On November 16, the United States Trotting Association released the statistics pertaining to the number of mares bred in 2020. The news was certainly encouraging. As of the date of the report (November 12), the numbers yielded an increase of 6.21 percent compared to that same date in 2019. The report further states that "the expectation is that the reports on the numbers of mares bred will increase during the final two months of the year. Based upon previous years, it is estimated that the reported number of mares bred will increase by 1,500 by the end of 2020." If that proves to be accurate, the number of mares bred in 2020 would be in the neighborhood of 16,500 mares, considering that 2019 saw a total of 14,997 mares bred. When comparing the potential figure of 16,500 mares in 2020 to just five years ago, the increase is not insignificant. In fact, there will be nearly 30 percent more mares bred in 2020 than in 2015 (12,811 mares). These figures and projections indicate a noticeable turnaround from the outlook of standardbred breeding a few years ago. In 2004, there were 14,915 standardbred foals born. While the industry is still a long way removed from that figure, there is cause for optimism. In 2014 we hit a low of 7,518 standardbred foals born. That could have been the beginning of the end. Had that decreasing numbers trend continued over the next five years, there would have been fewer and fewer horses to compete at the harness racetracks. Tracks wouldn't have been able to fill cards and we likely would have been heading for a contraction of the industry. Thankfully, the breeding industry has taken a step up the ladder each year since 2014, climbing to 7,952 in 2015, 8,274 in 2016, 8,844 in 2017, and dropping slightly to 8,714 in 2018 due to a reduced percentage of foals being born despite an increase in mares bred. New life has been breathed into the industry, literally. While there is no guarantee as to how many of the mares that have been bred will result in a horse that makes it to the track, if you increase the number of mares bred, you increase the number of horses racing. How bad was it? Well if the trend that existed from 2002-2014 continued until today, by the year 2022, there may have been less than 6,000 standardbred foals born. It is important to remember that the vast majority of races contested in harness racing are overnight races. They are what make the industry go. These races are comprised, typically, with horses that are at least 4 years old and there is a significant impact to the population of overnight races based on how many 5, 6, 7 and even 8-year-old horses are available to race. In fact, it is not uncommon to see horses older than that competing in overnight events. In 2015, there were approximately 12,000 horses between the ages of 4 and 12 competing in overnight events at harness tracks in the United States. Based on the number of foals being born and the declining trend, there were expected to be approximately 8,300 horses in that age group competing in 2020. By 2024, there could have been less than 7,000. How did that happen? In 2004, there were 6,259 breeders of registered foals. In 2014, there were 2,845. Similarly, in 2004, there were 545 breeders that had five or more foals registered and 10 years later that number was cut in half to 275. When it came to breeders of at least 20 foals, that number went from 60 to 31. From 2004 to 2014, 30 percent of the top 25 breeding operations in North America were either out of the game, or on their way out. Keep in mind that the number of mares bred bottomed-out in 2015 at 12,811 and were declining each year leading up to that point. So, in 2020, there were fewer 4, 5 and 6-year-old horses racing that at any point in the industry's modern history. So, in 2021, there will be fewer 5, 6 and 7-year-olds, in 2022, fewer 6, 7 and 8-year-olds, etc. Therefore, even though we are seeing an uptick in mares bred and foals born, the racing industry is still in the midst of an overall shortage of racehorses and that will likely remain the case for at least three more years. But if this new current trend continues, the future for the industry, from a standpoint of breeding and horse population, is much brighter than it was five years ago. Where the mares are being bred is also an interesting observation. Until purses around the country were boosted by slot machine subsidies, New Jersey was at the forefront of standardbred breeding. In 2005, there were 920 registered horses that were New Jersey-sired that sold for a combined $23.8 million at the yearling sales that year. That represented 15.2% of the total yearlings sold and 25.9% of the total sales of those yearlings. Fast forward to 2014 when New Jersey had 161 yearlings sell for $7.1 million, which equated to 4.1% of the yearlings sold and 8.4% of the total sales. Compare that to Ohio and Indiana and the results are staggering. In 2005, Indiana and Ohio combined had 940 yearlings sell for $4.7 million. In 2020, through this past week, there are over 5,300 mares that have been bred in Ohio and Indiana. It will be interesting to see where the industry goes from here. While breeders are more optimistic about the prospects of New Jersey racing for the long-term, that optimism is not at the same level as places like Ohio and Indiana and the numbers tell us that. New Jersey has 16 stallions this year. Albeit from a small crop, Bettor's Wish will be the biggest name on the pacing side from 2020 and names like Walner, Six Pack and Tactical Landing lend hope for the trotting future. But the state is still rebuilding. New York is not in the same place it was 10 years ago, either. In 2010 there were nearly 70 registered stallions in New York. American Ideal was just getting started. Art Major and Credit Winner carried a $15,000 stud fee. Bettor's Delight was in his prime. In 2020, there are less than 40 stallions in the state, about 30% of which are listed as private stallions. Bettor's Delight is gone to Canada. Chapter Seven is the new kid on the block and all the rage, but the overall list of stallions is lacking depth. In the immediate future, it appears as though the Midwest is the land of the standardbred. The industry will be reliant on Ohio and Indiana to continue to build upon the foundation that has been put in place. Hopefully, over time, that success leaks into places like New York and New Jersey and the industry becomes well-balanced in terms of its breeding, leading to an abundance of horses and quality racing everywhere. But before we get there, we are still on the first steps and for the immediate future, things appear to be brighter.