Aqueduct | Race 8 | Post Time 4:04 p.m. (ET) The one-mile distance of this New York-bred maiden race is the prevailing variable that could separate the contenders. Few are proven going this far, which is one reason why a horse like Askingforafriend (#7) could attract plenty of support. He has actually run well over this distance on the dirt, finishing second in an off the turf race at Saratoga. The other reason that he'll take money is that he's ridden by Flavien Prat, who has been getting hammered by the bettors in nearly every race at Aqueduct since the start of this meet. My problem with Askingforafriend is that his lone competitive dirt effort was achieved over a sloppy track out of the Wilson Chute at Saratoga, and I'm not convinced that form will translate to a dry, harrowed surface. All of the other contenders are stretching out in distance. A few of them exit the same Nov. 14 race at 6 1/2 furlongs, where Twohonestmischief (#3) finished nearest to the winner at the end, just missing by a neck. This horse has had prior opportunities to try the mile and has failed to get the distance, but he does appear to be in better form now than when he last stretched out. I expect him to run well, but he's a little hard to endorse as an 0 for 14 maiden. Kaz Oil Changer (#2) might be the most convincing of all for this stretch-out, since he started out his career in a pair of 1 1/8-mile races. That was a bit far for him, but he got totally run off his feet when cut all the way back to a sprint last time. This one-mile trip should be a happy medium for him. My top pick is a horse who has never had the opportunity to go this far. Probability (#5) was well supported by the bettors in both starts during his 2-year-old season, and his performances were mildly disappointing. He did have some excuses, catching a sloppy track on debut and racing a bit greenly in both starts. He just seemed like a work in progress that would appreciate more ground, and now he's finally stretching out as a more mature horse. He also switches into the barn of Will Walden, who can have runners ready off layoffs and has performed very well with the horses he ships to the NYRA circuit. Furthermore, I watched his recent Nov. 16 workout at Churchill, where he hooked up with the Brendan Walsh-trained Gosger. Probability clearly outworked the Preakness runner-up, galloping out several lengths ahead past the wire. I'm expecting a big step forward in his return.