Byron King's 2019 Preakness analysis

Hall of Famer trainer Bob Baffert has won the Preakness seven times and looks poised to add a record eighth with IMPROBABLE in Saturday’s race. Although the colt’s trouble-free Kentucky Derby finish might have been somewhat disappointing – he was fifth past the wire before being elevated to fourth upon the disqualification of Maximum Security – he does not need to close the gap on the rivals that beat him in Louisville. They simply aren’t here. This year’s Preakness not only lacks a Derby winner, it lacks a disqualified Derby winner, a runner-up, or even a third-place finisher.

Look through the race records of the 13 starters in the Preakness and Improbable rates on top in key statistical categories. He leads the field in earnings with $769,520. He is the race’s only Grade 1 winner, having won the Los Alamitos Futurity last year. And he owns consistently the highest Beyer Speed Figures, having posted Beyers of between 96 and 99 in all four of his two-turn races, while other leading contenders sport only one or two figures in that vicinity.

He has had limited rest heading into the Preakness, like the three other Derby competitors that continue onto Baltimore, but no one in modern times has been better than Baffert in having horses ready for the two-week Derby-to-Preakness turnaround.

Preakness newcomers ANOTHERTWISTAFATE and OWENDALE, second and first in the Grade 3 Lexington on April 13 at Keeneland, have the number power to suggest they are threats. Anothertwistafate ran a 95 Beyer in the Lexington, topped by a 98 by Owendale, figures that, if repeated, give them a fighting chance versus Improbable.

Although Anothertwistafate was beaten by Owendale in the Lexington, he performed honorably in defeat. A speed horse in a race filled with front-runners, he was rated, which proved detrimental when his opponents quickly surrounded him in traffic. This resulted in him being boxed in until early stretch, at which point hard-charging Owendale had already come swooping past on his way to victory.

Regardless of the traffic Anothertwistafate experienced, Owendale acts legit. He improved his route record to 3 for 6 in taking the Lexington, doing so with a speed figure more commonly seen from a spring 3-year-old winner at the Grade 2 or Grade 1 level.

Two-time stakes winner WAR OF WILL also is a Preakness contender, though he seems likely to be an overbet second favorite behind Improbable, with the public likely to pounce on him after witnessing his second-turn tango with Maximum Security in a rough Kentucky Derby, where he crossed the wire eighth