Honey Fox Stakes (Gulfstream, Race 10) by Marty McGee Wow, doesn’t this one have a ton of interesting variables? Is Centre Court (#6) ready, and is she still a Grade 1-caliber mare? Isn’t Tapicat (#7) in peak form, having run very creditably in a SoCal Grade 2 after leaving out of SoFla with a stakes win over the GP turf? Isn’t Triple Charm (#2) primed for a peak effort in her third start following a layoff? And is Parranda (#5) good enough to handle what amounts to another big class raise? Having the right answers to these questions could be rewarding indeed. The guess from this corner is that Centre Court will indeed come back firing fresh – Rusty told me about a month ago that if the mare “has one misstep” that she will be retired – and that Parranda will not be good enough to withstand all the opposing speed after getting away on ridiculously easy fractions in her last two triumphs. Let’s keep the play simple for this one by taking big exactas of 6-2 and 6-7; smaller increments reversing those (2-6, 7-6); a small saver box of 2-7; and, realistically, any expanded greed-up variations (i.e., tri and super) using those primary numbers. Azeri Stakes (Oaklawn, Race 8) by Marty McGee Probably the most pressing question about this one is: Is On Fire Baby the same horse she was last year when she won the Apple Blossom off a lengthy layoff? Highly skeptical here, especially given how poorly she ran in her 2 races (she finished ahead of a grand total of one opponent) after getting very sick last summer. By eliminating On Fire Baby (#7, 7-2 M/L) from the equation, there’s value to be had here. Close Hatches (#1) is the obvious class of the race and comes favorably drawn with the rail after firing bullets at Payson for HOF trainer Mott; Rosario sees fit to travel; compelled to back with great confidence. The play: Cold-punch Close Hatches over the OP-loving Don’t Tell Sophia (#4; she’s 4-1-1 from 6 local starts, wow) in tri’s and supers by using all but On Fire Baby in this fashion: 1 with 4 with 2/3/5/6; and, 1 with 2/3/5/6 with 4; and more imaginative variations thereof, if so preferred.   Razorback Handicap (Oaklawn, Race 9) by Byron King GOVENOR CHARLIE won the Sunland Derby last year for Baffert and then went to the sidelines after a non-effort in the Preakness. Out all the way until January, he returned with a runner-up finish behind Malibu winner Shakin It Up in the Grade 2 Strub, getting a little tired late, not unexpected; steady works since despite being away since Jan. 18 – just thinking his connections didn’t want to run him in the 1 ¼-mile Santa Anita Handicap and have simply been waiting on a race like this one. GOLDEN LAD has been first or second in six straight races and was a game allowancewinner over next-out winner Suns Out Guns Out Feb. 5 at Gulfstream for Pletcher; looks similar to Red Rifle, who Pletcher successfully shipped to Houston off some allowance tries to win the Maxxam Gold Cup there. The combacking TAPTOWNE is a speedy, classy horse and racing over his home track of Oaklawn, but hasn’t started since November and like so many Oaklawn horses this cold winter, has missed a little bit of training time due to frozen tracks. Of course, his layoff is just but a short vacation compared to the year-long hiatus CALLED TO SERVE took after a third-place finish in last year’s Big Cap at Santa Anita.   Santa Margarita Stakes (Santa Anita, Race 7) by Michael Hammersly For the most part this group of distaffers has been taking turns at the trough while champion Beholder is away. There’s little separating these; the last few events between them have been determined by a break here and there. A favorable pace. A better trip. Some trouble at a crucial juncture. So in keeping with that theme, after seeing the SoCal’s top distaff distance races in recent months taken by Broken Sword (Grade 2 Bayakoa at Betfair at Hollywood Park), Golden Production (Paseana here), SPELLBOUND (Grade 2 La Canada here) and IOTAPA (Grade 2 Santa Maria here) it appears time for FIFTYSHADESOFHAY to find the spotlight. The 4-year-old daughter of Pulpit had a super 2013 and handled herself well against a superb class of fillies, facing champion Beholder and top-class gals such as Princess of Sylmar and Pure Fun. And she’s had some circumstances work against her in her last three starts, all losses, two of them as the heavy favorite. In the Grade 2 Indiana Oaks at Indiana Downs Oct. 5 she dueled through brisk splits as the 2-5 favorite and paid the price, fading to third. She bobbled significantly at the start of the Grade 2 Bayakoa at Betfair at Hollywood Park as the 1.10-1 favorite to get away very poorly. To her credit she ran on well for second to the sharp Broken Sword. She came here for the Grade 2 La Canada Jan. 19 and again it was early trouble that did her in. She got squeezed back so instead of being forwardly positioned, which is her normal tact, she was well back. Again, to her credit she kept to her task very well, finishing fourth but beaten just a length. A better start could have made the difference. Her trainer Bob Baffert after that decided to skip the Santa Maria and wait for this. She’s worked nicely and best of all she could fall into a great trip. There isn’t much speed signed up here. IOTAPA just won the Santa Maria wire-to-wire and figures to go to the lead again and try to play keep-away. The presence of the quick Argentine distaffer MISS SERENDIPITY may mean more early pressure on IOTAPA, and not a reprise of that nice cozy trip she got in the Santa Maria. Also, LET FAITH ARISE has shown speed on occasion and they don’t figure to just let IOTAPA lollygag out front as she did in the Santa Maria. Of course, with a good start, FIFTYSHADESOFHAY has ample tactical speed. There’s no reason to rush up and duel with IOTAPA, but she can sit just off the lead and save ground until rider Martin Garcia decides to crank up the heat. And if anything Saturday’s longer trip (1 1/8 miles) plays to FIFTYSHADESOFHAY’s favor. Again, it looks like the situation is ripe for this to be her turn. And then they can all start worrying about when Beholder comes back. IOTAPA is a proven commodity and while she led all the way to win the Santa Maria note that’s the only time she’s done so – her other strong races have been from just off the pace. In other words, if, for example, MISS SERENDIPITY sends then IOTAPA will be quite happy to sit off her hip and like FIFTYSHADESOFHAY pounce when her rider, Joe Talamo, sees fit. A strong 1:12.20 6-furlong work here March 10 says she holds her edge. LET FAITH ARISE ran splendidly to be second in the Grade 2 La Canada and Grade 2 Santa Maria. She’s shown ample tactical speed and shown she’ll keep fighting it out, and like IOTAPA has worked strongly since to indicate those two tough losses did not take anything out of her. Rebel Stakes (Oaklawn, Race 10) by Marcus Hersh Unless JET CAT is scratched in favor of a Sunday allowance race, it’s a field of eight for the Rebel Stakes, Oaklawn’s prep for the Arkansas Derby. Not big field, but a case could be made for six of the entrants. I don’t have major knocks on either of the favorites, TAPITURE and STRONG MANDATE. Strong Mandate was beaten more than four lengths by Tapiture in the Feb. 17 Southwest, but comfortably handled him at Saratoga last summer and is the better proposition Saturday. At 5-1 to Strong Mandate’s 1-1, Tapiture was the value in the Southwest, but he could be favored over Strong Mandate this time, and circumstances worked in Tapiture’s favor last month. Both horses came off a winter break, but while Tapiture did almost all his Southwest preparation in New Orleans, Strong Mandate wintered at Oaklawn. Fair Grounds lost a couple days’ training this winter, but Oaklawn lost far more than that. Tapiture probably had a fitness edge going into the race, and he definitely had a trip edge in the running. Strong Mandate started his own trouble by breaking slowly, which led to a very wide run around the first turn, and, eventually, to a taxing middle move down the backstretch. Strong Mandate lost more ground on the far turn while Tapiture hugged the fence from start to finish, contesting only a moderate pace. If the colts are comparable in fundamental quality, no wonder Tapiture won that round of battle. I still don’t understand Strong Mandate’s dud in the Champagne, but he ran a strong race to finish third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, where a terrible draw, a wide run on the first turn, and a suicidal pace led to defeat. His two wins at Saratoga stamped him as an elite member of his generation, and Strong Mandate’s pedigree, despite some contrary hints in his racing, still says he’ll excel in routes. Tapiture, who has more speed in his pedigree than Strong Mandate, has won consecutive two-turn graded stakes, but still isn’t fully relaxing early in his races. On the one hand, that’s a concern, but on the other, it raises Tapiture’s ceiling, provided he figures things out. I also find it difficult predicting how Tapiture will react to running a lifetime best coming back from a layoff. Regression is possible, but Tapiture appeared to have physically matured during his winter break: He might just be a stronger and better, and who knows: Maybe the Southwest wasn’t even a peak performance. On pedigree, RIDE ON CURLIN should be a two-turn horse, but he hasn’t looked like one, though I believe there’s more to him than he showed in the Southwest. KOBE’S BACK is a tricky read. His lone two-turn start is a throw-out, but he carries the scent of a one-run sprinter. He’s shipping and stretching out while facing deeper competition than ever before. I’ll take my chances playing against him. That leaves two horses to boost exacta and trifecta payoffs – if not win the race outright. Neither STREET STRATEGY nor HOPPERTUNITY has run as well as Tapiture or Strong Mandate, but both are high-upside horses. Talking about Hoppertunity means talking about the Rebel’s race shape – which is murky. Five of the horses could show early speed, but none have to show early speed. The rail horse probably does, but he might not be good enough to carry the field very far on the front end. Hoppertunity needs a pace. He didn’t get one in the Risen Star, and that proved his undoing, though the colt has more positional speed than he showed that day. His maiden win (and the gallop out after the finish) was excellent, and I’ll scatter some Hoppertunity play on top of and underneath exactas and trifectas. I’ll do the same with Street Strategy, the locally based colt with only a maiden win to his credit, but who has displayed enough talent that the jump into a graded race doesn’t seem crazy. Street Strategy hasn’t shown brilliant speed or a big turn of foot, but he has a wonderful rhythmic stride and a relaxed way of going that suggest he could adapt to a clean stalking trip in the Rebel, and that longer distances will suit him. He’s had a nice six-week break since his second-start maiden win, and those two races plus a series of solid-looking workouts could form the platform for a timely jump to a higher performance level.