I settled down on Saturday night and watched with a blank stare as the images flashed across the TV screen. The chyron at the bottom of the screen posted updates on the big fight in Las Vegas between Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Manny Pacquiao – a boxing match sure to end in a decision, unlike the knockout I experienced during the day at Churchill Downs. Years ago, I learned the lesson of streamlining my play on Derby Day and, as a result, fared pretty well. However, this year I fell victim to impulse and deluded myself into thinking I was more prepared than I actually was and wagered accordingly. Derby week is my busiest week of the year, and for that reason, I no longer wager on Oaks Day. I try to prepare with whatever time I have for the Derby card, but this year I was short on my preparation, and it showed. What was I thinking? Churchill Race 5 I started the day with a losing wager on Lord Nelson at 5-2. I thought his run in the Bay Shore was impressive given the bad trip and was betting that Competitive Edge was not a freak. I was wrong. Competitive Edge was a freak. I wagered and lost $50. Not a bad play because I had a strong history with the races of the top contenders and got a good enough price to play against a horse who might be any kind. Churchill Race 6 My top choice was No. 6, A Lot (4-1), but I played the longer-priced No.  9, Firespike (15-1), to win and keyed him in exactas with the No. 1, Luck of the Kitten (7-2); No. 4, Royal Son (7-1); No. 11, Divisidero (8-1); and A Lot. The exacta came in 11-6 and paid $133.80. On a day like this, betting the longer-priced horse seemed like the correct move, but that was wrong. I didn’t accept the value of keying my top choice in the race. I was a fan of Firespike last year, but on Saturday, he had a bad post while competing against a solid field; five wide on the first turn, and I was done. I overthought the win odds and neglected to search for the value of what I could make from the race.  Why wasn’t I looking at the exacta will-pays, which is a natural step that I take before putting in my bet? A Lot’s loss to Night Prowler in the Dania Beach was a key to my liking him, but I overlooked it and tried to score with a longshot who had a lot to overcome. In addition, the winner, Divisidero, finished ahead of Night Prowler in the Palm Beach, making him a strong play as well. An early card review would have prevented me from changing my wagering choice, and instead, I could have used my time to look for the best value that reflected my handicapping opinion. Churchill Race 8 I did not have a chance to review the replays for this race, which in a turf route is crucial given that trips are so important for grass horses. This was a key race on the card, being the first leg of the pick four ending with the Derby. I wanted to get alive to the Derby in a multirace exotic, giving me more internal exotic options for that race. I used Lady Lara (3-1), Coffee Clique (5-2), Sandiva (7-2), and I’m Already Sexy (13-1) to start the sequence. Post-race reviewing clearly showed that the improving horse was Tepin (9-1). Although I would not have seen her stealing the race on the front end, I saw that she ran against good competition last year and was coming off an impressive win in her 4-year-old debut (despite a wide trip). The replay would have made me pay closer attention.  If I needed another reason, the DRF Clocker Report showed that she outworked Danzig Moon on April 18: After she won, my pick four, pick three and daily double tickets were dead. I also took a shot with a win bet, exacta, and trifecta key using I’m Already Sexy, who I thought would be more forwardly placed. Much like with Firespike earlier, the outside post got me a good price but cost my horse valuable ground and position. Belmont Race 7 I keyed another outside-drawn horse, No. 12, Chasintheblues (18-1), who got outfinished by two rivals but held third for a nice triple. I had it for $1 and made about $200 on the race. I stayed at Belmont, where I liked Tommy Macho (first-time Todd Pletcher starter) and Native Hawk, who in his debut finished ahead of Madroos, who came back to run two good races: Native Hawk went off at 5-2, dueled, and faded to third. I Played doubles with my top two to Pretension, who I liked in Race 9.  Tommy Macho won at 2-1, and Pretension did not hit the board. At Belmont, I could get away with a little less preparation because I watch replays and keep notes of this circuit daily. So, despite the losses in Races 8 and 9, I did not feel overwhelmed by the results. Churchill Race 10 It seemed that I was chasing price horses breaking from outside posts all day. Grand Arch went off at 9-1 from the No. 12 position. I played him to win and keyed in exactas and triples. I tried to get alive in daily doubles to five horses in the Derby: Dortmund, Firing Line, Upstart, Frosted, and American Pharoah. Grand Arch stalked the pace from outside and flattened out in the stretch. I was not alive to anything in the Derby and would have to play it straight. A closer look at Grand Arch might have alerted me to distance limitations, and with that post, I was asking a lot, even at 9-1. A lot of time before the Derby Wagered and lost $200 at Belmont. The Kentucky Derby I have been a Dortmund fan for a long time; 4-1 seemed fair to me, so I played him to win and place. In the Derby, with its pool and field size, a place bet usually will return more than on most other days. I also keyed him in exactas with Firing Line (9-1), Upstart (15-1), and Frosted (10-1) and used the same group of horses as keys in triples. Dortmund ran well, but American Pharoah (5-2) ran better. Belmont Race 11 I was running on fumes. Belmont still had a couple of races left, and I had an opinion. I liked Classy Class (8-5), so I played him to win and keyed him on top of Gold Shield (3-1), Gridley Here (7-1), and Inca Saint (10-1) in exactas and triples. I should have played the superfecta since they finished 1-2-3-4. I wasn’t looking for a score, but I did regain a modicum of confidence. Conclusion If your preparation is not as thorough as you would like, you should adjust your wagering strategy by using a lower percentage of your bankroll than you are accustomed to betting with. My mistake was that I deluded myself into thinking that I was well prepared for the Derby card when, because of the hectic week, I clearly was short. I had no time to review replays or take notes. Nor did I study basic supplemental info like the workout reports and charts, but still I wagered as though it was a regular day, where my routine covered these areas. Without the edge of detailed study, my chances of winning were diminished, and my approach should have been adjusted. I didn’t cash a single ticket at Churchill on Derby Day. The winning wagers I made at Belmont eased the pain a little. When the smoke cleared and the day ended, I found I was swinging and missing at races out of my strike zone, and when I did connect, it was with a lighter bet from a diminished bankroll. I was wise to pass the races on Oaks Day, where I knew I had no chance because of time constraints in preparation. I was foolish to think that a cursory look at the Derby card would get me through. Tomorrow I will be better prepared … “Our greatest glory is not in never falling, but in rising every time we fall.” – Confucius