For the connections of 5-2 morning-line favorite Emery and 3-1 second choice Vahva, the Grade 2, $300,000 Chicago Stakes on Saturday night at Churchill Downs is as much about who’s not running as who is. Those two horses exit the Derby City Distaff, where Emery finished fifth, beaten about 10 lengths, and Vahva was seventh by a little more than 12. The Derby City Distaff is a Grade 1. It was no ordinary Grade 1. Kopion won the race by three lengths, earning a 109 Beyer Speed Figure, one point lower than the 110 she’d gotten in her previous race, the co-highest figure in North America this year – until June 6. That day at Saratoga, Ways and Means, third in the Derby City Distaff, her first start following a winter break, trampled solid rivals in the Bed o’ Roses Stakes and got a 111 Beyer. “We’re not facing anything like we faced in the last race,” said Emery’s trainer, Brad Cox. “She’ll fit well with this group.” The Chicago, a seven-furlong dirt contest restricted to older fillies and mares, drew nine other entrants. No Kopion, no Ways and Means, but at least two horses – My Mane Squeeze and Zeitlos – who could give Vahva and Emery more than they want. The post-position draw did Emery no favors: She breaks from the rail under Florent Geroux. Emery possesses tactical, pressing speed, but not enough to make the lead. She’s either in for a favorable trip sitting in the pocket, or a demanding, dirt-eating journey. As for Beyers, Emery’s two highest, a 97 and 96, probably overstate her true performance level in both races. The 97 came when she finished second to Positano Sunset – hardly a divisional star – in the Madison at Keeneland, the 96 in a narrow loss in the Inside Information at Gulfstream Park to Mystic Lake, a horse that Emery, frankly, should’ve handled. :: Access the most trusted data and information in horse racing! DRF Past Performances and Picks are available now. Vahva looks like an equally suspect bet at a similarly short price. The Vahva of one year ago would, barring misfortune, win the Chicago. In fact, she did win it a year ago, coming home more than a length better than Positano Sunset and an even better mare, Society. That followed her career peak, a convincing Derby City Distaff victory that produced a 103 Beyer. Vahva hasn’t raced like the same horse since her 2024 Chicago. She was a tepid third in Society’s Grade 1 Ballerina score, a flat eighth in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf, and then her Derby City Distaff, Vahva’s fifth Churchill start and first defeat. “In hindsight, that was a really, really tough race to come back in, but she had to get started,” trainer Cherie DeVaux said. DeVaux said Vahva likely needed her comeback, that she trains and looks like the Vahva of old. But can Vahva be Vahva again? “We’ll just see where she’s at. This is a place for that, to hopefully get a better gauge on where she is mentally,” DeVaux said. Vahva’s hardly the lone Churchill lover in the Chicago. My Mane Squeeze had just finished a solid third in the Madison, her first start after a winter break, when trainer Mike Maker opined that the race would set her up perfectly for the Derby City Distaff. My Mane Squeeze had won both her Churchill outings. She loved the place, Maker said. Instead, Maker let discretion be the better part of valor, scratching My Mane Squeeze for a start the following weekend in the Ruffian at Aqueduct. A few things to note about her third-place Ruffian finish as the 13-10 favorite. My Mane Squeeze took a real stumble when, according to the official chart, she clipped heels a furlong in. My Mane Squeeze has run best stalking and closing but instead wound up contesting a sluggish pace. And one mile at the Grade 2 level might be pushing up against the filly’s distance ceiling. Zeitlos has four wins and a second from six Churchill starts and despite being a 5-year-old with 18 starts, still looks like an improving horse. Sure, trainer Steve Asmussen judiciously managed Zeitlos to eight wins from her last 11 races, but Zeitlos’s ascendant form played a role. Making her first start after she went beyond her best form finishing seventh in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint, Zeitlos ran fast enough to comfortably win the Skipat about a month ago at Pimlico, but not so fast she can’t improve markedly on Saturday. Brightwork, to date, has only produced her peak form at Saratoga. Mink’s Palace runs well at Churchill but just isn’t fast enough. Claret Beret – priced too low on the morning line at 6-1 – won a one-mile Gulfstream handicap last out by almost 20 lengths. She won’t be winning the Chicago. Neither will Kopion or Ways and Means. They’re not racing – good news for the 11 who are. :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.