SARATOGA SPRINGS, N.Y. – Crowd clamor caused trainer Chad Brown’s big Kentucky Derby hope, Sierra Leone, to delay the start of Blue Grass Stakes. If Sierra Leone couldn’t handle Keeneland, wouldn’t he melt down before the raving Derby throngs at Churchill? Nah – Sierra Leone was fine. But one race before the Derby, the crowd’s crush and buzz burrowed into the brain of Brown’s favorite for the Old Forester Turf Classic. I’m Very Busy became unglued in the paddock and never got himself back together, leaving his race in the preliminaries, straggling home a dismal seventh. A bust in Kentucky, I’m Very Busy can boost bankrolls Saturday at Saratoga, as the progressive 4-year-old is an increasingly appealing play in the Grade 1, $1 million Manhattan Stakes as the forecast for a deluge here has diminished during the week. “Going into the last race, he was the fastest horse in the division,” Brown said. He might still be. I’m Very Busy is one of nine in the Manhattan, contested at 1 3/16 miles over a course sun baked and firm Thursday morning. By Saturday afternoon rain will soften it. To what extent is the pressing question. :: DRF Belmont Stakes Packages: Save up to 52% on PPs, Clocker Reports, Betting Strategies, and more The nine entrants come from six trainers. Brown also runs Program Trading, while Christophe Clement entered Kertez and Far Bridge. Charlie Appleby, a 40 percent North American turf stakes trainer since 2021, trains Nations Pride and Measured Time. Longshot Ohana Honor hails from the Shug McGaughey barn, with likely pacesetter Strong Quality and Ireland shipper Al Riffa rounding out the field. McGaughey won three Manhattans between 2005 and 2013 and Clement three between 2001 and 2010. Lately, winners have rained down from Brown, as he’s won eight of the last 11 Manhattans. Brown hopes for good conditions Saturday, though Program Trading, who won the Turf Classic, is by European sire Lope de Vega. “Theoretically, he’d have no problem with softer ground, but based on this horse’s form, I’m not looking to experiment,” Brown said. I’m Very Busy, by Cloud Computing, prefers firmer going. “He doesn’t strike me as the kind of horse that wants to plough through the ground,” Brown said. Appleby and Clement have wet and dry covered. Measured Time wants to stay atop the turf; Nations Pride won’t mind sinking into it. The Clement-trained Far Bridge is a firm-turf horse. For Kertez, the more rain the better. Nations Pride scored a course-and-distance win two summers ago in the Saratoga Derby, though his best North American race among seven came last fall at Woodbine, where he earned a career-best 104 Beyer Speed Figure winning the 1 1/4-mile Canadian International on yielding ground. Connections think Nations Pride was too fresh returning from a half-year layoff last month in the Man o’ War, where he was a flagging third, and that cutting back in distance from 1 3/8 miles helps him. So would rain. In his start before the International, Nations Pride won a 1 1/4-mile German Group 1 over yielding ground. Measured Time traveled to New York last fall but left without starting after the Jockey Club Derby was rained off the Aqueduct turf. Lightly raced, still improving, and a winner in five of seven starts, Measured Time has tactical pace and has raced six times over flat oval tracks like Saratoga’s. Making his Group 1 debut March 30 in the Dubai Turf, Measured Time got a good inside stalking trip and was a close fourth of 16, his lowest placing doubling as a career-best performance. Measured Time, near the inner rail, might have never seen the top two Dubai Turf finishers, Facteur Cheval and Namur, who closed on the far outside. William Buick, Appleby’s No. 1 jockey, rides Measured Time. Frankie Dettori is on Nations Pride. Far Bridge closed into a slow pace winning the 1 1/4-mile Belmont Derby last summer but didn’t have his best kick finishing fifth over a loose turf course rated “good” in the Turf Classic last month, his first stakes try against older horses. “His turn of foot is his best asset,” said Clement’s son and assistant, Miguel Clement. “He has a tremendous amount of talent. He has to prove it against the older horses.” A European import bought at auction last fall, Kertez proved capable on French grass courses with plenty of give, and while he never started in a Group 1, he held his own with Group 1 horses like Simca Mille and Skaletti. “My father had a bit of an obsession with this horse. He tried to purchase him the last three years and finally was able to buy him,” Clement said. “It paid off right off the bat. Kertez won the Pan American in his North American debut despite racing over a Gulfstream course far from ideal for his style. His closing sixth in the Man o’ War, a strangely run race with a radically spread-out field, was better than it looks on paper. “He was top class in France on soft ground. We considered this race in case it rains to keep our options open,” Clement said. Thirteen months ago, Kertez finished second by three-quarters of a length to Haya Zark, who won the Group 1 Prix Ganay on April 28. Fourth in the Ganay, beaten a half-length while tiring late after a long layoff, was Al Riffa, a 4-year-old that trainer Joseph O’Brien tries on a course perhaps too tight for the colt’s massive frame. Al Riffa won the Group 1 National at 2 and was favored for the Irish 2000 Guineas in May 2023 before suffering an injury that kept him from racing until summer. In a French Group 2 over yielding ground last August, Al Riffa closed strongly and was beaten less than one length by Ace Impact, a flashy next-out winner of the Arc. Under the Manhattan conditions, Al Riffa carries 118 pounds, getting as much as six pounds from the top weight, and will get John Velazquez aboard. Ohana Honor’s second-place finish was best among three horses exiting the Man o’ War yet he’s the least likely winner among the trio. Strong Quality lacks the quality to hold his early lead past upper stretch. Brown’s two should be finishing fast, and if I’m Very Busy maintains his composure, he can win at a fair price. The colt broke out in his first two starts at age 4, fast races in Florida and Louisiana, and had never acted up pre-race before Derby Day. Adding to his paddock antics at Churchill, I’m Very Busy stuck his foot into the starting gate and had to be backed out of his stall. His Turf Classic is best ignored. “The whole thing wasn’t for him, but it was a very isolated event,” Brown said. “He’s training great.” Program Trading, who won the Saratoga Derby over a yielding course last summer, got a favorable inside trip winning the Turf Classic, his first start since December. He fought tooth and nail with the Appleby-trained Naval Power through the final furlong, but though Program Trading ran his fastest race coming back from a layoff, Brown doesn’t fear second-out regression. “He didn’t run that fast, he got a great trip inside, and you feel like back in five weeks, he’s a low-risk bounce horse,” Brown said. I’m Very Busy could be high reward Saturday – depending on how far he sinks into the Saratoga turf. :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.