Forever Young tops U.A.E Derby, looking to clinch Kentucky Derby spot

Maybe Forever Young was a gritty winner over a distance short of his best last month in the Saudi Derby. Or maybe the fact he fought tooth and nail to best New Jersey-bred Book’em Dannno signaled that the colt’s Kentucky Derby chances are more hype than hope. If Forever Young really is a Derby horse, he should handle the 10 horses he faces Saturday at Meydan Racecourse in the Group 2, $1 million U.A.E. Derby.

There were 13 entered in the U.A.E. Derby, contested around two turns at 1 3/16 miles, but Killer Collect and Satono Phoenix, the latter one of five Japan-based entrants, were early scratches. That moves Forever Young, another Japanese runner, from post 13 into post 11, a poor draw with a relatively short run to the turn, but one that Forever Young ought to overcome.

Trained by Yoshito Yahagi, Forever Young is a son of Real Steel and the Congrats mare, Forever Darling, and despite the fact turf racing is king in Japan, Forever Young was campaigned from the start as a dirt horse. The colt has scope and substance to him, making his first two starts in 1 1/8-mile contests and winning with aplomb. Cut back to one mile in his third outing, at Kawasaki Racecourse, Forever Young dominated by seven lengths, but it was different story in Saudi Arabia.

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Kawasaki has a small racing oval, and Forever Young won there racing around two turns. The one-mile Saudi Derby is run around one turn, and Forever Young never seemed to find the rhythm he’d established in his Japan starts. Racing down the long homestretch on the wrong lead, Forever Young was life and death to win by a head over Book’em Danno, though it’s fair to note Book’em Danno is a talented colt around one turn; before the Saudi Derby, he was an impressive winner of the seven-furlong Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay.

A win or a second-place finish will afford Forever Young’s connections a chance to go to the Derby, since the U.A.E Derby is a major cog in Churchill Downs’ Road to the Kentucky Derby. The first five finishers earn 100, 50, 25, 15, and 10 qualifying points in the system that determines which 20 horses make the Derby field, should the connections of more than that number desire a spot in the gate.

There is just not much to oppose Forever Young here. Aidan O’Brien runs two, Henry Adams and Navy Seal, both making their dirt debut, though Navy Seal has started on all-weather surfaces. Henry Adams has the higher-level form and is the mount of leading stable jockey Ryan Moore.

Pandagate exits a win in the Gander Stakes for New York-breds, but the 86 Beyer Speed Figure he earned in that one-turn mile compares favorably to what Book’em Danno brought to Saudi Arabia.

“He’s got a huge stride and he stays,” trainer Christophe Clement said. “I thought the race made sense.”

And if Forever Young is vulnerable, the U.A.E. Derby could make Pandagate’s connections a lot of money.

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