Europeans look poised for big Breeders' Cup Friday
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ARCADIA, Calif. – Tuesday morning outside the international quarantine facility tucked into the northwest corner of the Santa Anita backstretch, the great English photographer Edward Whitaker watched a couple European horses walk through the chain-link fence gate and down toward the racetrack for their first morning training since arriving Saturday night in America. Whitaker has been working Breeders’ Cups for decades.
“This is the best group of European horses that have ever come,” he said.
Anecdotal? Sure. Accurate? Possible and to be determined this weekend.
It’s not just Europeans. Japanese horses are strong, much more Saturday than Friday. Friday’s what this is all about.
Juvenile Turf Sprint
International runners in main body: 6
Win chance: Solid
Contenders: Big Evs
With Crimson Advocate drawn on the rail, Big Evs becomes the Juvenile Turf Sprint’s most likely winner. Both horses are going hard for the lead, and the one drawn outside the other in such situations typically holds an edge. That, and Big Evs might just be quicker.
You probably never have seen a European horse break from the gate like Big Evs. He has amazing reaction time at the start, then hits high gear far faster than his rivals – at least so far. He doesn’t slow down much, either.
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Big Evs is alone among the Europeans as a pure five-furlong specialist, and while he’s 2 for 2 on soft ground and ran incredibly over such a course winning at Doncaster last out, the crazy thing is that Big Evs prefers the firmer footing he’ll find Friday. Best just to ignore his Nunthorpe flop against older horses.
Big Evs handled himself well his first day training in America and didn’t even require a pony to go to and from the racetrack. He’s a modest- to smaller-sized horse but well balanced and exuding a controlled energy. Most Americans haven’t heard of his trainer, Mick Appleby, but he’s the king of the winter all-weather circuit in England.
Don’t say nevers: Tiger Belle, Givemethebeatboys, Cherry Blossom, Valiant Force
Tiger Belle won her most recent race, a straight-course Group 3 in France, getting to the lead and making all the pace. In fact, all four of these horses have shown some measure of early speed, at least occasionally. The problem is, they aren’t as fast as the true pace players in this race and will have to adapt accordingly.
Tiger Belle won in France but shipped from Ireland, the Prix d’Arenberg last out her best performance yet. She was mentioned as a candidate to face older rivals in the Group 1 Prix de l’Abbaye but instead was sold to American connections. She might be best suited by a little more give in the ground.
Givemethebeatboys broke poorly and raced from behind in the Phoenix Stakes but in his other three starts following his debut he has gone to the front. That hasn’t been working, at least with the high-level competition he’s been keeping, with Givemethebeatboys giving way in the late stages of all those starts, somewhat dramatically late in the Middle Park.
Cutting back from the six furlongs he’s been running to five on Friday theoretically seems like a good thing, but at this distance he’ll be outrun to the lead. Ireland-based trainer Jessica Harrington is highly successful overseas, but so far has whiffed in America – from six runners she has two fifths, two sixths, and two eighths.
Cherry Blossom, a filly, brings a profile similar to Givemethebeatboys, showing speed in longer straight-course sprints but not getting home. In the Lowther Stakes at York, she was beaten one length by Relief Rally, whom Crimson Advocate held off in the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot. Trainer Aidan O’Brien has been third, fourth, eighth, and 14th with his Juvenile Turf Sprint starters.
Finally, Valiant Force, who is about a foot taller than Big Evs and doesn’t have the body type of a sprinter. He blew up the Ascot tote board at 150-1 winning the Norfolk Stakes by a convincing margin and has the best chance among this group. The colt prefers faster ground to soft, which he got last out in the Prix Morny, and his trip in the race before Ascot was odd, with Valiant Force going alone near the far-side rail, the race’s other five horses far away on the stand’s side rail.
Whatevers: Starlust
Only Starlust among the Euros has raced around a turn. Alas, he is the slowest of the group and on established form and likely running position should be 50-1. He does have a good trainer in Ralph Beckett, and Frankie Dettori rides him.
Juvenile Fillies Turf
International runners in main body: 5
Win chance: Solid
Contenders: Porta Fortuna, Carla’s Way
Porta Fortuna is difficult to decipher. She faded and barely held third in her worst race of the summer and fall, the Moyglare Stud Stakes, a seven-furlong contest that marked the filly’s lone start beyond six furlongs. Did she tire at the longer trip? Or did she run below form on a course she didn’t like? U.S. past performances call the going good, but that’s inaccurate. Overseas form lines don’t accord, either: Some call it good to soft, others good to yielding.
Porta Fortuna exits the pinnacle of her career, a strong win Sept. 30 at Newmarket in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes, the most important six-furlong race for 2-year-old fillies in Europe. Is the Breeders’ Cup something of an afterthought? There are Americans in her ownership group, after all. Or has the filly just fully found herself, bringing peak form to California?
The way Porta Fortuna powered through the uphill finish at Newmarket in the Cheveley Park, we should probably put the Moyglare Stud down to course conditions. The filly prefers fast ground, and while her sire, Caravaggio, gets sprinters and milers, her dam, Too Precious, won over 1 1/2 miles.
Carla’s Way will get the mile and love Santa Anita, and she might be positioned closer to the pace than Porta Fortuna. She had surgery to correct a breathing issue following her eighth in Porta Fortuna’s Albany, where Carla’s Way was favored, and after a soft-ground comeback start, she shined in the Rockfel on Sept. 29. Traveling beautifully the whole trip, she won by 2 1/4 lengths over Shuwari, with Ylang Ylang another 2 1/2 lengths back in third. That pair returned to finish first and second in the Group 1 Fillies Mile, and the Rockfel was a Group 1 dressed in Group 2 clothing.
Don’t say nevers: Laulne, Les Pavots, Content
Content does exit the best race of her career, but that came on soft ground, and she only avoided being placed in the lowest tier here because Aidan O’Brien trains her. O’Brien was supposed to have the favorite for this race, Opera Singer, but connections didn’t pre-enter her, and Content has nowhere near the form.
Opera Singer won the Prix Marcel Boussac by five lengths and left in her wake, among others, was Les Pavots. Les Pavots ground out a distant third-place finish trying a distance as far as one mile for the first time in the Boussac and racing over a good course. She probably performed at about the same level as in her previous race, the seven-furlong Prix Calvados, where she finished with a flourish slicing between horses to win going away. The going, however, was heavy that day, Les Pavots might not be at her best on fast ground, and, worst of all, she drew post 14.
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Laulne makes her American debut for an American trainer, Phil D’Amato, after being sold following her most recent race, and she has the best chance among this group. Laulne went along one paced near the front when Les Pavots ran past her in the Prix Calvados, but the Prix Eclipse a month later, on Sept. 16, told a different story. Here, unlike her previous starts, Laulne was held up near the back of the field before coming with a very strong run to nab second, barely beaten by a Group 2-class sprinter, Dawn Charger. Laulne got her final 300 meters in 33.43 seconds, the better part of a second faster than anyone else.
Juvenile
International runners in main body: 1
Win chance: Poor
Ecoro Neo made a remarkable run to finish second in his most recent start, closing from what must have been 20 lengths back with a quarter-mile to run. There’s little doubt he’ll be better suited to this route than that sprint, and the horse might have real talent, but he’s going from a six-furlong maiden loss into the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
Juvenile Turf
International runners in main body: 2
Win chance: Strong
Contenders: River Tiber, Unquestionable
Both Aidan O’Brien-trained colts can win this, and one should. Unquestionable has the made greater progress between the two during the season and has raced seven furlongs around a bend. River Tiber, who debuted with a 10 1/2-length win, has never raced on a turn or past six furlongs. Still, after talking with jockey Ryan Moore, who has ridden both horses, one comes away with the impression River Tiber is the right one.
Unquestionable seemed somewhat babyish and lacking confidence in his earlier races. He had the Railway Stakes won but let Bucanero Fuerte, a good horse no doubt, take it away from him. Moore said the colt banged his head on the starting gate before the Phoenix, accounting for his disappointing showing, and the Group 1 Jean-Luc Lagardere on Oct. 1 marked his best race. Unquestionable pulled somewhat too hard going downhill in the early stages but eventually settled and raced with more purpose than in his previous outings. He just found one rival better on the day, and Rosallion is a nice horse indeed.
Still, River Tiber, who Moore rides, probably has the stronger chance. Connections have full confidence the colt will stay one mile, and River Tiber might be headed to a career peak for a major share of a million bucks.
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