Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Longshoreman can rebound in Futurity coming off tough trip
Belmont at the Big A | Race 6 | Post Time 3:51 p.m. (ET)
The expected scratch of Outfielder (#1) significantly alters the complexion of this Futurity, since it takes out the likely favorite as well as a key pace player.
Wesley Ward will instead start that runner's uncoupled stablemate, Longshoreman (#4), who now looks like a candidate to lead this field from gate to wire. This colt set a fast pace before getting reeled in on debut at Keeneland, and then easily broke his maiden when sprinting 5 furlongs at Churchill in his next start. I really liked the way he accomplished that victory – quickly establishing the lead, relaxing up front, and kicking for the wire. Wesley Ward then stepped him up against winners at Kentucky Downs, and things went wrong right from the start. He didn't break as sharply and found himself behind a flight of runners early. From there, he got a little rank and was shuffled back to upper stretch before staying on late. He's better than that, but he at least showed that he can handle added distance. I expect him to get sent to the lead here, and he should prove tough to catch.
Intricate Spirit (#3) is perhaps the main pace rival for the Ward runner, but I wonder if the connections will look to settle him behind that foe early given his tendency to get a little rank. He was trying to run off up front last time and couldn’t fend off the late challenge of the talented Street Beast. He's a contender cutting back here, but he needs to work out a trip.
I'm a little more interested in a pair of runners exiting Saratoga debut victories as horses to use with my top pick. Attfield (#6) took down the highly regarded Schwarzenegger in his debut in late August. He did save ground all the way but nevertheless put in a strong stretch bid to nail that rival on the wire. He probably doesn't have to be as far back here if the pace is moderate.
Belgian (#7) is a wild card switching to turf for George Weaver. He earned a strong 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure for his off-the-turf debut victory. I don't think he was beating much of a field that day, but he displayed an impressive turn of foot to draw off by 11 lengths. He does have enough turf pedigree to handle this surface, but I don't love that he's likely to take money off a dirt performance.