Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Luther gets back to preferred distance in Hall of Fame

Saratoga | Race 7 | Post Time 4:36 p.m. (ET)

Zulu Kingdom (#7) figures to be a strong favorite in this National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame Stakes as he seeks to stay undefeated in four starts since returning as a 3-year-old. It's a little surprising to see him running in races like this rather than the Belmont Derby and Saratoga Derby after he already achieved a Grade 1 victory in the American Turf. However, Chad Brown seems convinced that he's a pure miler who will be better suited to focusing on this specific distance. He won over this same course and distance in the Manila last time, but he wasn't as visually impressive as his price suggested. He did race two- to three-wide throughout, which was not an ideal trip over a course that was favoring inside paths. I think he's a deserving favorite, but I didn't view him as unbeatable at a very short price.

One reason why I believe the favorite could be vulnerable is the expected pace scenario. There is plenty of speed in this field, led by confirmed frontrunner Mi Bago (#1). This horse has one way to run, and that's going fast on the front end. Yet there are plenty of others who figure to be attending the pace, and even Zulu Kingdom tends to pull forward early in his races, so I wonder if a stern pace could detract from the favorite's finishing kick. Clever Again (#5) is another horse who should be vying for forward position, but he's still an intriguing contender as he makes the surface switch to turf for the first time in his career. This horse has strong European turf breeding on the bottom side of his pedigree and has worked very well over the Oklahoma turf course in the morning. He's a real threat if he can transfer his form to grass.

My top pick is Luther (#2), who makes his second start in North America after finishing third in the Belmont Derby last time out. He got within striking distance in upper stretch and just seemed to flatten out in the final furlong, a sign that this turnback in distance may suit him. He also struggled with a longer distance in the Prix du Jockey Club two back, but he ran the best race of his career going a mile in the Group 1 Poule d'Essai des Poulains in May. He drew a difficult outside post position that day and still finished well for fourth after a wide trip. I don't mind the rider switch to Joel Rosario, an expert at launching late rallies on turf.