Last weekend, I had the pleasure of working on DRF Live with Dan Illman, one of the sharpest handicappers at the Daily Racing Form. Even in the company of my talented colleague, I still managed to bungle enough plays to leave me shaking my head and asking, “What was I thinking?” Missing an opportunity is like looking out the window of a bus that’s passing a nice restaurant but instead of getting off, you remain seated and watch your fantasy meal fade away into oblivion. The restaurant this weekend was the Poker Stakes at Belmont Park on Saturday. Belmont Race 5 Contenders: (2) Long On Value (3-1): Two races back at Keeneland, coming off a layoff over soft turf, he set the pace and tired late. He clearly was not comfortable on the lead. In his next start, the Dixie Stakes at Pimlico, he had to deal with traffic in the stretch and ran better than his running lines might suggest. On Saturday, in a race that appeared to have pace on paper, if he chose to rate like he did in his Gulfstream race in February, there was the potential for him to get a good trip and run big in his third race off the layoff. (3) King Kreesa (17-1): I played him in his last race, and he led to the top of the stretch before tiring. That was his second off a layoff and was an improved effort from his previous race at seven furlongs. It was possible that he could still improve the third time off the bench. King Kreesa is a horse who likes to be on the lead, and the one thing I knew for sure was that he was going to be a pace factor. On paper, it looked like he might have company with (4) Heart to Heart (6-1) and (1) All Included (3-1), who also had done their best work when forwardly placed. Was there going to be a speed duel? It appeared that might be the case, but on the show with Illman, I presented the possibility that the other two contenders might sit, allowing King Kreesa to get loose. If that happened, then based on his class and history, I knew he would be gone. (4) Heart To Heart (6-1): Coming off a game loss in which he got passed at the wire at Monmouth in a race where he was probably best, he looked like the ”now” horse. The potential was there for this 4-year-old to improve in his second start of the year. His best races all came when he was on the lead, but in his last two, he just sat off the pace. I thought the best strategy would be to contest the pace, but with the jocks in the New York colony, I was not that confident about getting an aggressive ride unless I’d seen the jock do so on the horse before. Luis Saez was aboard for the first time, so I was not sure if he was going to contest the pace or sit. (6) Il Campione (9-5): This Chilean wonder horse had won eight of 10 races and was running for the first time for the sharp Chad Brown barn while adding Lasix. Having watched a few of his races on YouTube, it was apparent that he had talent, but I was not sure about his competition. I wondered if any of the other horses in this field had run in those same races in Chile, might they have looked just as impressive as Il Campione? That said, I felt he was usable, but since his ability at this level was unclear, his 9-5 odds were too short to take. (1) All Included (3-1): This talented runner for Todd Pletcher was working his way up through his conditions and taking a big step up in class. Sporting two wins over the Belmont surface at the mile distance, this 4-year-old making his second start off the layoff definitely had upside. However, given the jump in class, I thought his 8-1 morning-line odds better reflected his chances of winning than the 3-1 offered on the tote. A possible pace factor who had won one of his races wire to wire, he seemed more likely to sit an inside stalking trip. (10) Vyjack (8-1): This 5-year-old stakes winner on dirt was making his first turf start. He had grass pedigree, as his half-sister Tepin had just won two consecutive graded stakes on turf. I thought her sire, Bernstein, was a bit better for turf than Vyjack’s sire, Into Mischief, but if he were to take to the turf, I felt seven furlongs to a mile was the right distance, since this is what suited him best on dirt. This was a tough spot to debut on a new surface, but I respected his ability at the distance. The intent was to watch with interest, but I was not going to use him. The play Coming into this race, I was intrigued by the potential of Long On Value to run a good race and felt that he would rate early and make a good run late, so I disregarded the value in the race and attempted to bet $100 on him to win and play a $10 exacta key box using Long on Value with King Kreesa and Heart To Heart. Total investment: $140. Unaccustomed to wagering while doing a live show, I ended up getting shut out. I had nothing invested, and I was furious at myself for not taking advantage of the obvious value. I deluded myself into thinking there was going to be a hot pace, despite my recognizing that King Kreesa might be able to control the tempo. Acknowledging this possibility but not at least attempting to put in a win bet was careless. At 17-1, King Kreesa was the very definition of a value play. I played Long On Value but ironically approached the race short on recognizing the value. I came away with a new respect for Illman and DRF handicapper Matt Bernier for being able to wager while doing a show. I also got shut out of playing the late daily double, which featured three horses from my watch list: (7) Praetereo in race 9 and (1) Jax Heritage and (10) Memories of Peter in race 10. This was going to be a $50 daily double, 7/1-10, which would have resulted in a $670 profit. Recognizing opportunity and taking advantage of it is nirvana to the horseplayer. No matter what the circumstances, we need to be cool and collected and be in the “now.” Awareness of minutes to post and being prepared to pull the trigger are tantamount toward being successful. I’m not a great advocate of multitasking because I believe in focus, but recognition and follow-through should be executed as a single action. It is all part of a growth process that seems never-ending. 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