Jerardi: Bit of improvement makes Exaggerator tough in San Felipe

I first began to understand this game in the late 1970s through the prism of Beyer Speed Figures. The numbers tell the story we can’t see. However, at the risk of getting excommunicated from the Church of Beyer, I am telling you to ignore Songbird’s 2016 Beyers.

After topping out at a 99 last year in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, she has an 88 and a 93 this year. I am convinced she can get into the 105-110 range if necessary, so evaluate her on that basis. The big numbers are coming.

Meanwhile, it’s back to this Saturday’s stakes, starting with the 3-year-olds. The San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita appears to have a similar setup to the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, with a twist. Uncle Lino and I Will Score contested that pace, and the winner, Mor Spirit, got the dream trip behind the speed. Add Smokey Image and Danzing Candy to the pace for the San Felipe, and it looks even better for Mor Spirit – until you realize that Exaggerator should get the same trip and might be the faster horse.

In his three stakes tries – two wins and a second – Mor Spirit has compiled an 85, 88, 93 series, the last in his only 3-year-old start. Exaggerator had more 2-year-old experience, with four stakes and an 85, 86, 84, 92 series. He got a career-best 98 when second to the unbeaten 2-year-old champion Nyquist in the San Vicente Stakes, the kind of jump from ages 2 to 3 that suggests there may be even more to come. And if it is coming in this spot, Exaggerator will be very difficult to beat.

The Tampa Bay Derby is more of an unknown because there are horses with potential who have not done it quite yet. Destin made an 11-point jump from the Lecomte Stakes to the Sam F. Davis Stakes when he got a 91 in his impressive win. Like the San Felipe, there is some early speed in the Tampa Bay Derby that should aid the closers, including Destin and the wild card, Brody’s Cause. I love the bloodlines and the 2-year-old rallies, but does Brody’s Cause have the kind of jump from ages 2 to 3 that Exaggerator showed? If he does, he wins because the setup is there for a colt who got an 88 and an 84 in his two stakes starts.

Awesome Banner ensures a fast pace, and he does have the 94 and 90 Beyers in stakes sprints. But that was a total collapse in the Fountain of Youth, not an encouraging development.

California Chrome, Frosted, and Hoppertunity going for the Dubai World Cup has taken much of the high-end talent from the Santa Anita Handicap. Unlike the 3-year-old stakes, there is very little early speed in the Big Cap, which presents a big opportunity for an aggressive jockey.

I don’t know that Donworth is necessarily the most likely pacesetter, but he is inside and could very well clear this field. This is an improving horse who has never had a clear lead and is coming off a career-best 104 Beyer. If he gets loose, I think he is very dangerous, and he is certainly not eliminated if he does not lead.

General a Rod, with the aggressive Rafael Bejarano aboard, also could get the lead. The horse is not terribly consistent, but his good races are really good, with Beyers of 104 and 105 in his last two wins, although they came nearly a year apart.

In addition to being the answer to a trivia question (Which horse finished second to American Pharoah in the Triple Crown winner’s last start?), Effinex has shown serious ability against some very good horses, getting five triple-digit Beyers in 2015, including a 112 when second in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and a 104 when he beat Hoppertunity to win the Clark Handicap. This is a pretty tough spot for his 5-year-old debut, coming across the country for his first race in 100 days, but the talent is there.

Imperative has earned triple-digit Beyers in both of his 2016 starts, a 102 and a 105, but he might be running behind a soft pace, making his task a bit more difficult.

We all knew Bolo was a talented 3-year-old, but I never imagined the colt running down a top-of-his-game Obviously in the Arcadia to get a 106 Beyer after a seven-month layoff. If that is the new normal, the horses in the Kilroe Mile at Santa Anita are running for second. Bolo was absolutely dazzling then, and there is no Obviously to chase now.