There's a seismic shift in the Standardbred sport revealed only recently at the Harrisburg mixed auction. A sport that formerly moved slowly to change has now caught a windfall of renewed interest in the breeding business that is likely to change the number of horses bred while shifting the fortunes of both stallion and broodmare owners. What the recent notification that has sent a host of horses off to stud reveals could be a boon not just for the breeding industry, but for the population of racehorses over the next five to 10 years. When horses like Karl and Sig Sauer are retired following brilliant careers as 2- and 3-year-olds, it's understandable what owners and breeders are thinking. Retire a horse at the peak of their racing careers and get the benefit of a breeding public that can capitalize on that success in the not-too-distant future. While we all would love to see those horses back as 4-year-olds, the temptation has become too great to risk a downturn in performance and a loss of revenue in the breeding shed. Joining the sophomores leaving the scene for greener pastures will be T C I, and while his résumé is certainly good enough to retire from racing, his sophomore season wasn't nearly as successful as his freshman, and likely in the past would have necessitated a return to a 4-year-old career on the track. That he was so coveted to begin service in Ohio in 2025 made it virtually impossible for owners to accept the risks of racing. Older horses will also be missing from the Open ranks in 2024, with Winner's Bet, It's Academic, Southwind Tyrion and Ari Ferrari J heading to stud next year. We've mentioned seven horses already and haven't even touched on the pacing ranks, which are already losing Captain Albano and Legendary Hanover from the sophomores and Hellabalou from the older group. Even the most expensive harness horse to ever sell at public auction - Amazing Catch - has caught the stallion bug with plans to race him in 2025 as part of a syndicate agreement that will see him as a stallion in 2026. The harness sport has never seen the multitude of retirees in one year that we have witnessed, and it certainly suggests incredible optimism in the breeding business. That's incredibly positive news because two major breeders - Brittany Farms and All American Harnessbreds - are in the process of exiting the business. ► Sign up for our FREE DRF Harness Digest Newsletter As is generally the case when news of a dramatic shift in a business takes place, one needs to examine the rationale that leads to the movement. It is clear there is ample room in the trotting business for new stallions as only a small number have dominated, and some have aged and lost their influence. It does seem exodus is more a part of the economics in the breeding business, led predominantly by state laws that have given breeders mobility and the ability to prosper just by having their mares in residence in a particular state. The state, of course, is Kentucky, and it has become the perfect place to board a broodmare while breeding in any other state in the country. Dual-eligibility, in my opinion, is the major driving force behind the dramatic changes we are currently witnessing. That breeders will have future foals to sell with eligibility on multiple fronts suggests the value of these yearlings will grow. What we saw in Kentucky this year was just scratching the surface of what we're going to see in the coming five years. By laying the foundation with three-tiered Sire Stakes events (really four if you include the Wildcat), Kentucky has served as a road map to those buying yearlings and looking for a bigger bang for their buck. While Kentucky will certainly have a larger racing presence in the future, the Sire Stakes dynamic also works in reverse to the benefit of those dual-eligibles that stay at home and don't travel to Kentucky. Those that remain local will end up racing against lesser company, and thus have a greater chance to earn without needing to travel as far. Ohio has already seen its breeding business grow exponentially since the advent of slot machines and appears more likely than ever to have local horsemen reinvest and add breeding stock to their racing stables in years to come. Essentially, dual-eligibility is also a boon for small breeders as well. It's likely the reason that "Team Burke" has done as well as they have over the last five years, and why others like Andrew Harris and Greg Luther are more focused on buying fillies at the auction that can be turned into money-making machines in their second careers. While the sales figures are quite encouraging, the breeding business remains a difficult one to predict. On that subject, the stallion business is even harder to navigate. Though expectations are always high, speculating what great racehorses will become great stallions is rife with uncertainty. Down that long road to breeding the right mare to the right stallion, getting a good-looking foal and then seeing it to the racetrack, there are dozens of potholes that need to be avoided. Some of sports greatest horses have turned into mediocre stallions. Then there are lesser horses that hit with one or two stars from their first crops and catch a wave of support. The best news that could come from this year's tidal wave of retirees is that more mares get bred throughout North America and the horse supply increases enough to give racing secretaries an easier time in the future. On the other end of the spectrum, there's going to be a slight drop-off in the talent we see at the Open level. Geldings like Highland Kismet may prove to be the stars that make a difference on the racetrack. I wouldn't be all that surprised if one or two of the retiring trotters from this year's large assemblage could be forced back to the racetrack if the potential books fall short of expectations. As a fan of the breed, it's been obvious over time that there are winners and losers in the breeding business, with very often the elapsing of time the difference in what is realized on the racetrack. Horses like Bettor's Delight were not overnight hits, nor was Sweet Lou. Not all horses get the number of mares necessary to achieve a high level of success on the track immediately or ever. Those backing the stallions that retire this year will have to recognize that securing top mares for those stallions may be a tougher battle than any of those stallions ever faced on the racetrack. Here's wishing them all good luck.