Jerardi: Bayern in good spot to regain top form
I have little doubt that Beholder would crush the field in the Awesome Again Stakes, but there is no point in trying since she can run for the same money in the Zenyatta Stakes at Santa Anita, a race she likely will win by a friendly five lengths with a Beyer Speed Figure of approximately 100. The great mare will need to come back to that 114 Beyer in the Oct. 31 Breeders’ Cup Classic, but not a moment before.
I have always been fascinated by the big-race trainers like Charlie Whittingham and Richard Mandella. Like Whittingham, Mandella knows what he has got and when he needs his horse to show it.
The West Coast older males are particularly weak this year, so it looks like a Beyer right around 100 is going to win the Awesome Again. The usual suspects will be in the starting gate, all looking the same with similar running styles, Bayern again being the exception.
Put a line through Bayern’s race in the Pacific Classic as he got caught up in an impossible speed duel. The 2014 BC Classic winner has had four very serious-looking works since then, and unless Smooth Roller is going to run with him, it looks like he has finally found a field he can clear easily without having to run too fast to get there. I can’t say I am confident Bayern is going to come back to the 108, 111, 110, and 113 Beyer series he had last year, but if he is clear coming out of the first turn, there is no horse in this race I would rather have.
Beholder is a joy to watch. Her Pacific Classic was the best performance of the year. I doubt we will see anything like that in the Zenyatta. I think we will see Gary Stevens putting her in cruise control and keeping her there, measuring the margin and the amount of effort, knowing the biggest moment of her career is coming at Keeneland in five weeks.
Beholder can get a triple-digit Beyer on command. The rest of the field has one triple-digit Beyer among them, the 101 that Savings Account got in June.
Warren’s Veneda got on a six-race roll with Beyers of 93, 94, 95, 99, 93, and 96. The last came when she was second to Beholder in the Adoration. Just trying to stay with Beholder can be crushing, as Warren’s Veneda’s last two Beyers have been 73 and 77.
Nyquist is certainly the most accomplished 2-year-old on the West Coast, but he has not run particularly fast yet, with Beyers of 84, 89, and an 82 when he dominated the Del Mar Futurity. Contrast that with the 101 that American Pharoah got in the last year’s Del Mar Futurity, a difference of about seven lengths at seven furlongs.
Typically, when I see numbers like Nyquist’s, I would look for a reason to bet against in the FrontRunner. However, it is not at all clear which of these horses can run a figure good enough to beat him or that Nyquist is not capable of better.
Mt Veeder is at least interesting, with two blowout wins and Beyers of 73 and 78. There certainly could be more there as this colt has won almost as impressively as Nyquist, just not in the same caliber of races.
The figures suggest that the filly Songbird would be very competitive in the FrontRunner, with her 84 in winning her maiden and an 85 in dominating the Del Mar Debutante. Her speed should set up a dream trip from the outside in the Chandelier. Only one of these fillies has gotten an 80 or better in any start, and that was Pretty N Cool’s 95 in her maiden win on a sloppy track at five furlongs. That looks like an aberration as she has come back with a 78 and a 74 when a distant second in the Debutante.
I think the Rodeo Drive, the fifth of the five Grade 1 stakes at Santa Anita on Saturday, is most likely between two mares, Hard Not to Like and Fanticola.
Hard Not to Like has the race’s only triple-digit Beyer, a 101 for winning the Diana at Saratoga. She proved she could travel when she ran down Fanticola in the Gamely back in May, when she got a 95.
Fanticola has a bad post but a great stylistic edge as the only speed in a race filled with closers, most of whom just are not good enough. Fanticola’s last seven grass Beyers are 90, 90, 90, 93, 94, 93, and 91 – not overwhelming but incredibly consistent.