Florida-bred Nearly’s story is one full of nearlys. Breeder Kris Gibbons nearly didn’t wind up with his dam, Ib Prospecting, persisting to acquire her after losing the shake for her multiple times at the claim box. And the mare nearly didn’t have a Not This Time colt, as her first season being bred to the stallion was unsuccessful. Gibbons persisted, and Ib Prospecting got in foal to the stallion just before his stud fee skyrocketed. Now that resulting colt, Nearly, is nearly ready to make plans to head to Kentucky. The Grade 3 Holy Bull winner, who now races for Centennial Farms, has his final Kentucky Derby prep this Saturday in his home state, in the Grade 1 Florida Derby. :: KENTUCKY DERBY 2026: Top contenders, point standings, prep schedule, news, and more Gibbons owns Wind Hill Farm in Morriston, Fla., with her husband, Howard. It’s a small operation, as she values a hands-on approach to foaling and raising young stock, and it has turned out quality. Wind Hill’s first mare, purchased in 1995, was To the Hunt, who produced multiple Grade 1 winners Starrer and Stellar Jayne. Wind Hill also has bred 2002 Sovereign Award champion Brusque and Grade 1 winner Things Change. But the potential to have one of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby is different. “Truthfully, I don’t think it’s sunk in,” said Gibbons, who will be on hand Saturday at Gulfstream. “I’m trying not to think about it, because if I think about it, then I just get so nervous and so wound up. Anything can happen, right? And the other day, I thought, oh my gosh, this is the Derby. Okay, stop. You can’t concentrate on it yet. So, you know, fingers crossed he runs really well in the Florida Derby.” Ib Prospecting, a daughter of Mineshaft out of Stormy Frolic, caught Gibbons’s attention when she won a maiden-claiming race at Santa Anita in April 2018. One of the Wind Hill broodmares, Frolic’s Appeal, was from the same family. Gibbons called a bloodstock agent friend, who arranged for trainer Paddy Gallagher to attempt to claim the mare in California. “We got it all arranged, and the first time she ran back, there were seven claims in for her,” Gibbons recalled. “We lost that shake, and I said, let’s keep trying. They ran her back, the next time there were five claims, we lost that. Oh, my God. And I said, let’s go try to buy her privately. The owner at the time did not want to sell her, so they ran her back, and that time we got her.” After claiming Ib Prospecting for $25,000 out of that August 2018 race, Gibbons bred the mare to Bolt d’Oro, and she delivered Diente d’Oro in 2020. She then had a few difficult seasons carrying a pregnancy. The mare aborted when bred to Good Magic, then went to Not This Time’s court for the first time in 2021, the year his second crop was hitting the track. Ib Prospecting didn’t have success with that mating, but Gibbons persisted the following year. “I’ve always liked Giant’s Causeway, and Not This Time was just starting to catch on,” Gibbons said. “And for us, for our level, it was a pretty reasonable stud fee at the time. I said, okay, we’re going back, and then she got in foal, stayed in foal, so that’s how it all came about. We just kept crossing our fingers.” It was good timing. Not This Time was standing for $45,000 in that 2022 season. That year, he sired his first Eclipse Award champion, Epicenter, and his fee jumped to $135,000 in 2023 and has gone up since with continued success. Nearly arrived in February 2023 at Wind Hill in Florida. Gibbons sells her young stock to keep her operation solvent, and Centennial went to $350,000 to acquire Nearly at the Keeneland September yearling sale. Ib Prospecting produced an Authentic filly in 2024 and a Taiba colt in 2025. Sadly, that would be her final foal. Ib Prospecting died in the summer of 2025, when an immune system issue led to complications that caused her to founder. “She was just such a kind, great, fun mare to own,” Gibbons said. “Nearly has got her head and her eye. She just had that big, beautiful eye, you know?” Nearly, who Gibbons hopes will carry the mare’s legacy, was described as a “mischievous kid” while growing up in Florida. “As a young horse, he was always really independent,” Gibbons said. “He would just wander all over the place, and [his dam] wasn’t too concerned. She’d let him wander, and every now and then she’d go over and get him or nicker or whatever. He just wanted to be around people all the time. You’d go into the pasture and he’d come running up to you like, ‘Hey, hey, time to play, time to play!’ Sweet, but playful. “So that’s why we gave him this big ball to play with to occupy his time, because he was bored and he just wanted somebody there all the time. He learned how to pick it up and shake it and that sort of thing, but then he taught himself how to play soccer. He would go all around the paddock with his legs turning and jumping and kicking.” Child’s play, at the time. But Gibbons believes Nearly’s youthful games in the field served him well. In an allowance race Jan. 2 at Gulfstream, Nearly was bumped hard by an inside foe and knocked several paths sideways at the break. He shrugged it off and recovered for a five-length triumph that propelled him to stakes company. “I really think the athleticism and the agility [from playing] really helped him,” Gibbons said. “He got up and went on like nothing happened.” Nearly was the last of Ib Prospecting’s foals born in Florida. Her final two foals were born in Kentucky, at the urging of Denali Stud, which consigns the Wind Hill horses at auction. “For years, they said, you’ve got to have Kentucky-breds,” Gibbons said. “They finally convinced me that I was hurting myself from a marketing standpoint. So I started sending the mares to foal there and be bred, and then they come back here and we raise them.” While Kentucky purses do, indeed, make horses born in the state eligible for lucrative Kentucky Thoroughbred Development Fund awards, there have been some hopeful updates for the Florida industry in recent weeks. The Florida legislature adjourned its regular 2026 session in early March without the state Senate taking up a bill that would have allowed Gulfstream to decouple its racing and casino licenses. The bill has been supported by Gulfstream’s parent company, 1/ST Racing and Gaming, but opposed by nearly every other Thoroughbred constituency in the state, led by the Florida Thoroughbred Breeders and Owners Association. Meanwhile, Gulfstream and the Florida Horsemen’s Benevolent and Protective Association announced plans to add bonuses for Florida-breds to several races to support year-round horsemen and to add several stakes for Florida-breds to the track’s schedule. “They’re really trying hard to bump up the program here with the breeders’ awards and that sort of thing,” Gibbons said. “You have to give credit to the stallion farms down here that keep bringing in stallions and keep trying to bump up the market here. And, you know, I think it’ll get here. . . . It’s getting more competitive, and they’re doing better purse structures, better breeders’ awards, so hopefully that’ll make a difference, right?” A Florida-bred winning the Kentucky Derby? That could make a difference, too. :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.