Hard to determine the favorite, let alone winner, of Louisiana Stakes

The Silverbulletday at Fair Grounds on Saturday has Sun Path as a likely defined favorite, while Mandaloun should be bet down as the chalk in the Lecomte. But, odds-wise, things appear much foggier in the Grade 3, $125,000 Louisiana Stakes.

The Louisiana, for older horses at 1 1/16 miles on dirt, drew an appealing enough field, but these horses are difficult to separate. Wells Bayou is listed as the 3-1 morning-line favorite, and maybe he will go favored, but Silver Prospector, Sonneman, and Blackberry Wine should come in for considerable support, too.

Captivating Moon, who races with blinkers added, likely will start in the Louisiana and be scratched from the Colonel E.R. Bradley, trainer Chris Block said. My Boy Jack goes the other way, coming out of the Louisiana and racing in the Bradley, according to trainer Keith Desormeaux.

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Wells Bayou’s only stakes win came March 21 last year in the $1 million Louisiana Derby, where he controlled a moderate pace and won by 1 1/2 lengths over the capable Ny Traffic. Wells Bayou returned in a division of the Arkansas Derby on May 2, dueled on a hot pace, faded to fifth, and went to the sidelines with cannon-bone bruising, trainer Brad Cox said.

Wells Bayou, by Lookin At Lucky, had his first post-layoff workout on Oct. 18 at Churchill, where he breezed eight times before moving on to Oaklawn Park, working three times there.

“He breezed great last weekend and is training really well,” said Cox, who added that Wells Bayou is bigger and stronger than he was last spring. Still, it’s been a long time between races, and Cox said Wells Bayou “isn’t 100 percent cranked” for the Louisiana.

Wells Bayou wants to show speed and probably will hook up on the lead with fellow 4-year-old Blackberry Wine. Blackberry Wine has run some fast races, with a recent Fair Grounds allowance romp yielding a 98 Beyer, and two front-running scores last spring producing a 94 and a 93. But he melted in his lone stakes try, finishing seventh in a division of the Risen Star last February.

Steve Asmussen runs Silver Prospector and Sonneman, both in with a real chance. Silver Prospector beat Wells Bayou in the Southwest last spring at Oaklawn, and is being aimed toward the Razorback there in February, while Sonneman’s connections hope he can develop into a horse for the New Orleans Classic in March. Sonneman appears to be headed in that direction. Sonneman turned a corner finishing second in the Pat Day Mile around one turn at Churchill in September, and subsequently hit a career peak in three two-turn races. On Dec. 19, he made a nice late run at high-class Maxfield finishing second in the Tenacious Stakes.

Asmussen said he’s running Silver Prospector at Fair Grounds rather than in the Fifth Season next week at Oaklawn in order to get an extra week before the Razorback. Silver Prospector last raced in the Grade 1 Clark on Nov. 27, finishing sixth after breaking from post 14 and racing wide.

“He’s been training really well,” said Asmussen. “You hate to run two horses with as good a chance as Silver Prospector and Sonneman together, but this is a step to get them into the handicap division later in the year.”

Ricardo Santana rode both horses last out, but winds up on Silver Prospector on Saturday, Asmussen said, because both horse and jockey will be headed to Oaklawn. James Graham picks up the mount on Sonneman.

Colonel E. R. Bradley Stakes

Logical Myth came out on top in a blanket finish last month in the Buddy Diliberto Memorial Stakes, the first step toward the Muniz Memorial in the Fair Grounds older-horse turf division. Basic handicapping suggests treating skeptically the winner of a bunched finish, but there are reasons to believe in a Logical Myth repeat in the Grade 3, $125,000 Colonel E. R. Bradley Stakes.

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JPS Racing and trainer Joe Sharp claimed Logical Myth for $40,000 in May and added blinkers to his raceday equipment. Logical Myth has since turned in nothing but improved races on turf, and he’s drawn favorably Saturday in post 1 under Adam Beschizza. Logical Myth possesses positional pace, and with an alert break can sit a perfect trip behind likely pacesetters Spectacular Gem and Sailing Solo.

Spectacular Gem faded late to finish fifth as the favorite in the Diliberto, but should improve Saturday. He can win if he avoids an intemperate pace in the early and middle stages.

Mr. Misunderstood was retired after being entered, while Captivating Moon likely goes in the Louisiana.

Duncan Kenner Stakes

Born Great ran well winning a maiden race Sept. 9 at Kentucky Downs and even better landing a first-level allowance there on Sept. 16. His connections try another quick turnaround in the $100,000 Duncan Kenner, a 5 1/2-furlong turf dash, running Born Great right back following a second-level turf-sprint allowance win Jan. 6 at Fair Grounds.

Born Great led in the recent allowance score but seems better suited to coming off the pace and likely will assume a stalking position from post 1 as Readyforprimetime and Just Might go out to lead. Born Great can save ground while Archidust, who won the Richard Scherer Memorial on Dec. 19, breaks from post 8 and could end up rallying wide.