Jerardi: Determining the Wood Memorial figure a tricky business

Last Saturday’s Wood Memorial came up ridiculously slow, 1:52.92 for the 1 1/8 miles on the muddy track. Were the horses really that bad, or was there another explanation?

“The Wood Memorial card was very difficult, and readers are entitled to second-guess our judgment,” said Andrew Beyer, the creator of Beyer Speed Figures. “The Wood was very slow, and that slow time could have merited a figure as low as 82. But Aqueduct has been a changeable, inconsistent surface this year, even under ideal weather conditions. Earlier on the Wood card, the fifth race came up at least 12 points slow; we had to project a figure (assign the race an arbitrary number) because it would have made no sense otherwise. We felt the same way about the Wood and assigned the race a figure of 93.

“This wasn’t a terrible field – it was stronger than the Blue Grass. Outwork and Matt King Coal had previously earned figures in the upper 90s. In a $1 million race that had for weeks been the objective of New York’s leading trainers, it is hard to believe that the top contenders all delivered sharply subpar performances.

“The counterargument,” Beyer said, “is that Outwork and Matt King Coal were compromised by a hard duel with each other, and that some of their rivals may have disliked the mud. The second-place finish by the slow maiden Trojan Nation could support the case that the Wood was a terrible race.

“Nevertheless, no major Kentucky Derby prep race has ever produced a Beyer Speed Figure lower than 90, and a Wood figure in the low 80s would have been implausible. Our projected number of 93 better reflects the ability of the 3-year-olds in the field, but it was hardly generous. It was 10 points below the average winning figure for the Wood since 1991, and it equaled the lowest winning figure for the race.”

Thankfully, last Saturday’s results at Keeneland and Santa Anita made much more sense.

“The Blue Grass figure was straightforward; the same variant applied to all of the stakes races, and the low figure of 91 for the Blue Grass was consistent with horses’ prior form,” Beyer said. “Santa Anita got slower as rain fell during the day, but it seemed to be consistent for the big stakes. Our track variant of minus-16 gave Exaggerator a 103 and Songbird a 93 (equaling her prior start), which made sense for both fields.”

The Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park on Saturday has several very intriguing 3-year-olds who could make a giant move toward serious Derby contention. The operative word is “could,” as time is running out on potential.

Cupid gets better with each race, starting with a 67 and progressing to a 72, 88, and a terrific 95 when he won the Rebel Stakes. Does he have another forward move?

Suddenbreakingnews blew up with that 93 in the Southwest Stakes and followed it with a troubled-trip 86 in the Rebel. I know some sharp people who think that this horse is live for Churchill Downs.

I like everything about Whitmore but the numbers; the 89 and 92 in his last two outs are not good enough. Perhaps the horse will be. This is the time to move up.

The Lexington Stakes at Keeneland on Saturday is a fascinating referendum of sorts on Nyquist because Swipe, the horse who finished second four consecutive times to the unbeaten champ as a 2-year-old, makes his 3-year-old debut. Swipe’s 77-74-78-88 series is much less exciting than the company he kept.

Direct Message, an $800,000 purchase, got just a 54 and a 57 last fall but has improved dramatically this year with a 79 and then a 91 when winning his maiden. A 91 is going to be a very good number in the Lexington.

Collected is 2 for 3 on dirt and is going to the right way on the Beyers, 81, 85, and 90.

Tepin obviously will be no kind of price in the Jenny Wiley at Keeneland on Saturday but deserves a special place in the Beyer turf pantheon with one of the most amazing yearlong grass-figure runs I can remember. Going back a year, she has run eight times, with Beyers of 106, 103, 103, 103, 109, 110, 99, and 107 – Hall of Fame numbers for a horse who somehow has held this amazing form for all this time.