In this series DRF handicapper/linemaker David Aragona provides his opinion of what constitutes fair win value for each runner in a weekend stakes race. The goal of this series is to bypass standard ordinal selections, instead developing price-based opinions around every horse in the field for the purpose of informing sound wagering decisions. Like many handicappers, I underestimated Mage’s chances of winning the Derby, focusing too much on historical trends of lightly raced horses underperforming on the first Saturday in May. Yet Mage had displayed raw talent in his tough trip runner-up effort in the Florida Derby, only needing to extend his upward trajectory in Kentucky. Indeed, he stepped forward and the trip worked out perfectly, his typical slow start putting him in position to take advantage of a wicked early pace. Yet he didn’t win on luck alone, as the colt showed mental and physical fortitude belying his light résumé in that victorious run.  Now Mage moves on to the Preakness, and despite winning as a 15-1 Derby longshot he is the only horse from Churchill Downs to take on the second jewel of the Triple Crown. Going to post against six new shooters of varying quality, he is undeniably the horse to beat.  :: DRF's Preakness Headquarters: Contenders, latest news, and more The grid below displays my revised expected odds for the race after the scratch of First Mission, as well as my fair odds and expected value on each horse. Fair odds represent my opinion of a runner’s actual chances of winning.  I rate Mage’s probability of success in this Preakness at about 50 percent, which translates to fair odds of even-money. His Derby-winning Beyer of 105 makes him a standout, and his TimeformUS Speed Figure for the race was similarly fast. He does have to overcome the quick turnaround, but trainer Gustavo Delgado has strong statistics with this move. DRF Formulator’s trainer pattern tool reveals that Delgado is 8 for 23 (35 percent, $2.39 ROI) with last-out winners coming off layoffs of 1 to 20 days in dirt races over the past five years, with 16 of those 23 finishing in the money.  The chief concern for Mage is his tendency to break a step slowly from the gate, especially given the fact that this Preakness figures to feature a slower early pace than the Derby. However, he’s a handy horse whose versatility has allowed him to work out trips from wherever his start puts him. The turn of foot that he’s displayed recently should be able to get him out of any potential trouble, but it is still a minor worry at what figures to be a short price.   I’m not exactly viewing Mage as a great win bet, but his high probability of winning this race does create a situation where value is in short supply everywhere else in this field. That’s especially true after the Friday morning scratch of his main rival, First Mission. The likely second choice now becomes National Treasure, who has obviously earned some competitive speed figures and may have a favorable trip coming. Yet I question whether this is the right distance for him and doubt he’ll go off as high as my 4-1 fair odds.  :: Get ready to bet the Preakness! Join DRF Bets and score a $250 Deposit Match + $10 Free Bet + Free PPs - Promo code: WINNING The only price horse that I could potentially get interested in is Red Route One, if he drifts up from his fair odds of 8-1. Yet Red Route One is the sort of horse whose chances of collecting a minor award are significantly higher than his probability of winning, considering his running style and the expected pace scenario. He might be best used as a key horse underneath in exactas and trifectas.  The bottom line is that my fair odds and expected value for this Preakness fail to reveal a vertical wager that’s worth attacking. I’m open to revising this view when wagering opens, but I’m not expecting any miracles. :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.