But the colt is 4 for 4 with combined margins of 38 lengths. He reminds me a little of Big Brown. After starting his career with an 81 and 83, he blew up to a 102 and then followed that with a 101 in the Florida Derby. I do not see Maximum Security as a need-the-lead type, but he has the early speed to get great position and there is certainly a chance he could grab a clear lead and never get caught. The fastest horse is also very likely to get one of the best trips, the kind of trip that has won the Derby five consecutive years. Game Winner got a 97 Beyer last September when he won the American Pharoah. He got a 97 when he was second in the Santa Derby, six months later. That, to me, is not a good Beyer sign, with a big caveat. What happened with the weather and then track closures has obviously affected all the Santa Anita-based horses so there is no question that Game Winner and the other Bob Baffert horses, Improbable and Roadster, have not had the normal preparation that Baffert horses usually have when they arrive at Churchill Downs. It could mean they have not peaked yet. It could also mean they are still behind. Going back to November, Improbable has a 93-96-95-99 series.  I think he is more likely to go forward than backward, but will certainly need a clean trip. Baffert was calling Roadster the next superstar before the throat issues. That he could earn a 93 off the long layoff and then come back with a 98 in the Santa Anita Derby does not suggest superstar, but it does suggest a horse that may be ready to hit the next level. Tacitus took a nearly 20-point jump from late 2-year-old to early 3-year-old. He got great setups in the Tampa Bay Derby (93) and Wood Memorial (97). It’s possible he has a forward move, but more likely, he stays the same or slightly regresses. By My Standards made a huge double jump from 73 to 86 to 97 in his Louisiana Derby win. I think he has one more jump at a big price. Most of the rest kind of look the same to me, not without talent, but nothing suggesting separation from the crowd.