San Felipe Stakes (Santa Anita, Race 5) by Marty McGee Clearly the scratch of Bayern (#6) because of a minor injury robs this Kentucky Derby prep of some luster, but it’s still an excellent race. Of the favorites – California Chrome (#4), Kristo (#7), and Midnight Hawk (#9) – the clear preference here is Midnight Hawk, considering he deserves another chance as a beaten favorite behind Candy Boy in the Lewis. His two prior races were terrific, and it’d be exciting to see him rebound with another big one here for Baffert. But what about hearing from another country? Let’s key Midnight Hawk not only with the other chalks, but also with Rprettyboyfloyd (#3) for Nakatani on the stretchout and Schoolofhardrocks (#8) getting first Lasix and Talamo after some pretty flashy works. A $1 tri key of 9 over 3, 4, 7, 8 equals $24, as does a $1 super key. And you can always manipulate other tickets so as to play him in the second-hole, or however you feel most comfortable making it work. Hillsborough Stakes (Tampa Bay, Race 8) by Kenny Peck The two favorites for the Grade 3, $150,000 Hillsborough Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs -- GULSARY (#3) and RIPOSTE (#6) -- are obviously the horses to beat based on Beyers. Their figures stand out compared with most of these, which is why they are the clear favorites on the Morning Line. Both, however, are closers, and this is not a field that is loaded with speed. I gave GULSARY the edge over RIPOSTE on the strength of her running style, as she has a bit more tactical speed, whereas RIPOSTE is a stone closer. But the fear has to be that a horse like CLOUD SCAPES (#4) could steal it. She doesn't have the experience of the two favorites in the race, and this is the best field that she's met yet, but if she's able to shake loose and back down the fractions she may be good enough. Her Beyers are a little light compared with GULSARY and RIPOSTE but that can change in a hurry, with the right set-up. She also figures to be a much better price. She's not the most likely winner -- in fact, GULSARY is my top pick in the race, with RIPOSTE second -- but CLOUD SCAPES might be the right value play if either or both of those runners are overbet.   Gulfstream Park Handicap (Gulfstream, Race 9) by Kenny Peck Just like many cheaper races, this extremely deep edition of the Gulfstream Park Handicap seems to hinge on pace. How one plays it depends greatly on reading the likely trip for FALLING SKY (#4), one of the main speeds in the field. He ran well for 2nd two back at this track and distance, albeit against lesser, and he could still be on the improve after a career-best effort last time in the Gulfstream Park Sprint. The main problem for FALLING SKY -- the close 2nd choice on the Morning Line at 3-1 -- seems to be SR. QUISQUEYANO. Like FALLING SKY, SR. QUISQUEYANO appears to be a one-dimensional speed, as he has not shown that he's wild about passing horses when going long. He figures to be involved early -- especially given the expected race flow, but also because he's at his best when on the lead -- and that could mean a duel with FALLING SKY. That scenario, of course, favors the closers, including Morning Line favorite PALACE MALICE (#8). Unseen since a relatively tough trip in the Breeders' Cup, the 2013 Belmont Stakes winner would certainly benefit from a quick, contested pace, and his most recent Beyers are clearly good enough to win this. The main problem with PALACE MALICE -- aside from the short price -- is that he does seem to be at his best going longer. ITSMYLUCKYDAY (#7) makes his first start since pulling up down the backstretch in his showdown with Verrazano in the Pegasus at Monmouth last year but he has been training well. His tactical speed should mean he's in an ideal spot behind the aforementioned speeds and he does seem very well suited to this one-turn mile distance. He is proven over this track, and this in fact does seem to be his favorite strip. While he may or may not be cranked up to win in his first start coming back from his pelvic injury, ITSMYLUCKYDAY could fall into a victory if the race sets up as expected. One horse to consider at a square price is GOLDEN TICKET (#2). This seems to be the right distance for him, and he's another who not only has Beyers good enough to win it, but he also fits the race flow. Florida Oaks (Tampa Bay, Race 10) by Marty McGee Whether or not you think Testa Rossi (#12) is superior to the other 11 3yo fillies in the main body of this race (and she probably is), wouldn’t a horseplayer be doing the right thing by taking a stand against her in this particular spot? After all, she is taking all the worst of it here – a poor post, trying two turns in her first time off a layoff, shipping in to unfamiliar territory … and surely no value on the tote. That said, let’s give her a token spot “under” on some verticals while simultaneously trying to make a score with several of the other key plays, those being her Chad Brown stablemate, Kitten Kaboodle (#1), Istanford (#9), Miss Besilu (#10), and Ready’s Legend (#11). Key that quartet however you prefer atop tri’s and supers, while sprinkling in the favorite and perhaps a few others, such as Interrupted (#2), Runway Giant (#6), Annulment (#7), and Duff One (#8). Yes, of course, that would be a ridiculously pricey ticket if all of those were used, but you can whittle it down with some personal preferences and hopefully put yourself in a position to make some jack by taking a stand against Testa Rossi.   Tampa Bay Derby (Tampa Bay, Race 11) by Marcus Hersh Is CONQUEST TITAN really going to be the 7-2 second choice behind favored 3-1 SURFING USA as the Tampa Bay Derby morning line predicts? Well, that would be value on Conquest Titan, then, wouldn’t it? Because from this chair, Conquest Titan looks very much like the most likely winner. This is an interesting horse. Look first at his $475,000 purchase price at a 2-year-old in training sale last March. Then look at this 4-5 debut odds in an early-season 2-year-old maiden dash, where he showed brilliant early speed. To fetch that kind of money, Conquest Titan must have breezed very, very fast at the sale, and he clearly had turned in flashy works before his first race to go off at odds of 4-5. In other words, he was presumed to be a precocious speedball. My goodness, how that situation has changed. The colt that was on a debut lead through an opening quarter-mile in 21.40 seconds (!) was last of 11 for the first half of the two-turn Holy Bull Stakes last out. The Mark Casse barn has clearly totally changed Conquest Titan’s running style, and, more importantly, the colt has gone along with it. He’s by Birdstone and has plenty of stamina in his pedigree, and his willingness to ration his ample speed is a huge plus at this stage of the game Keep in mind, also, he lost his footing at the start of his Nov. 30 allowance-race win over General A Rod, who nearly won the Fountain of Youth, and a wide post in the Holy Bull necessitated taking back farther than would’ve been ideal. The thought is he can easily show better positional speed under different circumstances – namely, these – while probably not diluting his late run. The only horse in front of him in the Holy Bull, Cairo Prince, might not win the Kentucky Derby, but right now he’s the leading 8.5 – 9 furlong 3-year-old in the country, in my view. The horse behind him last out, Intense Holiday, was a very good winner of the Feb. 22 Risen Star, and the thought now is all the other horses in the Tampa Bay Derby will be behind Conquest Titan on Saturday. SURFING USA is an interesting horse. There was no shame in losing to Fountain of Youth show horse Top Billing in a decent-paced Gulfstream route allowance race, though Surfing USA appeared to reinforce the impression he gave in two starts last year: He is a tactical speed horse without a lot of gears. His pedigree looks fine for 8.5 furlongs, and of course he’s eligible to improve in his second start of the season. He’s worked fast since his pace-setting comeback run, has an inside draw, and surely will be among the early leaders. I would use him underneath in gimmicks. Rail-drawn RING WEEKEND had two lousy posts at Gulfstream this winter, has a much better draw today, has raced on Lasix in only three of his five starts, and has an improving profile for a strong barn. The 15-1 morning line feels real, and I will toss him in the exotics salad, too. HY KODIAK WARRIOR won’t be as high as 10-1 but should be used in horizontal gimmicks, too. He’s first Lasix and stayed nine furlong decently when third last out to two horses better than most he faces here. EAST HALL’S late run for fourth in the Holy Bull felt clunk-along and somewhat empty, and I don’t trust him to reproduce it. The Sam Davis left me cold upon its completion. Harpoon was a close fourth with a wide trip in that race, and his poor showing last weekend in the Gotham did nothing to contradict the initial impression. Thus, I’m against the Sam Davis one-two, Vinceremos and Cousin Stephen.   San Carlos Stakes (Santa Anita, Race 7) by Byron King A terrific renewal of the San Carlos is on tap Saturday, going as the seventh race, two races before the Big Cap. The preference here is to go with the hot horse, WILD DUDE, who has rattled off three straight wins for Hollendorfer, including twice over this track in 2014. He gamely outfinished Secret Circle, the 2013 Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner, in winning the Palos Verdes last time out, and he doesn’t have to contend with him again in this spot. SHAKIN IT UP is a three-time graded winner and at the top of his game after taking the Malibu and the Strub, but those races were restricted by age – with the Malibu being for 3-year-olds and the Strub for 4-year-olds. Now he is taking on older and sometimes more experienced rivals. Still, he’s mighty good. SAHARA SKY was one of the best sprinter/milers over the first half of 2013, and carried his form east, too, winning the Met Mile. A flat return in the Palos Verdes when fifth left much to be desired, however. Perhaps he merely needed the race after being away since May. Kilroe Mile (Santa Anita, Race 8) by Michael Hammersly A few weeks ago we tabbed, in this spot, WINNING PRIZE to take the Grade 2 Arcadia and the South American import came through with flying colors. Surely Satuday’s Grade 1 Kilroe Mile figures a stiffer test but hey, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it, right? WINNING PRIZE has the potential to be a budding star in the U.S. for trainer Neil Drysdale. The South American import was no secret when he came from Argentina last summer. He was already a three-time Grade 1 winner there in 2012. He surfaced in the U.S. at Del Mar last summer and blasted a fine bunch of optional claimers. That was enough for his connections to ship him to Keeneland for the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile, knowing FULL well that there they would run into Horse of the Year Wise Dan. A fierce storm took that race off the turf onto the drenched synthetic track but they had already shipped so they figured, what the heck, let’s give the footing a whirl. And actually, he didn’t run badly at all, finishing fourth. But surely that’s not his game. They returned to SoCal and went next in the Grade 2 Citation at Hollywood Park. He set the pace and stayed on gamely to be a sharp third, beaten less than a length by Kilroe foe SILENTIO. That was also at 1 1/16 miles. Shortened up to a mile for the Grade 2 Arcadia he got a dream trip sitting second while REGALLY READY (who he faces again here) sprinted off to a clear lead, reeled in that rival in the lane, took over and drew clear to win smartly, earning a big 105 Beyer. That sets him up ideally for this and he may fall into a similar trip as again REGALLY READY figures to do what he does best – use his speed and try to steal away. If anything WINNING PRIZE has a right to improve and do even better. But that leads to the lone bad news: he may well go favored here. At least the depth of competition may keep him in the 5-2 to 3-1 range. Of course, he may actually NEED to do better to win this. SILENTIO, who foiled him in the Citation, has been pointed specifically for this race ever since. Trainer Gary Mandella purposely freshened him with this race in mind. He was an excellent second in this race last year, beaten just a nose by SUGGESTIVE BOY, who is back to defend his title. Not only does he have that and his Citation win to validate his ability, but prior to the Citation he rallied well to finish third in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Mile, only 1 1/2 lengths behind winner and soon-to-again-be Horse of the Year Wise Dan. In other words, he’s good. SUGGESTIVE BOY, like WINNING PRIZE, came from Argentina with a gaudy resume (won three straight Grade 1s there in 2011). He brought that form with him, topped off by a game tally in this race last year. Alas, after that he suffered a splint injury and wasn’t seen again for 11 months. He resurfaced in the Grade 2 Arcadia here Feb. 1, sat midpack and finished evenly to be fifth behind WINNING PRIZE. But he surely needed that race and with that under his belt and three strong works since (including a bullet :59.60 move on turf here Feb. 20) he looks primed for a spirited defense of his title. One scary runner is shipper ZA APPROVAL. After knocking heads with some toughies on the East Coast, he came West last year and they found he’s best on firm footing. Well, they’re back for more and he’ll certainly get that kind of ground here. REGALLY READY was once a top turf sprinter. He isn’t quick enough these days for that game but has flourished since moving to this mile trip. He couldn’t fend off WINNING PRIZE in the Arcadia but his speed means he’ll almost surely be in control of tempo here and his good third in the Arcadia shows he can carry that speed, thus deserving more than a little respect exotics-wise. Santa Anita Handicap (Santa Anita, Race 9) by Marcus Hersh The morning line, with a 9-5 favorite, a 2-1 second choice, and a 5-2 third choice, views this as a three-horse race, but that’s not how I see it. No disrespect to a wonderful gelding who has put together an admirable career, but I’m approaching the Santa Anita Handicap with the idea that Game on Dude never is getting back to his best form. I know, I know – Game on Dude was pressured through a decent pace in the San Antonio, and when he started to fold his tent, the jockey wrapped up and saved him for another day. Sorry – not buying that narrative. That pace on that racing surface against that competition has produced Game On Dude romps over and over during his rich past. That he threw in the towel so soon after another Breeders’ Cup flop and a brave Clark that had a one-last-gasp feel to it suggest that real decline has set in now. That leaves things to Mucho Macho Man and Will Take Charge. No other horse, barring real failure from the top two, can win this race, though among the others, Hear the Ghost might not be fully exposed, and could outrun his odds. He also might hold the key to how this race is going to unfold. Prime question: What is Gary Stevens going to do on Mucho Macho Man? Does he go for the lead or take a light hold? Game On Dude almost certainly is going forward. Hear The Ghost is second time blinkers with a sharp recent work, and he’s coming out of a fast-paced mile: There’s a strong chance he leaves running, too, and is lapped on Game on Dude from the start. If that’s how thing shake out, things get a touch tricky for Mucho Macho Man, in my opinion, the reason being that Will Take Charge is a more natural mile-and-a-quarter horse than he. Stevens could be left with no great option. If he goes to the lead and gets caught up in quick pace, Mucho Macho Man might start coming back to Will Take Charge in the final furlong. If he takes back and sits just behind Game on Dude and Hear the Ghost, he has to find a way out to truly get first run on Will Take Charge and not turn into the stretch on close to even terms. And here’s another thing: Mucho Macho Man is a 6-year-old with 24 career starts, Will Take Charge a 4-year-old with 16 starts. Will Take Charge didn’t become the Will Take Charge he is today until last July. Yes, he lost his last race, but Lea was truly remarkable in the Donn Handicap, and Will Take Charge is almost certainly better suited to 10 furlongs at Santa Anita than nine at Gulfstream. As wonderful as Mucho Macho Man was in the BC Classic, and as easily as he won his only start this year, Will Take Charge is the horse with all the upside and, perhaps, the subtle edges, Saturday – and he’s the likely winner of the Santa Anita Handicap.