Haskell Invitational (Race 12) by Marcus Hersh Will UNTAPABLE really be as high as her 2/1 morning line? She might, but I think had this race been three weeks after her Kentucky Oaks, her price would have been closer to even money. It’s not easy to fathom a nine-length win in a Grade 1 race diminishing a horse’s status, but that seems to have been the case with Untapable’s Mother Goose. And that’s a good thing if you like the filly today, as I do. Truth is, Untapable wasn’t her brilliant self in the Mother Goose, and I really thought she won that race despite struggling with the sandy track at Belmont. She didn’t extend herself like she normally does, didn’t have that awesome dominant fluidity we’ve seen this year, but I don’t think it’s gone for now. I think it’s coming back in the Haskell, and the 2/1 does not reflect the superiority Untapable has demonstrated in her best two-turn races to anything any of her rivals have so far put up. She’s well drawn for a golden stalking trip behind a fast, contested pace, and I think she wins this race. I like ALBANO, too, but having considered the two since their winter campaigns in New Orleans, I just find it hard to see Albano beating Untapable if they both have their best day. I do think Albano is a better horse now than he was over the winter – he certainly appeared to be when last seen on this track in the Pegasus. His connections did right not forcing a Triple Crown bid, and I suspect they will be rewarded with a strong late summer and fall string of performances from a versatile horse that has shown talent all along. I’d peg Albano to settle in not far behind the leaders and make his presence felt at some point. MEDAL COUNT is the race’s proven and best closer, and if he can avoid losing too much ground on both turns, and can adapt to the relatively short Monmouth stretch, he could take down top honors. It was interesting to read trainer Dale Romans suggesting the Haskell could be a launching pad for the rest of Medal Count’s season rather than talking about Sunday’s race as a major goal in and of itself. I am selling on BAYERN, whose breakthrough performance – the race that makes him the 5/2 second choice on the line – came going seven furlongs around one turn at Belmont. If it acts like a one-turn horse, runs like a one-turn horse, and the trainer suggests it’s a one-turn horse – it probably is a one-turn horse. Moreover, it’s hard to see Bayern not getting caught up in a taxing pace with ENCRYPTION, SOCIAL INCLUSION, and WILDCAT RED. I don’t care for any of those three, but IRISH YOU WELL, who has come on steadily the last several months, could crash the trifecta at a price. Matchmaker (Race 9) by Byron King WATSDACHANCES, second to Somali Lemonade last out in the Gallorette at Pimlico May 17 in her seasonal bow, earned a 95 Beyer Speed Figure for that race against unquestionably one of the sharpest female turfers running right now; throw in a U.S. record of three wins, three seconds, two thirds, and two fourths while racing exclusively in stakes and she becomes even more appealing. Millionaire IRISH MISSION also comes off a runner-up finish, coming in a unique two-mile stakes race at Belmont against the males. She certainly performed well, but she could regress on the cutback to 1 1/8 miles – she may have simply handled the lengthy distance better than others last time. Earlier starts this year were respectable but nowhere near as good as her last race. MEDEA has the benefit of race over the track this meet, winning the Grade 3 Eatontown over next-out winner Triple Arch. Another consistent miss, she is a price horse to throw into the exotics. Others capable of earning minor awards include STARSTRUCK, who likely needed a comeback race in her latest, and EMOTIONAL KITTEN, who had a troubled trip when eighth in the Grade 1 Gamely last out at Santa Anita. Monmouth Cup (Race 10) by Marty McGee The two layoff horses in here, Pants On Fire (#2) and Easter Gift (#7), are just two of the what-do-I-do variables in a terrific renewal of the Monmouth Cup. Furthermore, Long River (#3) is the tepid M/L fave, but he’s been something of a disappointment in his last two starts, and he might be one to work around. Chad Brown, with Easter Gift, shows noticeably better numbers with layoff runners than Kelly Breen, but that’s to be taken with a grain of salt. Pants On Fire might be a better horse, period, and moreover, he’s been training at Mth, where Kelly does his best work, and he also comes well-drawn toward the rail with the red-hot Paco up. Of the #2, #3, and #7, the #2 is the most preferred, while Bradester (#4, 5-1 M/L), having run as well as he did behind Itsmyluckyday in the Salvatore Mile, also figures as a major player for Kenneally. Among the fringe players, Micromanage (#5, 4-1 M/L) makes a noteworthy cut-back in distance and could be moving best of all late, while Pick of the Litter (#8, 15-1 M/L) is Dale just taking a shot, but he’s a rock-solid alw. type who’s been flirting with a breakthrough. The play: Let’s use 2, 4, 5, 8 in the horizontals while also boxing them up in all the verticals. Oceanport (Race 11) by Randy Goulding GUYS REWARD didn’t get beat by that much in his only start here in the Grade 2 Monmouth where he earned a 100 Beyer Speed Figure and it was a better field than he is meeting here. The horse that finished second came back to win the Grade 2 Bowling Green at Belmont with a 96 Beyer. The sixth-place finisher also won the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap in his next start. A deep closer, Guys Reward should have fast and contested pace to work with. According to Formulator trainer Dale Romans is 1/5 with horses running in Graded turf stakes at Monmouth the past five years. His win came in the Oceanport last year with Silver Max. MSHAWISH wasn’t able to make much of an impact in the Grade 1 Champions Mile in Medan in his last race but it was a very tough field and he is going to appreciate the easier company he is facing in this spot. The horse he beat three back in the Grade 2 Zabeel Mile finished third to Wise Dan in the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile last Sept., so he would seem to fit nicely here. He has good tactical speed, but doesn’t need the lead, and should get a nice trip sitting just off what figures to be a contested pace. There are a couple of concerns, though. According to Formulator the past five years his trainer Todd Pletcher has an 11 percent strike rate with foreign shippers, and over the same period of time he is 2/20 with horses running in Graded turf stakes at Monmouth. Not terrible numbers, but well below what we’re used to seeing from him. LOCHTE is clearly capable of winning this if he regains the form we saw earlier this year at Gulfstream and Santa Anita where he won and placed in a couple of Grade 1’s. He just didn’t fire when he was favored in his only start here in the Grade 2 Monmouth, but he did run an improved race in his latest at Belmont in an $80K optional race. He could be sitting on a big effort in the third start of his current form cycle, plus, he won the Grade 1 Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap coming back in a similar same time period. FREDERICKSBURG, SLIM SHADEY and JOE TESS all have good speed and if one of them can get away on their own they could be dangerous. We’re going to assume they will cancel each other out, though. MSHAWISH is probably the best horse in the race but it is hard to say how he will handle his new surroundings, and he isn’t a very attractive betting proposition if he goes offanywhere near his morning line odds of 3-1. We are going to try and beat him with GUYS REWARD, who should really benefit from what figures to be a fast and contested pace. LOCHTE also deserves serious consideration, especially if he gets overlooked in the wagering.