Be aware of track bias Most main-track starters at Betfair Hollywood Park will have made their most recent start on the dirt surface at Santa Anita, where they were compromised or flattered by two acute biases prevalent much of autumn – pro-speed in dirt routes, anti-inside in dirt sprints. The speed bias Breeders’ Cup Friday was not a single-day aberration. For most of fall, Santa Anita was a front-runner’s paradise. Nearly 40 percent of dirt routes were won by the pacesetter. This is likely to change on Cushion Track at Hollywood. It is more fair than Santa Anita dirt. On the main track at Hollywood, speed does not carry as far. Closers actually have a chance. The challenge is to know which Santa Anita closer to back at Hollywood. The two-turn bias at Santa Anita was most extreme from Oct. 20 through Nov. 1, during which time 10 of the 17 dirt routes were won by the pacesetter, while 14 of 17 were won by a horse positioned either first or second. Every two-turn front-runner Oct. 20 through Nov. 1 benefitted from the bias. Every closer was compromised, including two that could run back in Hollywood stakes. Soi Phet was the second betting choice Oct. 31 in the one-mile Big Bear Stakes. A closer, Soi Phet raced smack against the grain. He struggled as speed dominated. Soi Phet may return Dec. 14 in the Grade 3 Native Diver. He had an excuse for finishing fourth last out. Tamarando was favored Nov. 1 in the $200,000 Golden State Juvenile at one mile. The closer had no shot against the bias. Tamarando might eventually turn out best as a late-running sprinter, but he deserves another chance going long at Hollywood. Options include the $100,000 Real Quiet Stakes on Nov. 23 and Grade 1 CashCall Futurity on Dec. 14. Soi Phet and Tamarando are examples of horses compromised by the bias. If history repeats, bias will not be a factor moving forward. At Hollywood, closers win. Speed wins. The best horses win. During the 2012 Hollywood fall meet, nearly one-third of main-track routes (12 of 38) were won by a pacesetter. Another one-third were won by horses that rallied from more than two lengths behind on the far turn. The bottom line is that come-from-behinders that struggled at Santa Anita might not struggle at Hollywood. Likewise, a front-runner at Santa Anita might not have the same built-in advantage at Hollywood. As for sprints, a significant bias from Santa Anita will spill into Hollywood. It concerns post position. In sprints at Santa Anita, the inside was ruin. Only 4 of the 91 sprints were won from the rail; just 6 of 91 by a horse breaking from post 2.Total results – 10 of 91 sprints won from posts 1-2. Meanwhile, the outside was golden – 14 of the 91 sprints were won from the outside post (irrespective of field size). Another 21 were won from the next-to-outside post. Total results – 35 of 91 sprints were won by a horse breaking from one of the outside two posts. The two outside posts outperformed the two inside posts by a ratio of 3.5 to 1. Any sprinter who ran poorly from an inside post at Santa Anita has a built-in alibi when he runs back at Hollywood. Similarly, any horse who ran well from an outside post may have been flattered by the pro-outside trend. The rail at Hollywood is not a drawback, statistically, based on 2012 autumn. Last fall, the rail was 16 for 115 in one-turn races; eight others won from post 2. Total results – 24 of 115 sprints won from one of the two inside posts. The inside was fine. The outside also was fine – 13 sprints were won from the outside post (irrespective of field size). Another 12 were won from the next-to-outside post. Total – 25 of 115 sprints were won from one of the outside two posts. Inside and outside were virtually identical. Horseplayers this fall can expect the Hollywood main track to play fairly. This fall at Santa Anita, the main track did not. Handicappers that recognize how much the bias influenced performance will be one step ahead of the crowd. Moccasin preview The $100,000 Moccasin Stakes for 2-year-old fillies will be run Saturday. Over the past decade, four of 10 Moccasin winners were dropping from the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies; four others were exiting the Anoakia Stakes at Santa Anita. This year, none of the six Moccasin starters exit the Breeders’ Cup, but the 1-2 finishers from the Anoakia are in the field – Bajan and E Equalsmcsquared. In a seven-furlong sprint loaded with speed, they could easily run 1-2.