There have been 11 triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures compiled by the 10 horses entered in Saturday’s Pennsylvania Derby at Parx. All of them have been compiled by just three horses – Frosted (4), Upstart (4), and Gimme Da Lute (3). Frosted and Upstart are nationally known because they won major stakes prior to the Triple Crown, ran in some of the Triple Crown races, and have continued to run in major stakes since the Triple Crown. The closest Gimme Da Lute came to a Triple Crown race was on the Kentucky Derby and Preakness undercards when he was third in the Pat Day Mile and then the Chick Lang. I would think Frosted will go favored, with Upstart the likely second choice and Gimme Da Lute third. I am leaning strongly toward Gimme Da Lute for a few reasons. There is very little early speed in the race, so he may be able to control the race from the front. And this colt is hot right now, a winner of four straight at Santa Anita, Los Alamitos, and Del Mar with Beyers of 98, 102, 107, and 99. Admittedly, Gimme Da Lute is facing the toughest horses of his career, but he might be the right horse at the right time. Frosted has never run a poor race in 11 starts and has earned almost $1.5 million. He was good enough to help get American Pharoah beaten in the Travers but not good enough to be the horse to beat the Triple Crown winner. Unless the colt is knocked out from that brutal half-mile battle to the quarter pole in the Travers, I can’t come up with a reason why Frosted won’t fire. His last five Beyers, starting with the Wood Memorial and going through the Derby, Belmont, Jim Dandy, and Travers, are 103, 100, 98, 104, and 102. That’s serious consistency and makes Frosted absolutely the horse to beat. Upstart is a curious case. His Derby no-show was an obvious aberration, but the horse still has not come back to those monster Beyers from last year and early this year. Going back to August 2014, Upstart earned consecutive Beyers of 95, 102, 92, 105, 93 and 108 before the Derby disaster. Upstart returned with a 100 when third in the Haskell Invitational and a 98 when fourth in the Travers – good but not good enough. Upstart is probably going to have to return to that pre-Derby Beyer form to win this race. Madefromlucky has won two major stakes, the Peter Pan and West Virginia Derby, but his best Beyer was a 95 at Mountaineer. Unlike Frosted and Upstart, however, this colt was kept out of the Travers maelstrom and pointed specifically for this race. His trainer, Todd Pletcher, clearly had seen enough of American Pharoah. Island Town blew up in the Smarty Jones, the local prep, increasing his career-best Beyer by 10 points to a 98. He will have to improve a bit more to win this, but he obviously likes the track. Mr. Z is 2 for 17, with $1 million in earnings. Nobody but D. Wayne Lukas could find a way to make that happen. His best Beyer was a 97 when he won the Ohio Derby, and he was miscast when badly beaten in that wild King’s Bishop. But the colt will be prominent early, and who knows? It is Lukas in a big race when nobody will think he has a chance. Unlike the Pennsylvania Derby, the Cotillion has no shortage of early speed in a terrific race with 3-year-old filly championship implications. Embellish the Lace is all speed. She caught a field in the Alabama with no speed and cruised home with a 96 Beyer, a figure that should win this race. She has been all or nothing in her five races. It would appear that Embellish the Lace is going to get pace pressure. The overmatched Desert Valley, just to her inside, certainly figures to show speed, as does Take Charge Brandi, two stalls to Embellish the Lace’s outside. That was Take Charge Brandi’s game last year when she got hot in the fall, won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, and earned the 2-year-old filly championship. She obviously was not ready when she led to the stretch in the Test and hit the wall. Lukas has said she is ready now, but she will have to improve her best Beyer from 2014, an 87 in the Starlet Stakes. If there is a pace battle, the most likely beneficiary is I’m a Chatterbox. She has been in all the big races and never fails to fire. Her last four Beyers are 90, 88, 92, and 94 – not dazzling but very competitive in a year when the best 3-year-old fillies have been consistently slow.